Brian Nelson

Energy Transfer Raises 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 17, Energy Transfer (ET) reported mixed fourth quarter results with revenue beating expectations, but GAAP earnings missing the consensus forecast. Net income for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $928 million, down from $1.08 billion for the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $4.18 billion, however, up 8% from the year-ago period. Distributable cash flow for the quarter was $2.04 billion compared to $1.98 billion for the same period last year. Growth capital spending in the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion, while maintenance capital spending was $355 million. Energy Transfer’s volumes continued to expand in the fourth quarter. NGL and refined product terminals volumes were … Read more

Republic Services Continues to Price in Excess of Cost Inflation

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 17, Republic Services (RSG) reported fourth quarter results that were mixed with non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expected but revenue coming in a bit light relative to forecasts. Total revenue growth in the quarter was 2.2% thanks to 2.9% organic growth from its recycling and waste business, 1.3% growth from acquisitions, and a 2% organic decline from its environmental solutions business. Core price on total revenue increased by 5.8%. Volume decreased total revenue by 1%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion or 31.3% of revenue, an increase of 30 basis points from the same period a year ago. Quarterly net income was $545 million on a margin of 13.2%, … Read more

Walmart Continues to Execute Well

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Image Source: Walmart By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 19, Walmart (WMT) reported better than expected fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share beating the consensus forecast. Revenue increased 5.6% in the quarter and 4.9% in constant currency. Walmart U.S. comp sales increased 4.6% in the quarter. Global eCommerce sales grew 24% thanks to strength in store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace. Its global advertising business advanced 37%, including VIZIO, while Walmart Connect in the U.S. was up 41%. Membership fee revenue grew 15.1% globally. Walmart’s gross margin rate was up 13 basis points thanks to strength in Walmart U.S., while operating income was up $0.8 billion, or 10.8%, growing faster than sales. Adjusted … Read more

Amazon 2026 Capex Guidance Casts Shadow Over Stock

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Amazon (AMZN) recently reported mixed fourth quarter results with revenue coming in better than expected, but GAAP earnings per share missing the mark. Net sales for the quarter increased 14%, to $213.4 billion, with AWS segment sales increasing 24% year-over-year, to $35.6 billion. Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter came in at $27.4 billion compared with $21.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. North America segment operating income was $11.5 billion, compared to $9.3 billion in the year-ago period, while AWS segment operating income was $12.5 billion, compared to $10.6 billion in last year’s quarter. Net income increased to $21.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $1.95 per diluted share, compared … Read more

Lockheed Martin Boasts Record Backlog

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Lockheed Martin (LMT) recently reported better than expected fourth quarter results with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the respective consensus forecasts. The company reported fourth quarter 2025 sales of $20.3 billion, compared to $18.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Net earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 were $1.3 billion, or $5.80 per share, compared to $2.22 per share in last year’s quarter. Operating cash flow was $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $1 billion in the year-ago quarter. Free cash flow was $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $441 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Management had the … Read more

Philip Morris’ Growth Targets Are Solid

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Philip Morris (PM) recently reported fourth quarter results that were mixed with revenue missing the consensus forecast, but non-GAAP earnings per share coming in-line with estimates. In the fourth quarter, net revenues increased 6.8% led by a 12% increase in its smoke-free business. Organic growth was 3.7%. Gross profit advanced 5.1% on an organic basis, while operating income increased 4.5% on an organic basis. In the quarter, adjusted diluted earnings per share, excluding currency, came in at $1.69, up 9% year-over-year. For the full year 2025, its smoke-free business accounted for 41.5% of its total net revenues and nearly 43% of total gross profit.   Management had the following to say about the … Read more

Tesla’s Shares Remain Pricey

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Image Source: Tesla By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) recently reported better than expected fourth quarter results, but revenue of $24.9 billion fell 3% in the quarter driven by lower automotive revenues, which declined 11% year-over-year. The consensus revenue estimate was $24.8 billion. Total gross profit fared better, however, advancing 20%, but income from operations dropped 11%, to $1.41 billion in the quarter. Its operating margin contracted 50 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA fell 4%, as its adjusted EBITDA margin fell 17 basis points. Non-GAAP net income dropped 16% in the quarter, while non-GAAP earnings per share fell 17%, to $0.50, a nickel better than expected. Management had the following to say about the results: 2025 marked a critical year … Read more

NextEra Energy Targets Long Term Earnings Growth

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Image Source: NextEra Energy By Brian Nelson, CFA NextEra Energy (NEE) recently reported fourth quarter results that were mixed. Revenue missed the consensus forecast, while non-GAAP earnings per share slightly beat. Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted net income attributable to NextEra Energy was $1.133 billion, or $0.54 per share, compared to $1.095 billion, or $0.53 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2024. On an adjusted basis, full-year 2025 earnings were $7.683 billion, or $3.71 per share, compared to $7.063 billion, or $3.43 per share, in 2024, representing year-over-year growth of roughly 8.2%. Management had the following to say about the results: NextEra Energy delivered strong operational and financial performance in 2025, increasing full-year adjusted earnings per share by more than … Read more

Cisco Faces Headwinds Due to Gross Margin Pressures

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Image Source: Cisco By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 11, Cisco (CSCO) reported better than expected results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Quarterly revenue of $15.3 billion increased 10% year-over-year, beating the consensus forecast of $15.11 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter came in at $1.04, up 11% year-over-year, and better than the consensus estimate of $1.02. The double-digit top and bottom-line growth exceeded Cisco’s guidance, and it was encouraging to see earnings advance faster than revenue in the quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 67.5%, down from 68.7% in last year’s quarter, while its non-GAAP operating margin was 34.6% in the quarter. Management had the following to say about the results: Cisco’s strong … Read more

Visa’s Free Cash Flow Margin Is Fantastic

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Visa (V) recently reported first quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expected. Net revenue increased 15%, or 13% on a constant-dollar basis, to $10.9 billion. GAAP net income came in at $5.9 billion, or $3.03 per share, up 17%, while non-GAAP net income came in at $6.1 billion or $3.17 per share, up 15%. Management had the following to say about the results: Visa delivered a very strong fiscal first quarter with net revenue up 15% year-over-year, GAAP EPS up 17% and non-GAAP EPS up 15%, driven by resilient consumer spending and a strong holiday season, as well as continued strength in value-added services … Read more