Member Articles

Alert: Energy Transfer Equity Is More than 7x Leveraged!

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Edited December 16, 2015 at 1:07pm following conversation with ETE executive team. The Securities and Exchange Commission performs a vital function when it comes to truth in reporting, helping investors sort through what’s true and what’s not. The Form 10-K (annual) and Form 10-Q (quarter) can be used to compare what a company’s reported, actual net leverage is to what management says it is – in their presentation slide deck or on some of the more popular business channels. Investors in midstream equities have long been “pitched” the idea that leverage is contained, but from our perspective, it is not. Bondholders deserve to know the actual, reported net leverage of companies in the midstream space because they won’t hear it … Read more

Corporate Shopping This Holiday Season

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2015 may very well end up being remembered as the “year of the merger,” as the total dollar value of mergers and acquisitions in the year is on pace to set an all-time record. According to recent reports, Dow Chemical (DOW), DuPont (DD), and Yahoo! (YHOO), are doing what they can to be a part of that record. All three have faced tremendous pressure from activist investors as of late. On December 8, Dow Chemical and DuPont were reported to be in advanced talks on a massive merger. The rival chemical producers would likely split into three separate companies following the transaction; the three independently operating businesses would be material sciences, specialty products, and agrochemicals. Though labeled a “merger of … Read more

Not So Happy Holidays at Kinder Morgan

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In a sharp reversal from just a few days ago when Kinder Morgan (KMI) said it would generate sufficient “distributable cash flow” to fund dividend growth of 6%-10% in 2016, the executive team opted to cut its dividend December 8 by 75%, to $0.50 per share annually, a move that despite our best efforts has still managed to surprise the market, as evidenced by shares indicated down in after-hours trading. Though we plan to tweak our valuation model to account for the impact of recent acquisitive activity and the slide in energy resource pricing on Kinder Morgan’s intrinsic value, we’re reiterating the low end of our fair value estimate range at this time. We plan to update our 16-page valuation … Read more

Dividends Not Safe as Energy Markets Swoon

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We’ve been cautious on the oil and gas markets (XLE, AMLP) for some time, and that includes our October move closer to market neutral on the sector, but we’re still underweight the group. We’ve been saying that crude oil prices are more likely to hit the $20 per barrel level than move significantly higher, and we maintain our view that they may never again return to the $100 per barrel, a level many have grown accustomed to. After all, why should they? Unfortunately, the fallout continues to punish traditional “buy and hold” investors who have been trained to ignore most “news” and may still be holding on the belief of the fallacy of mean reversion, something that we believe cannot … Read more

Best Buy and GameStop Limp Into Holiday Season

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The seasonality of specialty retailers Best Buy (BBY) and GameStop (GME) is no secret, and both are depending on strong holiday shopping to buoy full-year results. Let’s take a look at recent performance to get a feel for how both are trending heading into the holidays. Electronic sales remain a bright spot, so we’re paying very close attention to what’s flying off the shelves and what’s not, but with all the promotional activity going on, the biggest question is whether margins will hold up. In the third quarter of fiscal 2016, ended October 31, Best Buy reported total revenue falling 2.4% from the year-ago period to ~$8.8 billion. Comparable sales grew 0.8% (down from the 2.9% pace in last year’s … Read more

Keurig Green Mountain Goes Private

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Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) will be taken private by a JAB Holding Co. led investor group for ~$13.9 billion in cash. The price of ~$92 per share represents a 78% premium to the company’s December 4 closing share price, which was the result of a year of disappointing earnings and questions about the firm’s long-term growth prospects. In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Keurig recorded double-digit declines in net sales, operating income, net income, and diluted income per share. Though the price premium certainly was a surprise (greater than the high end of the fair value estimate range), the buyout hardly comes as a surprise to us. We have been of the opinion that a takeout would the best case scenario … Read more

Master Limited Partnership Model Still At Risk

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson’s concerns regarding the master limited partnership business model became mainstream in June of this year. In his piece, “5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse,” an article that itself may go down in history as one of the most timely pieces of research ever written–in light of Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) eventual collapse–Mr. Nelson said of the MLP space at that time: Most, if not all, MLPs report distributable cash flow (DCF), which does not in the calculation consider growth capex, an important driver behind the generation of increased cash flow from operations in the future. When MLPs report distribution coverage ratios, this particular calculation also backs out growth capex from the equation, instead … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending December 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank of Montreal (BMO): now C$0.84 per share quarterly dividend, was C$0.82. C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.38. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): now C$1.15 per share quarterly dividend, was C$0.84. Canadian Western Bank (CBWBF): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Citizens Holding (CIZN): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. CoreSite Reality (COR): now $0.53 … Read more

Leading Investors to Water…

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“Entrepreneurs are never satisfied. They want to do things better. They strive for perfection and use all the ingenuity to their command to achieve it.” – J.W. Marriott Company Name Symbol YTD % Outperform? Apple AAPL 7.84 Y Alibaba BABA -18.37 N Altria MO 18.75 Y Cisco CSCO -1.2 N eBay EBAY 24.26 Y Financial Select SPDR XLF 1.52 N General Electric GE 20.66 Y Gilead Sciences GILD 10.41 Y Google (now Alphabet) GOOG 46.07 Y Google (now Alphabet) GOOGL 46.84 Y Health Care ETF XLV 6.02 Y Intel INTC -3.73 N SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE 9.25 Y Republic Services RSG 10.09 Y Rio Tinto RIO -31.07 N Teva Pharma TEVA 16.12 Y Union Pacific UNP -32.46 N Utilities … Read more