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January Auto Sales Roundup

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Auto sales were off to a brisk start in 2013, posting a SAAR for the month of 15.3 million units—maintaining the strong pace we saw near the end of 2012 and up 14% year-over-year. Let’s take a look at how the major US auto OEMs performed. Ford Best Ideas Newsletter holding and standout performer Ford (click ticker for report: ) announced fantastic sales figures for January. Total unit sales jumped 22% year-over-year to 166,501 vehicles, and retail sales jumped 24% year-over-year. Brand strength was pretty broad based, with unit sales of the F-series up 22%, the Fusion up 65%, and the Explorer up 45%. Company-wide car sales jumped 34%, outpacing utility vehicles and trucks, which increased 23% and 11%, respectively. Unfortunately, the … Read more

Ford Posts a Fantastic Fourth Quarter

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Earlier this morning, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) reported fantastic fourth-quarter results that capped off one of the company’s strongest years in its long history. Revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $36.5 billion, easily exceeding consensus estimates. Pre-tax operating profit more than doubled to $1.2 billion, which was also better than anticipated. We see no reason to change our above-market fair value estimate, and we remain very bullish on the company (Image Source: F Earnings Presentation). Not surprisingly, North America (shown above) continued to be the standout segment, with revenue increasing nearly 13% year-over-year and the firm’s operating margin advancing 390 basis points higher. There is some concern about the company losing US market share … Read more

Ford Doubles Its Dividend; Another Catalyst Driving the Firm’s Shares Toward Our Fair Value Estimate

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This morning, automaker and Best Ideas Newsletter holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) announced that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 100%, to $0.10 per share. We predicted Ford would resume its dividend, and the raise comes as little surprise to us, given Ford’s improved capital structure and eagerness to return cash to shareholders. We expect to update our dividend report on Ford soon. At its current price, the annual dividend yield is now approximately 2.9%, while the yield on cost of those who invested alongside Valuentum is substantially higher at approximately 3.7%. Not only does the yield provide investors with a stronger income stream, but the increased dividend reflects management’s confidence in the business going into 2013, … Read more

December Auto Sales Roundup

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December auto sales were reported by the major US auto manufacturers Thursday, and it appears the monthly SAAR was somewhere between 15.4 and 15.6 million units. Let’s dig into the results. Ford Best Idea Newsletter holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) has been on a tear since reporting a record operating margin in North America during its most recent quarter. Shares are up 35% during the past three months, and December’s results were another positive for the automaker. Company-wide unit sales grew 1.9% compared to the same period last year, driven by a 2.5% unit gain at the Ford brand, but hurt by a unit decline of 12% at Lincoln. For the year, unit sales in the US grew … Read more

Dear Valuentum Member

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In such a short time that you’ve known us, you have seen us do so much: from generating more than 25 percentage points of outperformance in our Best Ideas portfolio since inception (May 2011) to delivering on our high-single-digit return goal of our Dividend Growth portfolio during 2012 to the Valuentum Dividend Cushion score predicting the dividend cuts of JC Penney (JCP), SuperValu (SVU), Roundy’s (RNDY), and others. You’ve seen us identify a triple in EDAC Tech (EDAC) and predict the bankruptcy of the parent of American Airlines (AMR). These are tremendous accomplishments. There’s an old saying in the market that if your winners are outperforming your losers, you’re doing a great job. Through November of last year, 87% of … Read more

The Valuentum Ideas100; A Compilation of the Highest-Quality Firms on the Market Today!

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Financial advisors and investors literally have thousands of stocks—large and small, domestic and foreign–to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go to find the most trusted opinions on the highest-quality companies on the market today?   That’s the question we seek to answer with our Valuentum Ideas100 publication. In this document, we showcase the highest-quality firms from each sector (100 in total) on the basis of our assessment of their competitive advantages (ROIC less WACC spread) and risk profiles (our ValueRisk™ rating). We believe the strength and sustainability of a firm’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is the best quantitative way to assess a company’s competitive advantages, and we believe a deep dive into … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio Modeling Made Easy!

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Empowering Dividend Growth Investors Do you or your clients have a dividend growth portfolio? If so, this model is indispensable. It’s the best tool out there to account for the quarterly reinvestment of growing dividends after adjusting for future equity price growth in a portfolio setting. This model will allow you to better plan for your and your clients’ retirement needs and has unmatched functionality. Plus, this tool has easy-to-follow instructions and is customized to provide deliverable print outs for you or your clients. Your firm’s logo can be added, too. To purchase Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Retirement Portfolio Model (Calculator), please click here! The model, built by Brian Nelson, CFA, sets out to do much more than what other simple dividend … Read more

GM Repurchasing Two Hundred Million Shares from the US

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Wednesday morning, US auto giant General Motors (click ticker for report: ) announced that it will repurchase 200 million shares from the US government for $5.5 billion. The US government also announced that it will sell its remaining 300 million shares opportunistically over the next 12-15 months. The sale will leave the US with a loss, but for the purpose of investing, the loss means little to us. Though the price GM will pay—approximately $27.50 per share—exceeds the current market value, it is still lower than our median fair value estimate. More importantly, however, it removes the worry (overhang) that the government-owned shares would be dumped on the market, putting downward pressure on the share price. We like the move for both reasons, … Read more