Brian Nelson

What Members Are Talking About: Ford, Gilead, and Boeing

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Question #1 October 1, 2014 Brian: I have a quick question for you.  I read last night that Valuentum eliminated Ford (F) from their portfolio.  A few months ago you commented on the strength of Ford’s sales in emerging markets.  You have a range of 15-27 on Ford price using the DCF process.  With F trading currently under the low end of the range, would it still be prudent to sell the position?  I know clients have made gains since your recommendation in your portfolio, but wouldn’t it be more prudent to sell a position that is closer to fair value than one that is trading below its fair value range? If there is an updated report on F, I … Read more

Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha

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Image Source: TipRanks, as of November 2016 By Valuentum Editorial Staff Seeking Alpha recently published the returns of certain ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ calls for each author. We applaud the firm’s ongoing dedication to transparency of its authors, if not by name, by track record. Valuentum Securities is an independent research firm headed by President Brian Nelson, CFA. Out of the 2,000+ articles Valuentum has published on Seeking Alpha, the Seeking Alpha study covered 567 of them, spanning from May 16, 2011, through June 25, 2014. Long ideas: 508; short ideas: 59. The articles in the study spanned all sectors and market capitalizations. The study pulled articles that were either tagged by Valuentum as ‘long’ ideas or ‘short’ ideas within the … Read more

The Correction: The IMF, Oil, Department Stores, and the Fed

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  We’ve been heeding our own words of caution for the past several weeks now, as we’ve trimmed some of the cyclical exposure in both the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio. We also added protection to both portfolios several percentage points ago in the form of put option contracts on the S&P 500. These instruments aren’t for everybody, and the put options can still expire worthless if we don’t take profits. The above chart of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) shows the ongoing market correction, and we expect to continue to provide daily market commentary in the event that things get considerably worse. Our high-level prognostication is that the broader equity markets will be lower than they are … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending October 3

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending October 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Financial (AFG): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. AZZ (AZZ): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): now $0.125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. Calavo Growers (CVGW): now $0.75 per share annual dividend, was $0.70. John Hancock Investments (PDT): now $0.09 per share monthly dividend, was $0.08. Kayne Anderson Energy Development (KED): now $0.52 per share … Read more

The Correction: Protection Makes Sense

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When our team thinks about members, the one thing we want for them is to make money from our service. This sometimes means that we’re a bit cautious at times. For example, taking profits on Ford (F), Precision Castparts (PCP), and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) a couple days ago was not an easy thing to do. They’ve been huge winners. From a fundamental standpoint, we still like the companies, but market conditions and valuations cannot be ignored. Just like the profit-taking, we also think it was prudent to add protection in the form of put option contracts to the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio in light of a number of factors. The put option contracts amount to ~1.5% … Read more

The Correction: Markets Ease Thursday

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The S&P 500 brushed off a sluggish open Thursday, recovering through most of the afternoon following the close of European markets. We’re not particularly fond of commenting on daily market activity, but we want to make sure readers know that we’re monitoring the correction very closely to see if things could get much worse. There are a variety of factors that could make the markets even uglier: sliding energy prices (impact on Big Oil’s profits), Ebola outbreak (impact on airlines, hotels), Hong Kong (disruptions in Asia), European weakness (risks of weaker economic activity), ISIS and Russia (geopolitical uncertainty), and the list goes on and on and on (our seven are here). One very important voice from the crowd, however, is speaking … Read more