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Alpha-Creating Hasbro-Hanesbrands?

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Understanding some of our recent moves in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and the context of the Hasbro-Hanesbrands alpha-generating trade-off…how can this be, right? By Brian Nelson, CFA Every reader is different with a different perspective, time horizon, and goals, and I try to provide as much context and background as possible in my writings for those reasons and more. We won’t always get everything right every time (nobody does), but I think your knowing how and why we do things (and being the judge) is par for the course with any membership. Gaining your trust is very important to me, and our team works hard each and every day to do so. Shortly before the release of the Dividend … Read more

Alert: Trading MLPs, Adding Boeing, Adding Hanesbrands

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Image Source: Ken Teegardin We’re on the move January 26 in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I hope that you are doing great! We’re on the move January 26 with three new additions to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Many of you have read our “5 Shocking Stock Market Predictions for 2017,” and consistent with what we think may happen this year, we’re putting some cash to work. First, let’s talk Boeing (BA). We love the aerospace giant, and its recent dividend hike of 30%+ caught our attention in a big way. The company’s backlog is tremendous and its free cash flow generation is top notch. Boeing’s diversified exposure to both commercial aerospace and … Read more

Boeing’s Lift Off, Lockheed’s Caution, and United Tech’s Outlook

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Image Source: Rob Buhlman Just how healthy is the commercial aerospace market? Very — if the size of Boeing’s backlog is any indication. Let’s have a look. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2016, we wrote an extensive update on the commercial aerospace market, “Boeing Declares Victory But Farnborough Disappoints,” and we encourage those that are digging into this follow-up note to read that piece first before proceeding. In this note, dated Wednesday, January 25, we’d like to build on that piece and update investors on a few insights we’ve gathered within the aerospace market. First, what was once a key company to assess commercial aerospace demand is no longer. As of November 1, Alcoa (AA) has been severed into … Read more

5 Shocking Stock Market Predictions for 2017

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Image Source: Claudia Dea  Valuentum: 2017 Is the Year of Evangeline Adams By Brian Nelson, CFA “Entrepreneurs are never satisfied. They want to do things better. They strive for perfection and use all the ingenuity to their command to achieve it.” – J.W. Marriott My Inbox Was Overflowing with Kindness Your positive replies to my last email, “Words Cannot Express How I Feel” were simply incredible. My inbox was flooded with so many emails, so many kind words. There were so many that I’m still working through them. If you haven’t received a personal reply, plan on getting one. You’re very important to me. It’s quite possible that I may very well be the luckiest man to have such wonderful … Read more

Is It Time or Timing in the Market?

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Image Source: Dimitris Kalogeropoylos By Brian Nelson, CFA Since joining the workforce after undergraduate studies, those that will be turning 30 years’ old during 2017 will have never witnessed a meaningful bear market, large down year, or even a substantial “correction” in the stock market during their working lives. That’s right — many workers that were born in the mid-1980s when Ronald Reagan was President are probably starting to believe that they’ve found the secret to investing success and that broader US markets only go up (or down just a little at times, but they always recover and go higher). No matter if this assessment of their opinion of the markets is true or not may not matter. At the … Read more

Warren Buffett Is Back Into Airlines, Should You?

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Warren Buffett has changed his mind about airline stocks… In this 10-minute podcast, the Valuentum analyst team talks all about the hazards of the airline business model from substantial operating leverage to the risks of volatile jet fuel costs to bankruptcies and beyond. The team also highlights the long-term passenger growth prospects of the sector, and recent consolidation that has brewed a more optimistic tone from industry observers. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here. Ticckerized for airline-related equities around the globe. Brian Nelson, CFA: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly requires significant capital to engender the growth and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. There’s a durable competitive advantage that has proven … Read more

Opinion: China-US Trade Augmented, Not Paralyzed Under Trump

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Image Source: Fuzzy Gerdes By Brian Nelson, CFA “(Trump’s) tough rhetoric may just be setting the negotiations table with China (and Mexico, too), and Negotiations 101 says you start far away from the middle, and then you compromise to get what you truly want.” Nobody wins from a trade war, and business tycoon and President-elect Donald Trump knows this. It’s Business 101. Many believe, including us, that imposing steep tariffs on imports from China (MCHI, EWH, FXI) had been merely campaign rhetoric to win over votes, but many market participants are still positioning themselves for some degree of fallout nonetheless. China itself is not taking chances either. The country’s state-backed newspaper Global Times fired a shot across the bow November … Read more

Video: An Overview of Our 16-page Stock Research Reports

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Can’t view the video walk-through of our 16-page reports on your mobile device? Download the Puffin Web Browser App from Apple free. Click here. Unable to display content. Adobe Flash is required.

Understanding the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Designation

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“Among the countless finance degrees around the world, the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification has become the gold standard.” – Financial Times, 13 August 2010 “[The] qualification is roughly equivalent to a specialized postgraduate finance degree, including a mixture of economics, ethics, law, and accountancy… Whereas there are tens of thousands of finance degrees available around the world, ranging from the excellent to the worthless, there is only one CFA, managed and examined by an American association of financial professionals, the CFA Institute.” – the Economist From the CFA Institute: “The Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charter is an investment credential that, for more than 60 years, has been the global standard for embodying the integrity, dedication, and advanced skills needed to … Read more

Alcoa Continues Swoon, Revises Aerospace 2016 Outlook to 6%-8% Expansion

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Image Source: Boeing; image source: Alcoa Alcoa (AA) kicked off first-quarter 2016 earnings season April 12, but nobody reading our work should have much interest in shares. Our $10 fair value estimate for the company explains the lack of opportunity, and we laid in out in no uncertain terms in April 2015 that we thought, “The Time to Consider Owning Alcoa Has Passed.” Even a few months before that write-up, we said the aluminum giant was trading at a peak multiple on peak earnings, a classic valuation “no-no,” and since that time, shares of Alcoa have fallen more than 40%, “Alcoa Kicks Off Fourth Quarter (2014) Earnings Season:” From our Jan 13, 2015 article: Would we ever considering owning Alcoa … Read more