GBTC

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins

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Second-quarter earnings season is upon us. The markets aren’t expecting much growth. Core industrial names may not fare well, but thus far, big pharma is solid. We’re not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re off to the races with second-quarter earnings season. The markets aren’t expecting much, with the consensus for S&P 500 (SPY) companies to experience a 3% earnings decline, according to FactSet. If this happens, this would mark the first time S&P 500 companies, in aggregate, would have posted year-over-year declines since the first half of 2016. The markets have rallied considerably since then, and despite the strong earnings expansion aided in part by corporate tax cuts, the 12-month forward P/E ratio … Read more

We Still Like PayPal

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Image shown: PayPal has absolutely trounced the market since we retained it in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio after its split from eBay. Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea PayPal has trounced the market by more than 100 percentage points since it split from eBay in July 2015. We continue to like shares. By Brian Nelson, CFA PayPal (PYPL) split from eBay (EBAY) in July 2015, and we couldn’t be more pleased with its performance since then. The company has exceeded the market’s return by more than 100 percentage points. This is simply incredible, and we hope that you are pleased. We’re also liking how a lot of our ideas are acting with respect to relative strength in this … Read more

In The News: Oil, Housing, and Cryptocurrency

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Let’s take a look at some market-impacting headlines from the morning of November 19, including volatile oil prices, pressure in the housing market, and the sustained decline in Bitcoin. By Kris Rosemann Speculation in the global crude oil market (USO) that Saudi Arabia would be able to lead OPEC and Russia to cut supply appears to have taken a hit as Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated his views that producers need to monitor supply and demand levels in the coming weeks before deciding on a course of action. Saudi-led OPEC is looking to strike a similar production cap agreement to those seen in recent years with the goal of reducing output by 1 million barrels per day to 1.4 … Read more

The Inflating Index Fund Bubble

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Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last? By Brian Nelson, CFA Those that know Valuentum know that we stand up for the individual investor, and we work our tails off to make sure that we get the individual investor the very best of information and informed judgment. The CFA Institute via its Enterprising blog showcases a … Read more

PayPal Hits New Highs!

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We continue to watch PayPal as it has been a fantastic idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio since it split from eBay. Rivalries are intensifying in the digital payments space and the company will have to replace lost business with eBay in coming years, but we still like the idea. We also view Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as more an opportunity than a threat for many digital payment providers. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, PayPal (PYPL) announced it would acquire Hyperwallet for $400 million in cash. We think the PayPal executive team was impressed with the technology at Hyperwallet, which faciliates the ability to “pay almost anyone almost anywhere in the world.” As PayPal fuses this … Read more

Protectionists Gaining Control, Implications on Europe and China

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It looks like the US-imposed tariffs are moving forward, and we’re starting to hear chatter about retaliation from Europe. Canada and Mexico may be exempt from the tariffs, however. By Kris Rosemann Mr. Market reacted unfavorably to President Trump’s top economic advisor Gary Cohn’s resignation announcement March 7, as Cohn was seen as a voice for Wall Street in the White House. Though the reaction may be short-lived, fears of the implications of increasing control from protectionists probably shouldn’t be ignored, and the probability of a trade war, particularly with China (FXI, MCHI) and with Europe, presumably moves higher with Cohn’s exit. Canada (EWC) and Mexico (EWW) may be exempt from the tariffs, however. The European Union is already reportedly … Read more

Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back

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Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 – The Missile Defense Agency’s Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine — All of this over just a … Read more

Newsletter Portfolio Idea GM Powers Higher, Markets Calm Down…a Bit

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The US markets still faced quite a bit of volatility during the trading session February 6, but it wasn’t anything compared to the bloodbath from Groundhog Day and the subsequent Monday. We can only hope that the worst has passed, but it probably hasn’t. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA After overnight fears February 5/6 of a significant drop at the stock-market open–the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) had been indicated down as much as 1,000 points at one point–stocks jumped between positive and negative during the trading session February 6, and the last 24-48 hours have seen more than its fair share of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 50 for the first time since August … Read more

The Sell Off February 5 Remains Minimal Compared to the Gains of Past Years

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Image shown: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) share price performance since mid-2009. The pullback the past few days hasn’t amounted to much, but it has caught the attention of investors.   Recent equity market price declines don’t add up to much compared to the huge gains of recent years. Typical bear markets result in the evaporation of nearly 40% of investor wealth, on average. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The recent sell-off in equities accelerated in the trading session February 5 as concerns regarding an uptick in inflation (embedded in discount rates within valuation frameworks) and potentially materially tightening monetary policy in the US are weighing on investors’ minds. When the dust finally settled at … Read more

Boeing!

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Image shown: Boeing’s shares have been rocketing higher of late!  We couldn’t be more pleased with how one of our best ideas for consideration has performed: Boeing! By Kris Rosemann Dividend Gowth Newsletter portfolio idea Boeing (BA) continues its tremendous share-price run of late, hitting all-time highs following its earnings report before market open January 31. The aerospace giant turned in 9% revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, while GAAP earnings per share doubled from the year-ago period to $5.18. Free cash flow remained robust in the full-year 2017, advancing to ~$11.6 billion from ~$7.9 billion in 2016. The company expects operating cash flow to climb to ~$15 billion in 2018 (up from $13.3 billion in 2017), and its revenue … Read more