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Stock Market Locked in Technical Downtrend; Millionaires Expect More Pain in 2023

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Image: The stock market has been locked in a downtrend through all of 2022, and the latest bull trap has spoiled the Santa Claus rally. 2023 may be an equally rough year. By Brian Nelson, CFA This market just doesn’t want to go higher in the near term, and the latest bull trap wasn’t encouraging at all. We think long term investors should stay the course, but it is looking more and more like we won’t see a stock market bottom until sometime in 2023. Santa brought coal this year. The false breakout of the downtrend on December 13 was very telling. Just when investors thought the markets just might be headed for a strong Santa Claus rally and a … Read more

The Market Doesn’t Go Straight Up

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Key Takeaways: ·     Though we fall short of prognosticating on the immediate moves of the stock market, we think the near-term risk-reward of the broader market is growing more and more negative. Why? o    Market volatility is back due to Fed speak and poor data and pricing action from Asia. Typically, market hiccups signal that a change in price direction is near (we’re no longer going straight up). o    The significant out-numbering of poor scores on our stock-selection methodology, the Valuentum Buying Index, relative to good scores suggests to us that a higher degree of caution may be in order. o    According to Factset, the forward price-to-earnings ratio on S&P 500 constituents registers a 14.4x reading (as of last Thursday), above … Read more