FXA

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 6

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): now $0.195 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT): now $1.2748 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.23. Cisco (CSCO): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA): now $0.05599 per share monthly dividend, was $0.05154. CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF (FXC): now $0.01500 per share monthly dividend, was $0.01107. Dollar … Read more

Currency: Cases in Probabilistic Thinking

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The rally in the Mexican peso relative to the US dollar during the first Trump-Clinton debate of 2016 showcased the increased likelihood of a Clinton victory, in light of Trump’s current political agenda. Instances like this, where currency markets serve to act as a probability indicator of the likelihood of a future event, have occurred through the course of history, the most fasinating of which happened during the American Civil War and with Confederate scrip specifically. Image Source: Bloomberg, “Mexican Peso Gives Clearest Signal Trump Lost Debate“ By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we talk a lot about how markets act as “discounting” mechanisms of the probability of future events, and more specifically as it relates to stocks, how a … Read more

When “Bad” News Is “Good” News…Take A Euro Trip?

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Pack the bags, kiss the grandkids, it’s time to do some traveling!!! Maybe to Europe? From a global perspective, for those whose wealth and income is generated in US dollars, you can arguably buy more with one US dollar today than at any other time in the past 12 years, according to a popular index that measures the value of the dollar versus a basket of other currencies. Expectations are being ratcheted up for impending interest rate hikes by the Fed, and this means that assets are flying into US greenbacks from all over the world. The dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, the loonie, the aussie, the rand, and the list goes on and on. This decade … Read more

BHP or Rio Tinto? Is That the Right Question?

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Dr. Copper is speaking, and we don’t like what he’s saying. For those long-tenured market participants, a look at the copper markets (JJC, CPER, CUPM) generally provides insight into the health of the global economy. Copper is used in just about everything related to construction and manufacturing, and the price of the metal signals the relationship between its supply and demand. A strong copper price, therefore, indicates that demand for the metal is healthy, and that in most cases and by extension, the general economy is healthy as well. What we are witnessing in the copper markets, however, is something else, and on a high level, no different than the shellacking the crude oil markets have been experiencing in recent … Read more

Iron Ore Prices Plunge

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Worries about the pace of China’s economic expansion are hurting prices for iron ore. According to data from the Steel Index Ltd, benchmark iron ore dropped more than 8% to $104.70 a dry ton March 10, falling the most since August 2009. Over the weekend, news revealed that Chinese exports dropped a surprisingly 18.1% in February, relative to expectations calling for a 7.5% increase. According to customs data released March 8, China’s imports of iron ore were 61.24 million metric tons in February, significantly below the 86.83 million tons registered in January. The news, while not shocking, wasn’t very pleasant. Still, we’re taking the recently-released February numbers with a grain of salt. Scares regarding the pace of China’s economic growth … Read more

Is the Worst Behind China?

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Summer was not very kind to the Chinese economy. We’ve seen the country hit by concerns of credit overexpansion, as well as negative manufacturing data and declining exports. On top of macro issues, companies that usually prosper in China like Nike (click ticker for report: ) and Yum! Brands (click ticker for report: ) posted weak results. However, after bottoming out at 47.7 during July, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI compiled by Markit turned modestly positive at 50.1 during the month of August (anything above 50 represents expansion). Industry destocking appears to be mostly completed, and manufacturers are receiving more new orders. HSBC’s lead Asian economist Hongbin Qu implied the economy had bottomed, saying in the press release: “The final … Read more

Rio Tinto Improves Cash Flow in Weak Mining Environment

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Key Takeaways ·         Cost cuts helped Rio Tinto stomach weak commodity end markets. ·         Production increases buffered weak iron ore prices. ·         China remains a key driver of growth. Country data flow continues to contradict. ·         We continue to hold Rio Tinto in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio…but we think it could be a wild ride. Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Rio Tinto (click ticker for report: ) announced weak, but better-than-expected, financial performance for the first half of 2013 Thursday. Earnings per share declined 71% year-over-year to $0.93, though revenue declined only 3% year-over-year to $24.5 billion as production increases were able to partially offset commodity price weakness. Underlying earnings per share, which is adjusted for one-time charges, exchange rates, and write-downs, … Read more

China Exports Suffer in June

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Yet another bearish story came out of China Wednesday morning, this time dealing with negative trade data (shown right). Exports for the month of June dropped 3.1% year-over-year versus a consensus expectation of 4% growth. This compares to anemic 1% growth in May. Imports also fell 0.7% year-over-year compared to a consensus expectation of 8%. Without question, we think it’s safe to say growth slowed in China during May and June. (Image Source: The Wall Street Journal). Though these figures were decidedly bearish regarding the health of economic activity in China, Alcoa (click ticker for report: ) provided bullish commentary on the region just yesterday. In fact, management at Alcoa believes China will drive the lion’s share of global growth … Read more

China News Flow Remains Bearish

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Earlier this week, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI was released for the month of June, coming in at 48.2—marginally below the flash PMI of 48.3 we saw earlier in the month (and signaling further contraction). Image Source: Markit, HSBC It seems as though the economic decline in China is worsening, with HSBC noting that job-cutting intensified during the month, registering the most job losses since the Great Recession in 2009. We continue to see several structural issues with the nation, including potential excesses in the “shadow banking system” and increasing labor costs that could make the country a relatively less attractive market for global manufacturers. The cost of Chinese real estate remains in nosebleed territory, perhaps foreshadowing signs (or symptons) of the … Read more