Brian Nelson

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Portfolio Gems Shine Bright

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We couldn’t be happier with the fundamental performance of two of the larger holdings in the Dividend Growth portfolio. Procter & Gamble (PG) and Microsoft (MSFT) both reported solid fiscal second-quarter earnings (calendar fourth-quarter earnings) this week. Procter & Gamble boasts some of the most-recognized branded consumer packaged goods and holds a significant share position in the markets in which it operates. The company boasts 120+ consecutive years of dividend payments and 55+ consecutive years of dividend increases. Procter & Gamble’s dividend payout is rock-solid, and we were reminded as much when it released fiscal second quarter results Friday. On an adjusted basis, organic growth advanced 3%, leading to a solid currency-neutral, core earnings-per-share advance of 8% during the period, … Read more

Starbucks’ Investors Are Forgetting That Coffee Costs Can Go Back Up; Shares Lack Valuation Support

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Starbucks (SBUX) has one of the strongest and most-recognized brands in the world. We think its brand name is largely responsible for it being able to charge lofty prices on its coffees and drinks, despite significant competition in each of its markets. Starbucks’ fiscal first-quarter results (ending December 29, 2013) reminded us of this solid position, which appears to be nearing impregnability given the strong pace of traffic trends and profit improvements. The coffee giant announced Thursday that it experienced 12% revenue growth during its fiscal first quarter thanks to strong holiday sales and solid store traffic, which drove quarterly revenue to a record $4.2 billion. Even though prices for its beverages are set at premium levels, the firm is … Read more

SEC Proposes Barring the Chinese Units of the Big 4 Accounting Firms for 6 Months; A Washington-Beijing Scuffle; Neither Firm-Specific, Nor Is It “New” News

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On Thursday, Reuters reported that SEC Administrative Law Judge Cameron Elliot believes “Chinese units of the global ‘Big Four’ accounting firms (KPMG, Deloitte & Touche, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Ernst and Young) should be suspended from auditing U.S.-listed companies for six months in an escalation in a long-running dispute over regulators’ access to documents.” Though the accounting firms have indicated that they intend to appeal against the ruling, the article did unnerve investors in many US-listed Chinese stocks, including Baidu (BIDU), which notes Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP as its principal external auditor. This is not “new” news. Baidu goes to great lengths to highlight this scenario as a risk in its 20-F on page 32, with potential de-listing (not bankruptcy or … Read more

Icahn’s In-depth Letter to Apple Still Does Not Remove Time Horizon

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We believe Apple’s (AAPL) shares have valuation upside (see 16 page report), but as we have outlined before here, activist investor Carl Icahn’s proposal to force Apple to buy back stock over a certain time period (“during fiscal 2014”) as opposed to under a certain price (our fair value estimate) is imprudent. We encourage Icahn to further revise his proposal. Additionally, we think Icahn’s valuation process is too simplistic (see footnote 1), and we encourage him to disclose a more rigorous valuation assessment of the firm that takes long-term forecasts into consideration. Said differently, we’d like him to justify why Apple should trade for 16 times earnings on the basis of Apple’s own financials, not merely use the consensus market multiple for justification. … Read more

McDonald’s Operating Income Flat in Fourth Quarter

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When a firm’s Valuentum Dividend Cushion score starts to fade as McDonald’s (MCD) score did recently, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the trajectory of its dividend growth will start to fade, too. McDonald’s recently increased its dividend 5%, but payout expansion will become increasingly more difficult if the fast-food giant continues to post results like its fourth-quarter performance, released Thursday. During the period, McDonald’s revealed a global comparable sales decline of 0.1% as a result of a negative comparable guest count and flat consolidated operating income (up 1% excluding currencies). This performance, of course, is not conducive to large future dividend increases. In the US, McDonald’s comparable sales decreased 1.4% in the fourth quarter, as operating income advanced … Read more

Our Investment Thesis on Union Pacific Remains on Track; Pricing Growth Strong

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Must Read: Joint Outlook for the Railroad and Coal Industries Union Pacific (UNP) showed why the company is included in the Best Ideas portfolio when it reported fourth quarter results Thursday. The company’s headline was nice: “Best-Ever Quarterly Results.” That’s saying quite a bit as coal shipments continue to provide stiff headwinds across much of the industry. Norfolk Southern (NSC), for example, recently reported an 8% decline in coal volumes during its fourth quarter, its results released Wednesday. Though revenue carloads of coal declined 10% during Union Pacific’s fourth quarter, strong pricing almost completely offset the weakness in this segment. Average revenue per car across all of Union Pacific jumped 6% in the quarter, far better than inflation. We continue to … Read more

United Technologies, Precision Castparts Confirm Aerospace Strength

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On Wednesday, industrial conglomerate United Technologies (UTX) reported solid fourth-quarter results. During 2013, earnings per share and net income attributable to common shareholders advanced 16% and 17%, respectively, over the prior year period. Though most of it was acquired expansion, sales jumped 9%, while the company’s adjusted segment operating margin increased 90 basis points, to 15.7%. Cash flow from operations came in at $7.5 billion for the year and capital expenditures were $1.7 billion, resulting in free cash flow of $5.8 billion (or 9.3% of sales). We were particularly pleased with CEO Chenevert’s comments about witnessing an acceleration of organic growth throughout the year. Fourth-quarter organic sales growth was 4% (better than the 1% pace recorded for the entire year), … Read more

Investors Will Continue to Be Rewarded in eBay; If Nothing Else, Icahn’s Entrance Will Drive an Upward Re-Valuation of the Equity

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Auctions and payments provider eBay (EBAY) has been a great success story for many Valuentum members, having registered a 70%+ gain since the company was added to the Best Ideas portfolio. We’ve often used eBay as an example of the Valuentum process in action (see here) and below: “(eBay) initially flashed a (Valuentum Buying Index) rating of 10 in late September 2011 (at $32 per share), and we added it to (the) Best Ideas portfolio. The VBI rating changed to a 6 in December 2011 and then back to a 10 in May 2012. Because the rating never breached a 1 or 2, we did not remove the position from our portfolio. In fact, we tactically added to it. eBay … Read more

Icahn’s In-depth Letter to Apple Must Remove the Time Horizon Associated with the Buyback Proposal in Order to Receive Valuentum’s Approval

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Carl Icahn announced Wednesday on Twitter (TWTR), his favorite news distribution mechanism, that he has “purchased $500 million more Apple (AAPL) shares in the last two weeks” and that his investment in the iPad-maker is now worth more than $3 billion. Though the total value of his holdings is still less than 1% of Apple’s $496 billion market capitalization (as of the end of trading Wednesday), the news is making quite the splash.   Having purchased $500 million more $AAPL shares in the last two weeks, our investment has crossed the $3 billion mark yesterday.— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) January 22, 2014 In early December, Carl Icahn released Proposal No. 10, which is a non-binding advisory resolution that the firm complete … Read more

Verizon Posts Highest Adjusted EBITDA Margin in 8 years; Pro forma Debt Load Reduces Attractiveness of Idea

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On Tuesday, Verizon’s (VZ) fourth-quarter performance showed us why we had been considering the firm for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Newsletter. The company experienced revenue growth across all strategic areas (84% of business), showcasing 3.4% year-over-year expansion. The most recent quarter marked the fifth consecutive period of at least 8% service revenue year-over-year growth. The communication giant’s strong cost management controls sent its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin to the highest levels in 8 years (34.9%), a very impressive showing. Wireless segment EBITDA jumped more than 22% from last year’s quarter. Verizon’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66 was also impressive, coming in nearly 74% higher than the level posted in the same period a year ago. For all of 2013, the … Read more