GE

A “Terrible” Negative Alpha-Generating “Trade” and More

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Let’s walk through some of the news before the Thanksgiving holiday, and one of the bigger missteps we made during 2017. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’d like to run through the news before many of you take a break for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks again for your attention. It means the world to our team that you see and understand the things that we’re doing, the great calls we make with our top-weighted ideas (see here and here), the extensive valuation processes we perform with respect to the discounted cash-flow process (see here), and how we provide that in downloadable pdf form (see here) – and we’re here to talk about our expectations! You can get reports from anybody, of … Read more

Valuentum’s “Home Runs” During 2017

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Image Source: Keith Allison By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re doing a lot of things right, but you (yes, you!) mean the world to our team. For best ideas, see the portfolio on page 8 of the Best Ideas Newsletter here (pdf). For best dividend growth ideas, see the portfolio on page 5 of the Dividend Growth Newsletter here (pdf). I want to make sure you have these at your fingertips. We appreciate your business so much! We wrote up an analysis of ideas that were included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the beginning of 2017. The ideas included in these respective portfolios are our best ideas for each respective strategy, with two distinctions … Read more

How Have Our Best “Dividend Growth Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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Read about the ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio >> We wrote recently about how well the top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio have performed during 2017, but what about the top-weighted ideas in the other newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio? How have they performed during 2017? Please tell us you know how well the top-weighted ideas have been performing. Key Takeaways: 1) “Excluding dividends, the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF has advanced less than 9% this year. Meanwhile, excluding dividends, the two top-weighted ideas in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Johnson & Johnson and Intel, are up ~20% and ~24%, respectively, more than double that of the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF.”  2) “We’re viewing … Read more

How Have Our “Best Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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The top-weighted ideas are getting the job done, while we avoided one of the biggest missteps in all of 2017. We’ve had better years, but 2017 was still a great one. Key takeaways: 1) “The top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Apple and Visa, performed wonderfully from the release of the December 2016 newsletter through November 13, 2017, averaging more than an increase of 45%, excluding dividends, versus a mid-teens percentage advance for the S&P 500, excluding dividends.” 2) “The weighting concept within a portfolio context is an important one because, as a portfolio manager adds more and more ideas to the portfolio, the next best idea is just that–the next best one–so the probability of diluting portfolio … Read more

GE Takes the Plunge, Halves Dividend

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There may have been little surprise across the market when GE halved its dividend in its investor update November 13, but shares are selling off after management issued weaker-than-expected EPS guidance for 2018. By Kris Rosemann We can’t say we didn’t see this coming for General Electric (GE), a newsletter idea we parted ways with in May of this year as concerns rose over the sustainability of its dividend. It registered a Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.3 and dividend growth and dividend safety ratings of VERY POOOR at the time of the cut. The halving of GE’s dividend did not come as a surprise to most, “GE Cuts Guidance, All Eyes Turn to November 13,” but shares are still facing … Read more

GE Cuts Guidance, All Eyes Turn to November 13

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Image Source: darkon_turaas On October 20, General Electric slashed its guidance for earnings and cash flow from operating activities after reporting another weak quarter. Could the dividend be next on the chopping block? Management will update investors on company strategy and its 2018 framework Monday, November 13, an event to which we’ll be paying close attention. By Kris Rosemann Our decision to rid the newsletter portfolios of shares of General Electric (GE) in mid-May was driven by expectations for material pressure to build on the industrial giant’s free cash flow generation, “Newsletter Alert: Title Withheld – Members Only.” Such concerns have all but materialized as management has slashed its adjusted EPS and Industrial CFOA targets for full year 2017 following a … Read more

GE Dividend Cut Coming Sooner Than Later, Says Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg

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Image Source: darkon_turaas We’ve been warning about the tight rope GE has been walking with respect to its dividend. Concerns are spreading, and it seems a dividend cut may be coming sooner than later, according to some sources. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s unconfirmed, but Seeking Alpha is reporting that much-beleaguered General Electric (GE) may potentially slash its quarterly dividend to $0.18 per share from $0.24 per share the week of October 15-21, sourcing Bloomberg. We can’t find much more to substantiate the report other than the Seeking Alpha post, “GE seen cutting dividend next week – Bloomberg,” but we, too, have had myriad concerns about the sustainability of the payout of the former idea in both the Best Ideas … Read more

Video: Explaining the Valuentum Buying Index

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The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) stands on the shoulders of giants in finance in uncovering investment ideas.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I would like to talk about our Valuentum Buying Index, the stock selection methodology that we use and apply across our entire coverage universe. But before I get into some of the specifics, I’d like to provide more or less a summary. Essentially what the Valuentum Buying Index does is it highlights undervalued stocks that are going up in price. Undervalued stocks with good momentum…Value-ntum stocks. So, at the core, the Valuentum Buying Index tries to find stocks that we think have a very strong likelihood of equity price appreciation. It breaks … Read more

Stocks in the News: Visa, Microsoft, General Electric

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Image source: Visa Let’s have a look at the quarterly reports from a few stocks in the news July 21. By Brian Nelson, CFA Visa’s (V) Margin Profile Remains Excellent Top-weighted position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is approaching the “century mark” after reporting solid fiscal third-quarter results July 20. Visa’s net operating revenue advanced 26% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter thanks in part to the inclusion of Visa Europe, and the company recorded GAAP net income of $2.1 billion, or $0.86 per share, better than consensus expectations. Visa CEO Alfred Kelly noted that performance reflected “strong growth in payments volume, cross-border volume, and processed transactions, which were powered by economic tailwinds in the US and globally.” We … Read more

I CARE

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Image Shown: The S&P 500 from early 2009 through today, June 15, 2017. By Brian Nelson, CFA There it is — the upward-sloping chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) since the March 2009 panic bottom. What a sight to see… The past 8 years have marked an incredible bull market in US equities and one for the record books in many instances. The drivers behind the multi-year rally have been many — ultra-low interest rates and their magnifying impact on equity valuations, strong earnings growth from the doldrums of the Financial Crisis, and the proliferation of passive and dividend-growth strategies de-emphasizing the price-versus-value equation. “Money,” it seems, is chasing stocks at any price, and most of the trading on exchanges … Read more