Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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May 20, 2020

ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events
Image: Breaking out to new highs, Facebook is a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (which includes our favorite capital appreciation ideas in a portfolio setting). The social media giant is surging on news of a new Shops feature, something we've been expecting and raving about with respect to its potential for years--as we maintain our view that, anti-trust considerations aside, Facebook is poised to become the "new Internet." The high end of our fair value estimate range for Facebook is nearly $290, and we would not be surprised if the company eventually reaches those levels. Note: PayPal, another big weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, has been a huge winner of late, too. The value of our research remains heavily tilted toward proficiency in enterprise valuation and technical/momentum indicators, portfolio construction, idea generation, individual stock selection, and assessing dividend health and resilience, among other things. ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events: Unequivocally Bullish, S&P Target Range Was Withdrawn Last Month, Continued Focus on Individual Stock Selection with "Moaty" Operations, Huge Net Cash Positions, Strong Expected Future Free Cash Flows, Established Recurring Business Models, and Otherwise Attractive Economic Castles. Big Cap Tech and Large Cap "Growth" Remain Our Favorite Allocations.

May 14, 2020

Digital Realty Trust is Holding Up Quite Well
Image Shown: Shares of Digital Realty Trust Inc, a holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios, have outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the past year and that’s before taking dividend considerations into account. On May 7, the data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Digital Realty Trust reported first-quarter 2020 earnings. Though the firm’s near-term guidance disappointed investors, management communicated that the medium- and long-term trajectory of Digital Realty’s financial and operational performance remained strong. Furthermore, its liquidity position and its dividend coverage continued to be rock-solid, particularly after factoring in the data center REIT’s ongoing access to equity markets and lack of near-term debt maturities. Data centers are generally considered “essential” activities around the world given we live in the digital age and these assets have continued to operate during the pandemic. Shares of DLR yield ~3.4% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing.

May 13, 2020

Realty Income Signals Turbulence Ahead, Shores Up Liquidity Position
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On May 4, the real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corp posted first-quarter 2020 earnings that saw its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) per share jump by over 7% year-over-year, hitting $0.78 last quarter. Realty Income pays out a monthly dividend, and shares of O yield ~5.1% as of this writing. We like the REIT’s business model, which invests in single-tenant commercial properties, and view Realty Income as well-positioned to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, we caution that its near-term financial performance will come under fire from some of its tenants no longer being able to (or willing to) pay rent due in part to the economic downturn. As roughly half of its tenants carry investment-grade credit ratings, Realty Income is in a better position than some of its peers. Most of Realty Income’s tenants have continued to pay rent during the pandemic, at least during the early stages of the crisis, and the REIT is working with its troubled tenants to find a solution that suites the interests of both parties.

Apr 29, 2020

ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” -- The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back
Image Source: BEA. Real GDP fell at an annual pace of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. We’re taking the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested,” scaling up our existing positions to reflect that status. We plan to consider put options to hedge against downside risk, if or when the time comes. Moral hazard continues to run rampant, and the Fed and Treasury may have no choice but to continue artificially propping up this market, even buying stocks through certain vehicles, if necessary. Having warned members about the impending “Great Crash of 2020” and identifying savvy opportunities near the bottom, we are now withdrawing our S&P 500 target range as we move now to focus more on individual ideas through this turbulence. We expect to continue to identify opportunities for relative outperformance. 2019 was one of the best years in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio yet. In the Exclusive, we just registered our 25th consecutive monthly short idea in a row that has worked out. The markets may go much lower from here before we go higher again, but the Fed and Treasury won’t let this market go down in the longer run, in our view--even as we navigate a Depression-type economic environment in the near term. Stay the course.

Apr 25, 2020

Emergency Update on COVID-19
President of Investment Research at Valuentum, Brian Nelson provides an emergency update on COVID-19. He talks about how policymakers have dropped the ball thus far, and why investors should not let their guards down, despite what has been a nice bounce from the March 23 bottom.

Apr 22, 2020

What To Do Now?
Let's get President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's thoughts...

Apr 19, 2020

ICYMI -- Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?
President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report.

Apr 12, 2020

ICYMI -- Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution
President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of "Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation" explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside.

Apr 9, 2020

Digital Realty’s Growth Outlook Improving, Shares Near All-Time Highs
Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – March 2020 IR Presentation. Digital Realty Trust is a holding in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, and its shares have performed quite well of late with DLR trading near all-time highs as of this writing. Year-to-date, DLR is up ~26% while the S&P 500 is down ~13% as of this writing. Demand for data centers is surging as the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is forcing households to stay indoors, which in turn is increasing demand for video streaming services, telecommunications offerings, and other activities that are voracious consumers of data. During these harrowing times, we hope members and their loved ones are staying safe as we ride out the pandemic. Shares of DLR yield roughly 3.0% as of this writing.

Mar 30, 2020

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?
Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. We established an S&P 500 target of ~2,550 in late February and more formally established a target range of 2,350-2,750 in the March edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter, prior to the crash. As predicted, the S&P 500 crashed to the mid-point of our S&P 500 target range of 2,350-2,750, now trading at ~2,590 at this moment. We continue to emphasize that panic selling during this crisis may continue to 2,000 on the S&P, while we emphasize that the range of fair value outcomes for equities has increased, both to the upside and to the downside. Let's recap the crash in bullet-point fashion, and explain what investors can expect next.