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The “Uninvestable” Twitter and Netflix Buoyed By Takeout Chatter

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By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we like slam-dunk, no-brainer investment opportunities–like Microsoft (MSFT) in the mid-$20s before it doubled, or Visa (V) prior to its strong equity price performance in recent years, or even cigarette-maker Altria (MO) in advance of its ongoing march higher since the dawn of the release of the inaugural Best Ideas Newsletter. Our members count on us to use our knowledge of valuation to sort out “investable” stocks from “uninvestable” ones; good stocks with fundamental promise from bad ones built on fantasy outcomes. Benjamin Graham calls what we do “investing,” while he may call readers that dabble in the two highlighted stocks in this piece “speculators.” There is a difference, and it’s … Read more

The Quiet Analyst Speaks

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Image Description and Source: Mailslot for Cantor Fitzgerald, on the top floors of the WTC. The mailslot was located in a post office near the WTC site. The mailslots are with the Smithsonian Institution. Travis Wise. It’s 9pm Sunday, September 11, 2016. The day is a somber one. The 15th year passing of the tragic events of 9/11 were on everyone’s minds, and I can’t help but think specifically of Cantor Fitzgerald. The financial services company’s headquarters were on the 101st-105th floors of One World Trade Center, just a few floors above the impact zone of one of the hijacked airplanes. The firm lost 658 employees, over two thirds of its workforce, more than “any of the other World Trade … Read more

GAAP or Non-GAAP, No Matter — It’s Free Cash Flow

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Image Source: Christopher Accounting representation of earnings per share, whether GAAP or non-GAAP, is not as important to the valuation context as future free cash flow. Let’s talk about this concept a bit more within our valuation processes. By Kris Rosemann Q: I have been considering investing in Facebook (FB). Your projected five-year operating margin for Facebook is 58%. Currently it is around 40% and has averaged about 38% the last three years. I was wondering if you would be willing to elaborate on those expectations. A: Thank you for the question. What you have noticed in our operating margin assumptions is the discrepancy on the income statement between GAAP and non-GAAP reporting. While our historical data is pulled on a … Read more

Facebook Flying, Twitter Tumbling

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Image Source: Esther Vargas By Kris Rosemann Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook (FB) continues to report incredible growth across its business, while remaining in the heart of the buzz surrounding the future of the Internet. We added the company to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio January 29, and we maintain our view that we haven’t seen anything yet. Facebook meshes with society so well that the company may eventually turn into the “next Internet” if humankind lets it. Let’s talk numbers because that’s what matters. Total revenue leapt nearly 60% in Facebook’s second quarter of 2016 on a year-over-year basis, while diluted earnings per share nearly tripled. The firm’s mobile growth continues to be nothing short of impressive in … Read more

What?!?! Microsoft Acquires LinkedIn; NO!

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Image source: LinkedIn It’s almost hard to believe that Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella would throw ~$26.2 billion of cash in the form of shareholder capital that could potentially go toward one of the best future dividend growth streaks in history at a large, Internet-based acquisition such as LinkedIn (LNKD), but it happened June 13. Unbelievable. We think most of the news outlets had to do a double-take before reporting the news (we did, too), and we’re not surprised that Microsoft’s shares are selling off on the announcement. Some are painting the deal optimistically, but we’re bummed out. We’re removing half of our position in Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on the news at ~$50.18 per share for … Read more

Facebook: It’s All about The Vanity of the User

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Image Source: Sean MacEntee By Brian Nelson, CFA Our thesis on Facebook (FB) is one grounded on the firm foundation that the company holds one of the strongest competitive advantages of any business model, the network effect. What a network effect creates is quite simple to define, but extremely difficult to replicate. Said differently, as more users become engaged with Facebook, more businesses want to interact with Facebook, and as more businesses interact with Facebook, more users may want to engage within Facebook, and so on. It is a virtuous cycle of proliferating advertising revenue growth and optionality, much like we’ve witnessed with eBay’s (EBAY) auction business in the early days of the Internet and with the likes of MasterCard’s … Read more

Netflix Shareholders Need to Get Real?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Netflix is valued as if it will have the economics of three US operations, without having to pay at all for the next two…” We have no problems with investors playing with “fire” if they know that they are and don’t mind losing their shirts, but we posit that, given the popularity of the acronym, FANG, which stands for Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google, now Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), many unsuspecting investors have been lured into Netflix believing these four companies share similar qualities. They absolutely 100% do not. On one hand, Facebook, Amazon, and Alphabet have incredibly strong balance sheets and generate copious amounts of free cash flow, as measured by cash flow … Read more

Alerts: High-grading! GILD–>JNJ; EBAY–>FB

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Pictured: The long-term view of Gilead’s Harvoni franchise has blurred. Prices updated, as of 1:36pmCT. By Brian Nelson, CFA We were very pleased by the market action of Friday, January 29, with the top weightings in each of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio performing extremely well. Visa (V), the largest weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (7%+), is simply “on fire,” with the company trading ~5% higher on the session at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range of $90 per share for shares is starting to look within reach for the credit-card network, “.” Visa generates an operating margin in the mid-60% range (not a typo), and there … Read more

The Bounce in Energy and Potash’s “Surprising” Dividend Cut

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Nothing like Valuentum’s optimistic article last week, January 21, in Barron’s to get the energy markets popping, “Is Kinder Morgan on Road to Recovery,” would you say? Of course, we say that in jest. The equity markets January 28 were defined by optimism that two of the globe’s major energy resource producers, the cartel OPEC and Russia (RSX), would finally come together to alleviate the pain that has been exerted on the price of the black liquid the past 12-24 months with a “meeting.” What we found to be peculiar, however, is that instead of OPEC letting what turned into a “rumor” run, helping to further drive crude oil prices higher, OPEC delegates quickly denied the talk of a potential … Read more

Giddy Up – It’s Earnings Season!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA During the trading session January 27, Apple (AAPL) failed to turn the tide of a disappointing fiscal 2016 first-quarter report (calendar fourth-quarter), “Apple Will Go Lower…And It Will Be ‘Forced’ Into Acquisitions,” and coupled with a Fed statement, where the Committee left interest rates unchanged, as expected, many market observers read between the lines and hit the sell button. On the basis of some of the concerns we’ve outlined, “Not Doom and Gloom – But Just Cautious,” we can completely understand the hesitancy by participants to stay fully exposed to this tumultuous equity market. In many ways, that the Fed has hit the brakes just a few weeks after the long-anticipated rate hike means the global … Read more