ETE

Dividends Not Safe as Energy Markets Swoon

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We’ve been cautious on the oil and gas markets (XLE, AMLP) for some time, and that includes our October move closer to market neutral on the sector, but we’re still underweight the group. We’ve been saying that crude oil prices are more likely to hit the $20 per barrel level than move significantly higher, and we maintain our view that they may never again return to the $100 per barrel, a level many have grown accustomed to. After all, why should they? Unfortunately, the fallout continues to punish traditional “buy and hold” investors who have been trained to ignore most “news” and may still be holding on the belief of the fallacy of mean reversion, something that we believe cannot … Read more

Master Limited Partnership Model Still At Risk

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson’s concerns regarding the master limited partnership business model became mainstream in June of this year. In his piece, “5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse,” an article that itself may go down in history as one of the most timely pieces of research ever written–in light of Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) eventual collapse–Mr. Nelson said of the MLP space at that time: Most, if not all, MLPs report distributable cash flow (DCF), which does not in the calculation consider growth capex, an important driver behind the generation of increased cash flow from operations in the future. When MLPs report distribution coverage ratios, this particular calculation also backs out growth capex from the equation, instead … Read more

Correction: Understanding the MLP Valuation Conversation

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A correction was performed to the table in this article October 29, 2015, at 7:20pm. How to interpret the changes: In this illustrative example that includes both growth capital spending and a marginal cost of capital of 10%, holders of MLPs will have to wait years before the intrinsic value of the security catches up to the present market price (comparison shown in orange). Said differently, units in this example are significantly overpriced in today’s market. 

Nelson: Time to Consider Buying Kinder Morgan?

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“Buy and hold investing has done more to turn perfectly decent people into the worst sort.” As others are poo-pooing Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) third-quarter report, we wanted to share a few observations. Our $29 per share fair value estimate for the corporate is unchanged, as we note the low end of our fair value range is $23 per share. We’re reiterating our “neutral” view on the company. First, we were beyond pleased to see Executive Chairman Richard Kinder come to terms with emphasizing the fact that Kinder Morgan is not totally immune to commodity price impacts. He said as much in the press release. Though top analysts on Wall Street are well-aware of this (or they should be), there are … Read more

Thank You for the Victory Lap Barron’s!

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For those that saw the reference to our recent article in Barron’s and the unfortunate, derogatory counter-punch by another author, we appreciate the support and congratulations! The Barron’s article highlighting our work was a victory lap on our call on Kinder Morgan, or we think most should have interpreted it as such. The recognition was well-received by existing members and interested new members alike! How to interpret our call on Kinder Morgan >> As many of you know, however, the call on Kinder Morgan has been off the table for some time now. We had recently moved to “neutral” on Kinder Morgan (see here), after shares collapsed from $40 to $29, which is our current fair value estimate of the firm … Read more

Understanding Your MLP’s Financially-Engineered Equity Value

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For background on this topic, please read “5 Reasons Why Kinder Morgan Will Collapse,” and “5 More Reasons Why Kinder Morgan Will Collapse.” In this article, we will synthetically create the equivalent of a master limited partnership (MLP), called iNewCorp with Kinder Morgan’s financial profile, from scratch with effectively no capital at all, with only a strong credit rating. In such an example, we’ll also explain how valuation techniques cannot ignore growth capital in the valuation equation of MLPs or other midstream corporates by pricing them on a multiple of “distributable cash flow” or on the dividend/distribution that follows it. We’ll do so by contemplating the value of a company that has a “distributable cash flow” stream requiring maintenance (and/or … Read more

FAQ: Regarding your article, “Warning: The Master Limited Partnership Business Model May Not Survive…”

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Q: Regarding your article, “Warning: The Master Limited Partnership Business Model May Not Survive,” – what are you basing your comments on financial engineering the dividend on? It seems to me that Energy Transfer Equity has enough free cash flow to cover its dividend with a 1.2x coverage ratio. Am I missing something? A: Thank you for your question. Most master limited partnerships and midstream corporates do not cover their distributions and dividends, respectively, on a traditional free cash flow basis, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending. That means that such payouts are being financed in part, some more than others, from the cash flow from financing section of the cash flow statement, hence the term financially-engineered. … Read more

Warning: The Master Limited Partnership Business Model May Not Survive

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Warren Buffett has famously said that, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” We now know what’s been swimming naked, and it’s the master limited partnership (MLP) business model during the latest downdraft of this energy cycle. A tremendous fall-out may still be ahead for MLPs, unfortunately, as energy markets weaken and as credit markets tighten. We now believe the financial operating structure of the MLP may not survive in its current form, even as we say that most businesses using the MLP model are good ones. Our view continues to be that most master limited partnerships including Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and most midstream corporate business models including Kinder Morgan (KMI) are dependent … Read more

Recent M&A Activity

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Amid the recent market volatility, firms have remained active in M&A. Let’s take a closer look at what companies will be joining forces. DENTSPLY and Sirona to Join Forces DENTSPLY (XRAY) and Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) announced September 15 that they have entered an all-stock merger agreement. The resulting company will be the world’s largest manufacturer of professional dental products and technologies. Under the proposed agreement, Sirona shareholders will receive ~1.8 shares of DENTSPLY for each existing Sirona share. If the transaction receives regulatory and shareholder approval, it is expected to close in the first quarter of 2016, and the combined company expects the merger to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share for both companies’ shareholders in the first … Read more

3 Anomalies Across Pipeline Equities

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Kinder Morgan’s Credit Should Be Junk Status The corporate’s investment-grade credit rating does not add up. On a reported basis, adjusted for impairments, our estimate for Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) leverage is 7 times annualized first-half EBITDA, nearly a half turn greater than that of perhaps its closest peer Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), which is rated Ba2/BB/BB (Stable) by the credit rating agencies. That’s two full notches below the lowest level of investment grade and Kinder Morgan’s credit rating, despite Kinder Morgan’s dividend obligations being $350 million more during the first half of this year alone (~$750 million annualized) relative to Energy Transfer Equity, and its absolute level of debt standing above any other on this list. Kinder Morgan’s plans to … Read more