Brian Nelson

Addressing the Intricacies of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

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The Dividend Cushion ratio continues to build an impressive track record of warning investors of impending dividend cuts, but it’s not perfect. Let’s examine a few recent cases. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The Dividend Cushion ratio has proven to be an extremely useful tool for income investors to help safeguard their portfolios from dividend cuts, but it does have its limitations. Sometimes, external forces that cannot be captured in the calculation of the Dividend Cushion can impact the sustainability of the dividend payment. Some of these external factors can be as complex as a transformational acquisition, to as straightforward as an unexpected guidance reduction, to as simple as a capital allocation policy change. The board sets the … Read more

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals: A Rare Drug Powerhouse

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Image shown: BioMarin’s stock price has had a choppy ride these past couple years.  BioMarin continues its impressive string of hits in the rare drug market. We continue to be impressed with the depth of the scientific advances brought forth by the company. An in-depth discussion of BioMarin’s pipeline is warranted, in our view, particularly in light of the potential for an expected, upcoming FDA approval. By Alexander J. Poulos Company Overview BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN) is far from a household name even though the company has an impressive string of approved treatments in the field of rare and ultra-rare disease. Unlike traditional pharma or larger more well-known biotech firms whose primary focus is bringing forth treatments for the broad population … Read more

Video: Backwards, Forwards, Frameworks, Boeing/GE, and Methodology

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the tragedy of the investment business in using backward-looking information, the absurdity of making prognostications about stock market returns, market sentiment through the price of Boeing, applying future forecasts and predicting dividend cuts with GE, and why Valuentum’s methodology makes sense for long-term investors. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.   

Altria Back Above $70, Dollar General Pleases, Verint Sells Off

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Image shown: Dollar General’s stock has performed very well since being added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We were very happy to see newsletter portfolio idea Altria surge back above $70 per share in recent days. Dollar General continues its strength as the economy churns out more of its demographic, and we continue to believe the dollar store arena may be one of the few spaces of retail that is truly insulated from the Amazon effect. Verint Systems, on the other hand, has faced selling pressure, which we think is flat-out unwarranted. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA In case you missed the latest video from President of Investment Research Brian Nelson here, we’ve been following very closely developments … Read more

Video: North Korea, Indexing, and ETFs

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the non-zero probability of nuclear war, lofty equity market valuations, the impact of ultra-low interest rates, the Bitcoin phenomenon, the importance of paying attention to financial adviser fees, as well as the pitfalls when it comes to assigning styles to ETFs. Running time: ~11 minutes. Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Banks – Regional and Asset Management: AB, AINV, AMP, ARCC, BCH, BEN, BGCP, BKU, BLK, BMO, BNS, CM, FSIC, ISBC, KKR, LAZ, LM, MAIN, MTB, NABZY, NYB, OCN, PBCT, PFG, PSEC, RY, SBNY, SBSI, STT, TCAP, TD, VLY, WBK  Banks & Money Centers: AXP, BAC, BBT, BK, C, DFS, FITB, GS, HBC, JPM, KEY, MS, NTRS, PNC, … Read more

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller On Indexing

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Robert Shiller on what worries him about passive investing from CNBC. “The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work. So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is trying — well, not as many people — are trying to beat it? … The strength of this country was built on people who watched individual companies. They had opinions about them. All this talk of indexes, it’s a little bit diluting of our intellect. It becomes more of a game. It’s a chaotic system. It’s kind of … Read more

Shopping for Income Within Retail in a Digital World

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Image Source: Mike Mozart The 2017 holiday shopping season has shown that e-commerce has never been stronger and it will only continue to grow. But there is still potential for income generation among more traditional retailers. Investors must be tremendously discerning in this area, however, as margin, and ultimately free cash flow, pressures remain prevalent. We like Walmart, Target, Costco as income ideas in retail, but TJX Companies and Best Buy may be worth a look. We’re avoiding the department stores and teen retail like the plague, regardless of their Dividend Cushion ratios. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA What an incredible time we’re living in. For those that study history, the US’ pressure on other countries like China … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 1

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aircastle (AYR): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Atlantica Yield (ABY): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. C&F Financial (CFFI): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Cass Information Systems (CASS): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Capital Southwest (CSWC): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Cedar Fair (FUN): now $0.89 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.855. … Read more

Charting Cash Flow and Net Debt — The Oil Majors

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Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven’t covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017. Oil & Gas – Major: BP, COP, CVX, PTR, RDS, TOT, XOM

Documentary: The Bitcoin Phenomenom

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Produced for SQ1.tv, this Bitcoin documentary looks at the history, the ideologies, and the conflict between the politics of the early-adopters and the VCs/entrepreneurs pushing to take Bitcoin mainstream. Source: SQ1.tv. Financial Tech Services: ACIW, EPAY, FDC, FIS, FISV, FLT, GPN, MA, MELI, PAY, PYPL, V, VNTV, VRSK, WEX, WU Banks – Regional and Asset Management: AB, AINV, AMP, ARCC, BCH, BEN, BGCP, BKU, BLK, BMO, BNS, CM, FSIC, ISBC, KKR, LAZ, LM, MAIN, MTB, NABZY, NYB, OCN, PBCT, PFG, PSEC, RY, SBNY, SBSI, STT, TCAP, TD, VLY, WBK  Banks & Money Centers: AXP, BAC, BBT, BK, C, DFS, FITB, GS, HBC, JPM, KEY, MS, NTRS, PNC, RF, STI, TCB, USB, WFC