IEP

The Fall of an Icahn?

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Image Source: danor shtruzman Hindenburg Research put together a compelling short report on Icahn Enterprises (IEP). We think it is worth a read here >> NOW READ — Thought Piece: The Hidden Advantage ———- It’s Here!  The Second Edition of Value Trap! Order today!   —– Tickerized for IEP, JEF, CVI, UAN, GLRE. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, and RSP. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.  Valuentum members have access to our 16-page … Read more

Thought Piece: The Hidden Advantage

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As activist investing proliferates, investors are becoming more and more familiar with celebrity investing gurus such as Carl Icahn and David Einhorn. Let’s examine how these investing giants have carved out a unique structural advantage over mom-and-pop investors. This article was originally published in June 2014. By Brian Nelson, CFA Wouldn’t it be great to load up on options and then announce to the world that you’ve done so, thereby generating tremendous gains as other investors pile into the stock driving its price higher? I think most investors either believe that such behavior is mere fantasy, or would love to have this significant influence for their own use, assuming it was legal. Perhaps to your surprise, this behavior is neither … Read more

Herbalife Sees a Slow Recovery Ahead

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Image Source: Herbalife Nutrition Limited – 2018 10-K By Callum Turcan Many of you may remember Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) from the “epic” duel between two very well-known titans in the financial world, Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, which was held on CNBC in January 2013. The argument at the time fundamentally rested on whether multi-level marketing companies were viable commercial entities or pyramid schemes set to crumble on themselves, with Mr. Icahn backing Herbalife while Mr. Ackman took the other side of that trade. Herbalife is a multi-level marketing company that uses the direct selling business model to market and sell nutritional products to consumers all over the globe with a focus on energy, fitness, and sports. The company’s Formula … Read more

Tenneco’s Shares Undervalued Leading Up to Business Separation

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  Image Source: Tenneco fourth quarter earnings presentation We think shares of Tenneco are undervalued as the company gears up to complete a business separation in the back half of 2019, but we’re not interested in the stock as a great deal of uncertainty surrounds not only the company itself but the auto supplier industry in general. Expectations for a decline in global light vehicle production in 2019 coupled with heightened concerns over the pace of global economic growth do not bode well for the group, and the auto landscape is one that may see material change in coming years. By Kris Rosemann The auto and transportation space continues to evolve, and companies in all verticals within it are working … Read more

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Price Risk” in High Yield

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  Image Source: Julien Carnot We want you to learn about a unique risk innate to the high yield space like the back of your hand. We’ll explain the “information contained in prices” and talk about what you should be on the lookout for, the “avalanche effect.” Order the High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I received a question from a dear member of ours, and I think it may be helpful that I share the response. The question had to do with why we may be ultra-cautious on high-yielding stocks that are facing considerable price declines. The risk described below makes the high yield space uniquely different than other equity strategies, in our view, … Read more

MLP Speak: A Critique of Distributable Cash Flow

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–> Handout 1: Pitfalls of Distribution Yield Analysis (pdf) –> Handout 2: Linking P/DCF to Enterprise Free Cash Flow Valuation (pdf) Let’s talk about a controversial metric that is used in master limited partnership (MLP) reporting. Just how useful is it, and should it be allowed? By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been a few years since the fallout in the prices of most master limited partnerships (AMLP), but to me, it still feels like yesterday. We continue to have many concerns about the longevity of the business models of MLPs, and we maintain our view that the operating structure will be challenged over the long haul. New equity and debt funding (issuance) continues to, in part, fuel the distributions of most MLPs, … Read more

Soros, Icahn, Nelson Hedge for Market Fall

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Pictured: George Soros; source: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung By The Valuentum Team Following news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) took a rather sizable stake in Apple (AAPL), news flow from other large investors continues to be decidedly bearish. As our members are aware, we recently added put options on the S&P 500 (SPY) to protect capital in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, a move that may expire worthless but accurately captures our sentiment toward today’s overheated equity market. As of May 13, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio on S&P 500 companies is 16.6, above both its 5-year average (14.5) and 10-year average (14.3). Reversion to the 10-year average alone means the S&P 500 Sector SPDR ETF (SPY) has downside risk to ~$170 … Read more

Time to Scoop Up More GE? Another Activist Stake in Yet Another Newsletter Portfolio Holding

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Stocks in Valuentum’s newsletter portfolios–the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio–are often ones that find the greatest interest among activist investors. After all, they are generally undervalued on a discounted cash-flow basis, generate tremendous amounts of free cash flow, and have solid balance sheets, flush with cash that can be used to pay outsize dividends. This makes them ripe for shareholder activism, which so far, has been a blessing for constituents of the newsletter portfolios as share prices are driven higher. Traditionally, it has been Carl Icahn (IEP) that has taken a liking to our ideas. The activist investor, and chosen Treasury Secretary of Presidential hopeful Donald Trump, has been involved at one time or another in … Read more

Speculative Stocks Sinking

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“The world economy is in its worst shape since the Great Recession. And medium- to low-grade corporate credits will not escape the drag of global malaise.” – Moody’s, September 25, 2015 All is not well in the “medium-to-low grade corporate credit market, and if a warning from Moody’s wasn’t enough, famed activist investor Carl Icahn (IEP) applied more pressure with his controversial and headline-grabbing 15-minute video, “Danger Ahead.” We think it makes sense to be cautious in today’s gyrating market environment, which continues to face a number of tangible headwinds, not the least of which are stretched equity valuations, “broken” technicals, and worsening sentiment. The collapse in China’s stock market, its potential knock-on effects across the global banking system, the … Read more

Apple and World Domination?

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Everybody wants to love Apple (AAPL), except those that don’t own it. If you don’t own it, don’t sweat it. We still very much like the company, but there are a number of other companies where we can certainly find common ground. Our cost basis on Apple is but a fraction of where it is trading, and we’re still happy with the latest transaction from the July 24, 2013, email transaction alert when the company was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and when the existing position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio was increased. To us, Apple is not so much a technology company, as it is levered to the ongoing strength toward consumer mobilization, which is inevitable. … Read more