Brian Nelson

Three Huge Red Flags for the Airlines, Hotels

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The airline industry is a good barometer of global economic activity as it not only gauges leisure travel but also business activity. We picked up three important red flags recently that may weigh on shares of the airline group (and by extension the hotel space). For those that don’t know us, we’re not at all fans of the investment prospects of the airline industry, but nonetheless, we pay very close attention to airlines for unique economic insights. Read about our recent call on cyclicals here, in case you missed it. 1. Ebola. According to CNN, the first case of Ebola has been diagnosed in the US. Just like the SARS and West Nile virus before it, the news will likely … Read more

October Dividend Growth Newsletter Introduction

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Dear Member, The month of September represented some tough sledding for the markets, and we think things will get worse before they get better. If you missed our write up on the seven reasons why we think we’re due for a fall, please be sure to catch up on the piece here. We made a number of changes to the Dividend Growth portfolio since the release of the previous edition of the newsletter. Let’s make sure you didn’t miss anything. For one, yesterday, we added S&P 500 SPDR put option contracts to the portfolio to protect the large gains. Specifically, we added protection in the form of 5 put option contracts on the S&P 500 (SPY), with November 22 expiration … Read more

Pay Attention!

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I just wanted to send a quick reminder out there because frankly this is amazing, and I’m very, very concerned readers aren’t focusing on the right things. First, I wanted to start with a couple examples. Example 1: If you pull up a 16-page report and, let’s say, it is dated from late April, and the company had registered a 9 on the index and shares were trading $24 at the time. If the stock is now in the mid-$30s, your response should be: “Wow, the stock registered a 9 and now has advanced significantly. The methodology really highlighted this one.” Your response should not be that the report is dated from April. Micron Tech (MU). Excerpt Micron Report, page … Read more

This Just Feels Different…Mr. Brown

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We think the correction is coming. Here are 7 reasons why we plan to reduce exposure to cyclicals and add some protection to the portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA I hope you don’t mind my using baseball analogies. Baseball and investing are perhaps the only two endeavors where if you get more than half right, you’re at the top of the list. In any case, you don’t have to be a big baseball fan to appreciate the similarities. I used an example with Ted Williams in this piece about fat pitch investing, but there’s another analogy that is worth sharing. I’ve been to the Louisville Slugger Museum and Factory Tour a few times in the past couple years. My little … Read more

Yikes! Brazil’s Real Plunges; Protests in Hong Kong

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Recession worries in Brazil (EWZ) sent the Brazilian real to a five-year low after poll results showed President Dima Rousseff gaining a lead over candidate Marina Silva, according to Bloomberg. Dropping a couple percent versus the US dollar today, its biggest one-day drop in three years, the Brazilian real has fallen more than 10% during the third quarter. Many had hoped a new government would spur economic growth in the country. The Brazilian economy is an important one, a component of the faster-growing BRIC nations, and many firms in our coverage universe are dependent on its resilience. This could potentially compound problems in Latin America, with Argentina defaulting on its debt earlier this year. Fundamentals at PetroBras (PBR), Gol Linhas … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week CSB Bancorp (CSBB): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. International Bancshares (IBOC): now $0.27 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.25. Lockheed Martin (LMT): now $1.50 per share quarter dividend, was $1.33. OGE Energy (OGE): now $0.25 per share quarterly … Read more

Wow…Nike. Wow. Innovation Brews Growth.

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Home to some of the strongest brands on the planet, Nike (NKE) is simply a fantastic company. Brand value is quantifiable through the company’s ability to monetize it in the form of future free cash flows, but while the company’s future free cash flows don’t justify scooping up shares at present levels of ~$90 per share, fundamentals at the company have never been stronger. Nike’s fiscal 2015 first quarter results, released September 25, were nothing short of impressive. Revenue jumped 15%, while diluted earnings per share leapt 27% during the period. A shift in mix to higher-margin products, higher average selling prices and continued growth in its higher-margin direct-to-consumer business drove the firm’s gross margin higher. A lower tax rate … Read more

Starboard and Yahoo

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The Marissa Mayer hype has been exciting and refreshing. But with Mayer and the executive suite having done little to turn around the core operations of Yahoo (YHOO), and more recently snubbing talks about tying the knot with AOL (AOL), the time may be ripe for a shakeup. Activist investor and investment management firm Starboard Value thinks so. In an open letter to Mayer and the board of directors of Yahoo, Starboard Value announced that it has acquired a significant ownership stake in the beleaguered, and once-relevant, Internet portal.  Starboard outlined a case for Yahoo to monetize the company’s non-core minority equity investments (Alibaba, Yahoo Japan) in a tax-efficient manner and tie-up with AOL, which itself has been on the … Read more

Ugly Week Thus Far on Wall Street

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By Brian Nelson, CFA What does straight up look like, you may ask? Try the S&P 500 (SPY) since the fourth quarter of 2011. Today marked the largest sell-off in stocks since July 31 of this year. The Dow fell 1.5% to 16,952, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 1966.27, and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.9% to 4,456.75. The S&P 500 tripped below its widely-followed 50-day moving average, and the large cap index is now back to levels reached months ago. All 30 Dow components fell during today’s trading session, with only a handful keeping the losses to less than a percent. Did you remember to build an arc like Bill DeShurko? What more does the market have to prove? The … Read more