XLF

The Valuentum Team Talks Powell Speech and Threat of Global Recession

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Last week, China issued retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Trump responded in kind, escalating trade tensions. Caught in the middle of this US-China trade war is the Fed, however. Let’s sit down with the Valuentum team and kick things off with our thoughts on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech, Challenges for Monetary Policy issued August 23 in Jackson Hole, WY. Our latest Economic Roundtable can be accessed here. Matthew Warren: Powell is certainly leaving the door open for cuts if needed. To me, it’s largely pushing on a string. I don’t think cost of capital is the problem. Capital is already cheap. Mortgages aren’t even following the 10-year (TLT, TBT) down fully. Banks (XLF) won’t take credit card rates down … Read more

What’s on the Valuentum Team’s Mind?

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Let’s get the Valuentum team’s thoughts on recent developments. No changes to newsletter portfolios. Last Friday, August 16, Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said in a Bloomberg interview, “We have nothing to fear about a recession right now except for fear of recession.” We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts. Let’s go around the horn. Callum Turcan: Interesting take, and I get why he thinks that way. The feedback loop of recession fears prompting businesses to invest less which in turn hurts consumer spending by weakening wage growth/employment growth rates thus leading to additional reductions in business investment. However, I think we are past the point of fear being the main enemy. Poor industrial … Read more

Alert: Markets Weakening, Raising Cash

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Image Shown: In our December 26, 2018, note to members, we moved the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested” from a cash “allocation” of 30% and 20%, respectively at the high end of the range. We are raising cash today. — This article was emailed to members here. — Alert: Markets Weakening, Raising Cash — Notification: Removing the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. —Hi everyone, — It looks like it’s shaping up for another ugly and volatile day in the markets. — There are myriad risks as we near the end of this now-decade long bull market: … Read more

Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge

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The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China. No changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time. During the past few days, the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) have escalated a trade war, turning it into a currency war, the latter allowing its yuan to drop to lower levels against the U.S. dollar. The US has now labeled China a “currency manipulator,” and China has responded by suspending U.S. agricultural purchases. China is one of the largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods. The Valuentum team builds on its previous conversation … Read more

Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate of Morgan Stanley

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We are lowering our fair value estimate of Morgan Stanley to $45 from $50 to update our view of what mid-cycle results might look like. By Matthew Warren Morgan Stanley (MS) posted second-quarter 2019 results July 18 with net revenue down 3% from last year to $10.2 billion and diluted earnings per share down 5% to $1.23, better than the Wall Street consensus of $1.16 per share. The Institutional Securities segment, with net income applicable to Morgan Stanley down 23% versus last year, was the major drag on overall results, while the much smaller Investment Management unit provided some ballast with net income applicable to Morgan Stanley up 23%. Weakness in Institutional Securities was very broad-based compared to last year … Read more

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Marches On

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We like what we saw out of a few industrial names, including Honeywell, Danaher and Dover. We thought Taiwan Semi’s report was okay, and Philip Morris continues to navigate declining cigarette volumes. We include our thoughts on some of the mid-size banks. By Brian Nelson, CFA For those just catching up, please have a read of our introductory second-quarter earnings season piece here. We saw some nice reports from J&J (JNJ) and Abbott (ABT), and while we had some concerns about the core industrial economy in light of Fastenal’s (FAST) and CSX’s (CSX) reports, news from Honeywell (HON), Danaher (DHR), and Dover (DOV) suggest that industrial activity is more likely mixed than outright deteriorating. Honeywell’s second-quarter results, released July 18, … Read more

Pounding the Table on Bank of America

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Bank of America can be bought for a valuation that reflects the bank as if it were to stand still, even though it is steadily going after the competition and improving its own efficiency and return on capital metrics. By Matthew Warren Powered ahead by its Consumer Banking segment, but held back by Global Banking and Global Markets, Bank of America (BAC) reported decent second-quarter results July 17. Total revenue was up only 2%, but ongoing tremendous cost control helped translate this into 8% net income growth, and ongoing sizable share buybacks meant diluted earnings per share were up a whopping 17%.  Image Source: Bank of America 2Q19 Earnings Presentation Quite simply, if market related revenues weren’t moving backwards from … Read more

Goldman Sachs May Continue to Suffer

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We don’t find Goldman to be very attractive trading above its tangible book value when its return on capital barely clears its cost of capital in the 10th year of a bull market. By Matthew Warren Goldman Sachs (GS) reported second-quarter 2019 results July 16, with net revenues down 2% to $9.46 billion and diluted earnings per share down 3% to $5.81, which was well ahead of Wall Street consensus for $5.03. As you can see in the below graphic, the Investing & Lending segment was the star in the quarter with revenue up 16% versus last year. This is because the quarter included approximately $500 million of net gains from investments that went public during the quarter. We would … Read more

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins

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Second-quarter earnings season is upon us. The markets aren’t expecting much growth. Core industrial names may not fare well, but thus far, big pharma is solid. We’re not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re off to the races with second-quarter earnings season. The markets aren’t expecting much, with the consensus for S&P 500 (SPY) companies to experience a 3% earnings decline, according to FactSet. If this happens, this would mark the first time S&P 500 companies, in aggregate, would have posted year-over-year declines since the first half of 2016. The markets have rallied considerably since then, and despite the strong earnings expansion aided in part by corporate tax cuts, the 12-month forward P/E ratio … Read more

Wells Fargo Showing Damage from Scandals

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Wells might be leaking core deposits as compared to peers and paying up for interest earning deposits. By Matthew Warren Wells Fargo (WFC) reported second-quarter 2019 earnings July 16, with revenue flat at $21.6 billion and diluted EPS of $1.30 as compared to $1.16 Wall Street consensus and $0.98 earned in the same period last year. Cost control improved marginally with noninterest expense down $533 million to $13.4B in the quarter, but at an improved 62.3% (versus 64.9% last year) the bank’s efficiency ratio is still meaningfully worse than peers. Since the beginning of 2018, Wells has reduced 18,000 full time employees via cost cutting efforts, but then had to add back the same amount in … Read more