Member Articles

Cash Is King: Microsoft Leading the Charge!

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It’s sometimes difficult for companies to overcome a tarnished reputation, particularly when it comes to a spotty dividend track record, but also as it relates to equity performance. The stock market is often unforgiving at times. Microsoft (MSFT) had long been viewed as “dead money,” or a term that describes an equity that languishes in a small trading range for years. For example, from 2010 to the beginning of 2013 (at the time it was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), Microsoft had bounced around in the mid-$20s per share. But as the chart below shows, overcoming a tarnished reputation is not impossible; in fact, Microsoft has put its “dead money” reputation behind it, powering past levels even witnessed … Read more

Looking to Trim Apple; Star Wars Mania Continues

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Let’s get this out of the way. We’re not worried about Apple (AAPL) at all. The company is sitting on a mountain of net cash and is simply a free cash flow machine. We think the iPhone-maker’s products continue to fly off the shelves, and this holiday season for Apple may be the best in its storied history. But sometimes the market is just not fair…and for a company trading at less than 10 times forward earnings, excluding net cash, is borderline an injustice. Still, we plan to take some more profits on the company in the newsletter portfolios if we catch a strong updraft in the markets. We continue to value shares north of $140 each, and as the … Read more

Focus on ETE, Not ETP; Strive for Balance and Stick to the SEC Filings

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We continue to be grateful for the favorable reception of our research and analysis. Our mission to help investors of all types remains our core focus and a cause buttressed by our independence and analytical integrity. You can read more here about Valuentum and its President of Equity Research Brian Nelson, CFA. It appears there continues to be a significant amount of confusion about the securities associated with the Energy Transfer companies, a collection of assets that includes the corporate parent Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) as well its consolidated subsidiaries: “Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), ETP GP, ETP LLC, Regency, Regency GP, Regency LLC, Panhandle, Sunoco, Inc., Sunoco Logistics (SXL), Sunoco LP (SUN), Susser and ETP Holdco (per Energy Transfer Equity, L.P, … Read more

Analysis: The Best Ideas Portfolio

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Please select the image below to download the report.  Note: The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Results, including those in the Nelson Exclusive publication, are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and actual results may differ from simulated information being presented.  The performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, Nelson Exclusive publication, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio have not been externally audited. The following download of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is an internal assessment. Newsletter performance figures, including those in the Nelson Exclusive publication, are prepared by Valuentum. Hypothetical results are … Read more

MLPs: Circular Flow of Unsubstantiated Support Evaporating

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Pictured: The circular flow of unsubstantiated support that continues to unravel, previously supporting the prices of the MLP universe. Image published June 18, 2015. © Valuentum Securities. The image above was taken from Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson’s article published on valuentum.com/ June 18.  Forward-looking, cash-flow based dividend analysis has proven its worth once again. Shipping giant Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) made a tidal wave in its stock recently, knocking income investors over, after it cut its distribution by 80% December 17 in order to fund capital requirements on its future growth projects, reduce debt, and eliminate its need to access equity capital markets in the near term. The Valuentum thesis on MLPs continues to suggest that distributions related to the business model continue to be fueled … Read more

Is the Worst Behind Us? Not Likely

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By Brian Nelson, CFA US natural gas prices (NGAS) recently dropped to the lowest level in nearly 14 years. Unseasonably warm weather may be to blame for the near-term drop, but we point to more structural concerns that may keep natural gas prices low for some time. Including both unconventional and conventional global natural gas resources, for example, there are more than 200+ years’ of supply based on the current trajectory of demand, and that doesn’t account for technology advances that will inevitably be made in the coming decades. Can you believe it? The situation with crude oil prices is not much better. West Texas crude oil prices (USO) dipped below $35 per barrel recently, still the high end of … Read more

FAQ: Help Me Understand Your Research on MLPs

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FAQ: It looks like your fair value estimates and your adjusted Dividend Cushion ratios aren’t bad. What gives? A: Thank you for your question. The Valuentum process rests on uncovering undervalued companies that are trading at a discount to intrinsic value, but also ones that are supported by the market via strong technical and momentum indicators. The latter consideration is absent from most, if not all of the energy sector, including MLPs. MLPs themselves, however, have a nuanced valuation adjustment in our process that leads us to have significantly less conviction than in other areas. Pasted below is a slide deck that mentions that adjustment (i.e. we exclude growth capex, even though we feel that it is an integral part of … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending December 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Abbot Labs (ABT): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Avago Technologies (AVGO): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Buckle (BKE): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Capella Education (CPLA): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Croghan Bancshares, Inc. (CHBH): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Re: Energy Transfer Partners

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I would like to say that I am sorry if members have not done well on ETP. First, we can never make recommendations on any stocks or strategy. We can only express our views on the company and explain what we do in the newsletter portfolios. The position in ETP was removed from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio several months ago on August 7, 2015: /20130729_1 We noted the following at the time: Energy Transfer Partners was removed from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at $47.10 per share, comfortably above its cost basis, even after excluding distributions received. The September 1 edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter noted that ETP had been removed, and the position has not been a part of the … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Ratio Catches More Dividend Cuts

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Retirees know that a dividend cut could be disastrous to their income portfolio, as future income is not only reduced but it is also very likely that capital is permanently impaired. The Dividend Cushion ratio, an integrated leverage and liquidity metric, is designed to provide the income investor with a trusted and independent opinion of the safety and future growth potential of a firm’s dividend. It not only has shown to predict dividend cuts, but the ‘cushion’ behind the Dividend Cushion reveals just how much capacity a firm has to continue growing its dividend into the future. Technically speaking, the Dividend Cushion ratio considers the firm’s net cash on its balance sheet (cash less debt) and adds that to its … Read more