Member Articles

Amazon Contests Microsoft Winning JEDI Contract

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By Callum Turcan Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is a longtime holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and on top of posting great dividend growth historically–from the start of 2010 to the start of 2020, Microsoft’s quarterly dividend rose from $0.13 per share to $0.51 per share, and we see that trajectory continuing going forward–shares of MSFT have been on an upward tear and are up ~73% over the past year as of this writing. Microsoft now trades well above the top end of our fair value estimate range. However, we let our winners run until the technicals start turning against them in a meaningful way. As of this writing, shares of MSFT yield ~1.1% on a forward-looking basis. Recent Events … Read more

What is Risk?

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Image Source: Mike Cohen By Matt Warren Let’s start by talking about what isn’t risk. Risk isn’t easily measured and yet that is what the asset management industry and academia tend to serve up to the average and professional investor alike. You will see the standard deviation of a stock or portfolio, showing how much the value wiggles. You will see beta, which shows how much the value wiggles as compared to the benchmark’s own wiggles. You will see things like the Sharpe and Sortino ratios, which tackle further quantifiable ways to describe risk–and the list of equations goes on and on. Do you know what is a much more difficult question for an asset manager to answer? How much … Read more

Cisco Continues to Showcase Its Free Cash Flow Strength

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Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 12, Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended January 25, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line. However, shares of CSCO still fell initially on the news, possibly due to the company’s forward guidance for the third quarter falling short of expectations. Cisco is currently undergoing a major transition from a company that primarily sells hardware to one that also offers material subscription-based services and software, in order to offset the structural declines facing the enterprise data application management space (which can be summed up as many/most enterprises around the world switching their … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Engineering & Construction Industry

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Image Source: CBI Structure of the Engineering & Construction Industry Firms in the E&C industry design and construct facilities for customers across a variety of end markets. Participants generally have slim margins and use percentage-of-completion accounting, which can cause wild swings in profitability, especially on fixed-priced contracts when cost overruns occur. Firms that operate primarily under cost-reimbursable contracts tend to have lower risk profiles. Still, order trends can be volatile, and cash flow depends on projects in cyclical industries. Competition remains fierce, and industry consolidation won’t change existing rivalries much. We generally don’t like the group. We’ve optimized our coverage of industrial firms. They can be found here.

PayPal Closes Out a Stellar 2019 and the Future Looks Bright

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Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc has been a big winner in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we expect that to continue being the case going forward. By Callum Turcan PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is one of our favorite companies out there in the payment processing/financial tech space, up there with top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa Inc (V), and back on January 13 (link here) we increased our weighting in shares of PYPL in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We like PayPal’s rock-solid balance sheet, quality cash flow profile, and most importantly, its growth outlook. Guidance Commentary On January 29, PayPal reported fourth-quarter and full year earnings for 2019, and the company continued to outperform. The firm … Read more

‘Value Trap’ Shoots and Scores!

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Author Brian Nelson is the President of Investment Research at Valuentum. In his role, he has updated and overseen over 20,000 discounted cash flow models during the past 10 years. Prior to Valuentum, he worked as the Director of Methodology at Morningstar, a large independent research firm in Chicago, developing the company’s discounted cash-flow model used to derive the fair value estimates for the company’s coverage universe. Key Takeaways Based on how we interpret the latest from Fama/French, a new study released a couple weeks ago, the long-advertised quant value factor, the book-to-market (B/M) ratio, may not have even existed. By extension, in our view, it reinforces our thesis that many quant value factors that are based on traditional valuation … Read more

Disney Reports Earnings and Provides an Update on the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic

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Image Shown: Walt Disney Company recently reported earnings and provided an update as to what investors should expect going forward given the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic in China. By Callum Turcan On February 4, Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 28, 2019). While Disney beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, shares sold off modestly the next trading day over fears concerning the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic (abbreviated as ‘2019-nCoV’) in China, and how that would impact its financial performance going forward.   On January 13, 2020, we added shares of DIS to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (link covering our portfolio changes here) with a modest weighting given … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Alcoholic Beverage Industry

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Image Source: Jhong Dizon Structure of the Beverages (alcoholic) Industry The beer industry is structured as an oligopoly, with three players generating over half of industry profits. Though smaller industry constituents may price competitively at times, we view the overall industry structure as a rational oligopoly. Further consolidation in the space cannot be ruled out, and we would not be surprised to see larger players continuing to participate. Global operators will benefit from exposure to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where beer consumption is growing at a pace several times that of mature markets such as North America and Western Europe. We like the structure of the group. We’ve reallocated our resources to cover more recession-resistant stocks. See here.

GasLog MLP Family Highlights Problems with Flawed Model

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Image Source: GasLog Ltd – 2018 Analyst Day Presentation By Callum Turcan We’ve written about it many times in the past and we’re writing about it again: the master limited partnership (‘MLP’) model is fundamentally broken. Equity holders in this arrangement have little to no say over how the family of companies are run, and management is often beholden to no one. Only by converting to a C-Corp can this arrangement be rectified. Massive Payout Cut As you can see in the graphic below, the ownership structure of GasLog Ltd (GLOG), the general partner (‘GP’), and GasLog Partners LP (GLOP), the limited partner (‘LP’), is quite convoluted. This MLP family leases own vessels that transport liquified natural gas (‘LNG’) and … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Sporting Goods Retailing Industry

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Structure of the Retail – Sporting Goods Industry The seasonal retail sporting goods industry is heavily tied to sporting trends and relies on large athletic partners to create desirable athletic goods and apparel. Exclusive licenses can help certain firms achieve competitive advantages, and while scale helps, small companies have been able to carve out favorable niches. Online competition continues to grow from non-traditional retailers, causing potential pressures on margin and pricing performance. Potential firearm regulation could negatively impact sales, but most companies are well diversified. We’re neutral on the space, but continued consolidation could ultimately benefit industrywide pricing and margins. We’ve optimized our coverage of stocks tied to discretionary spending; the reports can be found here.