ETP

We Like the News! Buffett Scoops Up Kinder Morgan; FVE: $20

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It looks like crude oil (USO) overproduction will continue. Dashing hopes that any rational behavior would prevail in the energy resource markets, member nations of OPEC February 16 said not that they would cut output but that they would not increase crude-oil output any further, as if the current pace of production isn’t already drowning the world in the black liquid. It turns out the rumor from last week had some basis to it, “Your Hard-Earned Money,” but it didn’t have much substance, in our view, especially since the deal hinges on cooperation from Iran, which remains dedicated to increased production to reach pre-sanction levels. We’re not reading much into the news, as Saudi Arabia, while included in the parties … Read more

Kinder Morgan, MLPs, and the Risk of $0

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Valuentum’s Brian Nelson shares his analytical secrets and tips in an open seminar with Q&A. He’ll outline what he saw in the financials of Kinder Morgan that shocked him in June and what continues to worry him about MLPs today that prompted him to make such a controversial call to help investors avoid the collapse that has subsequently happened. There’s more, but we can’t give it all away in the teaser. Recordings Available — Order today! Select the ‘Buy Now’ button to purchase today.     You will receive a confirmation email with additional details following your registration. ————————- Webinar Background On June 11, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson wrote ‘5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse,” removing … Read more

Market’s Swooning: Bye Bye Energy MLPs, Part II

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Things were ugly again during the trading session February 8, but you were expecting the weakness. There’s nothing surprising, and we continue to wait to scoop up undervalued gems once the tide of this market turns. Topping the news today was the abrupt replacement of the CFO of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE)/Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) coupled with the sell-off in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) on news of a probable bankruptcy, which set the tone among midstream MLPs (AMLP), the index diving aggressively. Followers of Valuentum were far ahead of these developments, “Focus on ETE, Not ETP, Strive for Balance and Stick to the SEC Filings,””Alert: Energy Transfer Equity Is More than 7x Leveraged!,” “Energy MLPs Continue Swoon,” and our body of … Read more

The Bounce in Energy and Potash’s “Surprising” Dividend Cut

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Nothing like Valuentum’s optimistic article last week, January 21, in Barron’s to get the energy markets popping, “Is Kinder Morgan on Road to Recovery,” would you say? Of course, we say that in jest. The equity markets January 28 were defined by optimism that two of the globe’s major energy resource producers, the cartel OPEC and Russia (RSX), would finally come together to alleviate the pain that has been exerted on the price of the black liquid the past 12-24 months with a “meeting.” What we found to be peculiar, however, is that instead of OPEC letting what turned into a “rumor” run, helping to further drive crude oil prices higher, OPEC delegates quickly denied the talk of a potential … Read more

Moody’s Puts Oil & Gas and Mining Sectors on Review

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By Kris Rosemann On January 22, Moody’s placed 120 oil and gas companies (XLE) from across the globe on review for a credit rating downgrade. The list ranges from massive global producers such as Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) and Total (TOT) to nearly 70 US exploration and production and services (“E&P”) companies. It also includes 55 mining companies (XLB) that have been punished by the recent rout in commodity prices. Alcoa (AA), Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale (VALE) are a few notables that made the list for a potential downgrade. The news is not completely unexpected, however, and may likely be a response to several executive teams pointing to legacy (outdated) counterparty/customer ratings as reasons to not be concerned … Read more

Valuentum: Energy MLPs Continue Swoon

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Energy master limited partnerships (AMLP, AMZ) continue to be in a world of hurt as investors reevaluate the sustainability of distribution streams and reassess the fundamentals on a pure traditional free cash flow basis. Many, however, continue to point to uncertainty related to the completion of the deal between Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Williams Partners (WMB) as reason for the sharp drops, but if you recall, both stocks collapsed on the announcement of the deal in October, both stocks collapsed when speculation grew a deal would not be completed earlier this month, and both stocks collapsed when the deal was reiterated last week. Instead, we think the market is focused on tangible long-term fundamentals, free cash flow generation, leverage … Read more

ETP’s Distribution Financially Engineered? Debt Junk-Rated?

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The term “financially-engineered distribution” has increased in prominence as of late, as investors face an unprecedented swoon in the prices of master limited partnerships (AMLP). But what is a financially-engineered distribution and how does it differ from an organically-derived dividend, paid by Microsoft (MSFT) or Apple (AAPL), for example? We’ll cover this, and we’ll also talk about why we think Energy Transfer Partners’ debt is “junk.” We have to look at the SEC filings to help explain. Let’s first start with our definition of a financially-engineered payout. Based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the cash flow statement breaks down into three distinct components: cash flow from operations, cash flow from investing and cash flow from financing activities. Bear with … Read more

Bye Bye Energy MLPs

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West Texas crude oil prices (USO) just broke through $32 per barrel to the downside for the first time since 2003. Share prices of those in the energy complex (XLE) continue to reel, and we maintain our view that the tremendous fallout in energy master limited partnerships (AMLP, AMZ) may not be over. From our perspective, the MLP business model may not survive in its present state, as equity markets continue to “wise up” to the artificial equity pricing paradigm that has centered on the group’s financially-engineered payouts. Without an artificial pricing paradigm to “prop up” their equity prices, for example, the incentive to perpetuate such a business model is substantially reduced. Distribution cuts would then inevitably ensue as a … Read more

The Markets Swoon Again

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The broader US markets (SPY) swooned again January 7 as fears of a slowdown in China (FXI), or worse, a dislocation in Asia’s currency markets, and ongoing concerns about the sustainability of some of the most leveraged “players” in the energy complex took the spotlight again. None of this should be surprising. As we’ve done many a time before with the mortgage REITs, namely American Capital (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY), SeaDrill (SDRL) and the latest with Kinder Morgan (KMI), our members are far ahead of developments. That’s our job – we’re not reporters. We strive to get the right information to our members before it becomes “information,” and using the newsletter portfolios as an indication of our views on capital … Read more

Cash Is King: Microsoft Leading the Charge!

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It’s sometimes difficult for companies to overcome a tarnished reputation, particularly when it comes to a spotty dividend track record, but also as it relates to equity performance. The stock market is often unforgiving at times. Microsoft (MSFT) had long been viewed as “dead money,” or a term that describes an equity that languishes in a small trading range for years. For example, from 2010 to the beginning of 2013 (at the time it was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio), Microsoft had bounced around in the mid-$20s per share. But as the chart below shows, overcoming a tarnished reputation is not impossible; in fact, Microsoft has put its “dead money” reputation behind it, powering past levels even witnessed … Read more