SPY

First Quarter 2017 Comes To A Close

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“Be sure to continue to study the difference between price and value—just because a stock’s price has advanced doesn’t make it more expensive if the value of its enterprise has increased at a faster rate. If you understand this concept, you may be smarter than 99.9% of the investing population.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA The first quarter of 2017 came and went. Including dividends, the S&P 500 (SPY) roared nearly 6% higher during the period thanks to solid gains from the land of technology, an area that we have liked for the longest time. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) advanced more than 10% during the period, and key technology holdings in the Dividend Growth Newsletter … Read more

The “Year of Evangeline Adams” Continues

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Brian Nelson, CFA March 15th marked the 106th consecutive trading session that neither the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) nor the S&P 500 (SPY) has declined 1% during any one day. The streak is now the seventh longest in stock market history for the Dow and the 10th longest for the S&P 500. The markets are now 49 days shy from tying the March 1, 1966, record for the Dow and 79 days shy from the November 21, 1963, record that ended the day before JFK was assassinated. What you see above is not a representation of the latest consecutive streak, but instead a visual of the upward trajectory of the S&P 500 since the March 2009 panic bottom, now more … Read more

Dow 21,000+; Forward P/E on S&P 500 ~18!!!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA To say that the broader equity market is “extended” is an understatement. After testing the 20,000 mark on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), stocks have now plowed through 21,000 in such a fashion that can only be compared to the euphoric trading activity of 1999 when the index surged to 11,000 from 10,000 over roughly the same time frame. Who remembers the days of the dot-com bubble? The market is clearly off its rocker, but the market isn’t always on its rocker. Stock prices under and overshoot intrinsic value all of the time. It’s a part of the markets, as much as oxygen is necessary for human life. The markets overshot to the downside during … Read more

Alpha-Creating Hasbro-Hanesbrands?

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Understanding some of our recent moves in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and the context of the Hasbro-Hanesbrands alpha-generating trade-off…how can this be, right? By Brian Nelson, CFA Every reader is different with a different perspective, time horizon, and goals, and I try to provide as much context and background as possible in my writings for those reasons and more. We won’t always get everything right every time (nobody does), but I think your knowing how and why we do things (and being the judge) is par for the course with any membership. Gaining your trust is very important to me, and our team works hard each and every day to do so. Shortly before the release of the Dividend … Read more

Dividend Growth Newsletter: Evaluating Our 2016 Dividend Growth Picks

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“…the average return of our dividend growth picks has blown the return of the S&P 500 out of the water during the past two years, and in each of the past two years.” By Brian Nelson, CFA What say us of our dividend growth stock-selection skills? First, on a portfolio level, I am very proud to say that the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio has advanced in each of the past two years, while the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) has been significantly more volatile, declining during 2015, and bouncing back during 2016. For supposedly steady-eddy dividend growth indices, they tend to be quite volatile relative to the Valuentum Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, one of the main reasons why I don’t … Read more

5 Shocking Stock Market Predictions for 2017

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Image Source: Claudia Dea  Valuentum: 2017 Is the Year of Evangeline Adams By Brian Nelson, CFA “Entrepreneurs are never satisfied. They want to do things better. They strive for perfection and use all the ingenuity to their command to achieve it.” – J.W. Marriott My Inbox Was Overflowing with Kindness Your positive replies to my last email, “Words Cannot Express How I Feel” were simply incredible. My inbox was flooded with so many emails, so many kind words. There were so many that I’m still working through them. If you haven’t received a personal reply, plan on getting one. You’re very important to me. It’s quite possible that I may very well be the luckiest man to have such wonderful … Read more

Is It Time or Timing in the Market?

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Image Source: Dimitris Kalogeropoylos By Brian Nelson, CFA Since joining the workforce after undergraduate studies, those that will be turning 30 years’ old during 2017 will have never witnessed a meaningful bear market, large down year, or even a substantial “correction” in the stock market during their working lives. That’s right — many workers that were born in the mid-1980s when Ronald Reagan was President are probably starting to believe that they’ve found the secret to investing success and that broader US markets only go up (or down just a little at times, but they always recover and go higher). No matter if this assessment of their opinion of the markets is true or not may not matter. At the … Read more

Image: Returns Following the Trump Victory

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To download the table for easier viewing, please select the link . Financials: Trump’s Treasury Secretary choice Steven Mnuchin wants to repeal most of the burdensome Dodd-Frank legislation. A steepening yield curve is helping banks and may drive improved net interest margins in coming periods. Goldman Sachs is ripping higher, leading the Dow’s charge.   Crude Oil: The world is moving to a better balance in supply/demand dynamics in the energy markets. OPEC is talking, has agreed to cuts, and expectations for improved economic growth are helping energy resource pricing. High-beta companies such as Continental Resources are rallying hard.   Energy: Capital spending cuts are bolstering free cash flow in the upstream space as energy resource pricing improves. Reduced regulations could help … Read more

Warren Buffett Is Back Into Airlines, Should You?

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Warren Buffett has changed his mind about airline stocks… In this 10-minute podcast, the Valuentum analyst team talks all about the hazards of the airline business model from substantial operating leverage to the risks of volatile jet fuel costs to bankruptcies and beyond. The team also highlights the long-term passenger growth prospects of the sector, and recent consolidation that has brewed a more optimistic tone from industry observers. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here. Ticckerized for airline-related equities around the globe. Brian Nelson, CFA: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly requires significant capital to engender the growth and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. There’s a durable competitive advantage that has proven … Read more

Are S&P 500 Stocks Returning Too Much Cash to Shareholders?

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S&P 500 companies are on pace to return a record amount of capital to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, but what are the investment implications? Let’s take a look. By Kris Rosemann How can any company return too much cash to its shareholders, right? Well, let’s first start this discussion of recent capital allocation trends with some clarifying thoughts. We’re not against corporations returning excess capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks (SPYB, PKW), provided they are value-generating moves. In many ways, we’re just as excited as the rest of the market about generating sustainable and growing income via strong dividend paying equities, as evidenced by the existence of the Dividend Growth Newsletter and the strong performance of its … Read more