RSP

We Don’t Think Intel Will Spoil the Tech Rally

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Image Shown: The Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) has broken through its technical downtrend, and we don’t think Intel’s poor outlook will derail this tech rally. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA The Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) has rallied more than 12% to start 2023, and we don’t think much will derail the advance. The pace of inflation looks like it peaked in June 2022 and save for a few big quarterly earnings misses from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Intel (INTC), fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season is shaping up better than feared for a lot of companies. The labor market is easing a bit, and a breakout of both the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) and the market-cap weight S&P 500 (SPY) … Read more

Market-Cap Weighted S&P 500 Breaks Out; Have We Already Seen the Bottom?

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Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) has broken through its downtrend. The markets could be headed meaningfully higher. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson CFA Excess savings in consumer bank accounts from the pandemic stimulus and government intervention that was issued during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic will start to deplete almost entirely by the middle of this year. Talk of the debt ceiling on the U.S.’s national debt of $31.5 trillion is emerging, and interest on the debt will start to crowd out other spending with respect to the national budget. The markets, however, are forward looking, and many of these concerns are largely “baked in.” Within the discounted cash-flow model, for example, we take into consideration … Read more

Markets Look Vulnerable, Adding “Protection”

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Image: The S&P 500 (SPY) and corresponding 50-day (green), 100-day (purple), and 200-day moving averages (red). We expect the SPY may have to “correct” to the 200-day moving average, or about $412-$413 per share before it finds its footing. Self-inflicted wounds the past several weeks have altered the market’s sentiment for the worse, and we don’t think the selling is done yet. To read the email, please click here. — Hi everyone: — Volatility has picked up, and options trading is all the rage. — The markets are under pressure again this morning, and we’re not wasting any time to add put option “protection” to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The last time we added … Read more

Is It Time or Timing in the Market?

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Image Source: Dimitris Kalogeropoylos By Brian Nelson, CFA Since joining the workforce after undergraduate studies, those that will be turning 30 years’ old during 2017 will have never witnessed a meaningful bear market, large down year, or even a substantial “correction” in the stock market during their working lives. That’s right — many workers that were born in the mid-1980s when Ronald Reagan was President are probably starting to believe that they’ve found the secret to investing success and that broader US markets only go up (or down just a little at times, but they always recover and go higher). No matter if this assessment of their opinion of the markets is true or not may not matter. At the … Read more

Podcast: FALLACY of Index Funds!

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The Valuentum Analyst team digs deep into the logical fallacy that paved the way for index funds, and the very real risks investors take while driving with their hands off the wheel looking only through the rear-view mirror. Summary Please read the first 3 minutes of the presentation (there is no audio at the beginning). Pause the program if you require more time to read. If you still don’t see the FALLACY that paved the way for the creation of index funds, be sure to comment below. The last 10 minutes of the program comprises a discussion by the Valuentum team of active versus passive. Looking forward to a good discussion. Please be sure to view the transcript below if … Read more

How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?

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How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI)? By Brian Nelson, CFA   Hi everyone,     Hope you are doing great!  We often receive questions about how we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) rating system, one of the key metrics we use to source ideas for our members, but we think it is equally important to mention up front that the VBI is only one of the many facets of our website and services. For example, if you haven’t checked out the Dividend Cushion ratios on the stocks in your portfolio or the dividend growth product (from individual reports to the newsletter and beyond), surely you are not maximizing your membership! Don’t forget about the Economic Castle rating, … Read more