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What’s Working in Today’s Market?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As emerging markets around the world suffer from commodity-price-led economic weakness, capital continues to find a safe-haven in US government bonds (TLT, TBT), but for those equity-oriented funds that mandate a fully-invested status, not something we’re particularly advocates of, assets within US equities have favored “lower-beta” utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) sectors while cyclically-dependent and credit-levered sectors such as the financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) have suffered thus far in 2016. The industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) sectors have also encountered higher-than-normal selling pressure in the first few weeks of the New Year, as investors evaluate the global economic landscape and what a prolonged period of low energy prices may mean for the lowest quality … Read more

ICYMI: 5 Concerns About Impending Rate Hikes

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The first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade came and went December 16, putting an environment of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to an end, a policy that grew out of the Financial Crisis and the depths of the Great Recession late last decade. The Fed had paused plans to hike the federal funds rate for much of 2015 as a result, in our view, of getting a more informed read on the potential implications of emerging market developments–namely dislocations in the local Chinese equity markets (FXI) and recessionary conditions in Brazil (EWZ)–and the stock market crash (SPY) in the US in August that sent equities of some of the most well-known stocks including Apple (AAPL) and General Electric … Read more

Keurig Green Mountain Goes Private

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Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) will be taken private by a JAB Holding Co. led investor group for ~$13.9 billion in cash. The price of ~$92 per share represents a 78% premium to the company’s December 4 closing share price, which was the result of a year of disappointing earnings and questions about the firm’s long-term growth prospects. In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Keurig recorded double-digit declines in net sales, operating income, net income, and diluted income per share. Though the price premium certainly was a surprise (greater than the high end of the fair value estimate range), the buyout hardly comes as a surprise to us. We have been of the opinion that a takeout would the best case scenario … Read more

Consumer Staples Giants Demonstrate Pricing Strength

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The strengthening US dollar continues to muddy quarterly results for multinational corporations. Coca-Cola (KO), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), and Procter & Gamble (PG) were no exception in the calendar third quarter. The consumer staples giants demonstrated the strength of their scale and pricing power in the quarter, though reported results could not overcome the significant pressure of foreign-exchange headwinds in economies around the globe with varying growth levels. Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, and Procter & Gamble hold some of the most well-known consumer staples brands in the world. Coca-Cola, for one, has perhaps the most-recognizable soft-drink portfolio of any company, Kimberly-Clark boasts a wide range of trusted consumer staples brands from Huggies to Kleenex, and Procter & Gamble has one of the most diverse … Read more

Earnings Brings Out Volatility of Speculative Entities

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Tesla Falls on Lowered Delivery Guidance Tesla’s (TSLA) shares fell following the release of its second-quarter results August 5, despite beating consensus estimates on revenue and earnings per share. The firm reported non-GAAP revenue growing 40% from the year-ago period to $1.2 billion, and a non-GAAP loss of $61 million or $0.48 per share. The company was significantly cash flow negative through the first half of 2015 due in large part to capital expenditures for capacity expansion and tooling associated with the new Model X and the construction of the Tesla Energy Gigafactory. Management claims its capital spending is more efficient than ever in terms of capital spend per unit of incremental capacity, which will be necessary to get the firm … Read more

Organic Growth Sweetens Nonalcoholic Beverage Industry

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The nonalcoholic beverage segment of the commercial beverage industry is highly competitive, consisting of numerous companies that make various sparkling beverages, water products, juices, fruit drinks, energy and other performance-enhancing drinks. Pricing, advertising, product innovation, and the availability of in-store private-label beverages are key drivers that impact demand. Growth for nonalcoholic beverage producers has become increasingly dependent on the emerging global middle class in recent years. For example, Latin America was the most productive region for most producers in the second quarter. Consumers in developed economies have become more and more aware of the health concerns associated with sugar-sweetened beverages like soft drinks, and have therefore been more inclined to choose healthier alternatives. Industry participants are constantly innovating their products … Read more

Here’s A Quick Proof of Why We Think the Way We Do

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Let’s walk through a very basic proof of why we think the way we do. 1) Stocks have an intrinsic value per share that is based on the underlying firm’s future free cash flows and net balance sheet (among other adjustments). Why? Because an investor can buy the whole company outright, pay off the debtholders, and reap the rewards of the future free cash flow stream. 2) Stock prices trade around the firm’s intrinsic value per share, sometimes above it, sometimes below it. Why? Because stock prices are unpredictable in the near term, and purchases and sales can be for a variety of reasons that are unrelated to the fundamentals. 3) Stock prices that are converging to intrinsic value have a greater … Read more

Part I: Nelson’s Notes on Berkshire Hathaway’s 2014 Newsletter

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Hi all, It has taken me a few weeks to get a chance to read the annual newsletter of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), and this year’s installment was not a disappointment. For me personally, there’s not a lot of incremental insights that are gleaned, but I like reviewing the newsletter because the annual installment is invaluable for new investors, especially those looking to learn about the markets and how to think about them. What I’ll do below and in future parts is pull out a sentence or paragraph from the annual report and add to it or comment on it in order to provide further perspective. It should make for some great conversation. I’m not sure how many … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending February 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Analog Devices (ADI):  $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Argo Group (AGII): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Autoliv (ALV): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.54. Coca-Cola (KO): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.305. Colgate-Palmolive (CL): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. Corrections Corporation of America (CXW): now $0.54 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.51. CVR Partners … Read more