CNY

Chinese Stocks Bludgeoned!

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Image: Large cap Chinese equities are now back to levels first reached more than 15 years ago on a price-only basis, to levels first attained in early 2006. By Brian Nelson, CFA Successful investing is as much about selecting big winners such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) as it is about avoiding big losers – and wow have Chinese stocks been bludgeoned! The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) traded down nearly 10% on October 24, 2022, putting its 5-year declines at a whopping 50%+, on a price-only basis. The FXI is now back to levels, on a price-only basis, first reached at the beginning of 2006, more than 15 years ago. We don’t include any Chinese ADRs in … Read more

Currency: Cases in Probabilistic Thinking

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The rally in the Mexican peso relative to the US dollar during the first Trump-Clinton debate of 2016 showcased the increased likelihood of a Clinton victory, in light of Trump’s current political agenda. Instances like this, where currency markets serve to act as a probability indicator of the likelihood of a future event, have occurred through the course of history, the most fasinating of which happened during the American Civil War and with Confederate scrip specifically. Image Source: Bloomberg, “Mexican Peso Gives Clearest Signal Trump Lost Debate“ By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we talk a lot about how markets act as “discounting” mechanisms of the probability of future events, and more specifically as it relates to stocks, how a … Read more