Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 15, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea Realty Income Is on the Rebound
Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – August 2021 IR Presentation. Realty Income, “The Monthly Dividend Company,” has paid out a dividend over the past 610+ consecutive months and shares of O yield a nice ~4.0% as of this writing. We are big fans of its pending merger with VEREIT and its international expansion plans as these endeavors will significantly improve both Realty Income’s growth runway and the resilience of its business model going forward. We continue to like Realty Income as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and appreciate the REIT’s latest guidance boost. On a final note, we are keeping an eye on its pending merger with VEREIT.

Apr 8, 2021

The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."

Feb 26, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 26
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 21, 2021

Two High-Quality REITs Report Earnings: Crown Castle and Digital Realty
Image Shown: Crown Castle International Corp. forecasts that its core financial metrics will continue to grow in 2021. Image Source: Crown Castle International Corp. – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. To avoid many of the risks inherent when seeking out high-yielding income generating opportunities, we focus on locating firms with resilient business models that can churn out meaningful cash flows in almost any environment. Crown Castle and Digital Realty Trust are two high-quality REITs with nice yields and promising outlooks. We continue to like exposure to both CCI and DLR in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Sep 3, 2020

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years
Image Source: http://www.epictop10.com/. "When I left as director in the equity and credit department at Morningstar in 2011, I thought I knew a whole heck of a lot about investing. I felt like I was one in the top 5-10 in the world as it relates to the category of practical knowledge of enterprise valuation (maybe include Koller at McKinsey, Mauboussin at Counterpoint, and Damadoran at Stern on this list). After all, I oversaw the valuation infrastructure of a department that used the process extensively, and the firm was among just a few that used enterprise valuation systematically. Then, at Valuentum, our small team would go on to build/update 20,000+ more enterprise valuation models. There can always be someone else out there, of course, but I don't think anybody has worked within the DCF model as much as I have across so many different companies. That said, through the past near-10 years managing Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios, I've also learned a number of things to become an even better portfolio manager." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

May 14, 2020

Digital Realty Trust is Holding Up Quite Well
Image Shown: Shares of Digital Realty Trust Inc, a holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios, have outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the past year and that’s before taking dividend considerations into account. On May 7, the data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Digital Realty Trust reported first-quarter 2020 earnings. Though the firm’s near-term guidance disappointed investors, management communicated that the medium- and long-term trajectory of Digital Realty’s financial and operational performance remained strong. Furthermore, its liquidity position and its dividend coverage continued to be rock-solid, particularly after factoring in the data center REIT’s ongoing access to equity markets and lack of near-term debt maturities. Data centers are generally considered “essential” activities around the world given we live in the digital age and these assets have continued to operate during the pandemic. Shares of DLR yield ~3.4% on a forward-looking basis as of this writing.

Apr 3, 2020

Repub from July 2019 -- The Valuentum Economic Roundtable
We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market.

Mar 13, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 13
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.