DPM

Is OPEC For Real This Time?

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By Kris Rosemann On September 28, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut crude oil production levels for the first time since 2008. The cartel reportedly agreed to limit production of member nations to a range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day (bpd) while leaders met at the International Energy Forum in Algiers, Algeria. As would be expected following such news, the price of crude oil has bounced, bringing market sentiment surrounding energy-related stocks higher along with it. The proposed production could be a reduction of up to 750,000 bpd from OPEC production levels in the month of August, but how the group of nations will reach such a production cut has yet to … Read more

Distributing Truth on MLPs

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By Kris Rosemann The recent merger break-up fiasco at Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Williams Companies (WMB) has put the master limited partnership (MLP) conversation back into the spotlight, after the two entities were unable to finalize a merger that had been announced in fall 2015 and would have created the largest pipeline company in the US. The deal between Energy Transfer Equity and Williams was officially terminated by Energy Transfer Equity June 29 after a court ruled that the firm was legally able to walk away from the agreement when it was unable to deliver an opinion on the tax treatment of the transaction that was required by June 28. Williams has since stated that it will seek monetary … Read more

ETE Down 70%; IBM Poor Quality, Netflix Begins to Implode

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Shown above: Energy Transfer Equity’s recent share price performance. A lot of investors depend on us for our energy research. We’ve been busy publishing on the website, and we can’t possibly send out all of our research via email, so please come visit. Many are aware of our take in any case: the energy master limited partnership (AMLP, AMZ) isn’t going away tomorrow, but it may not last over the long haul. This is nothing new. We’ve been saying this since the peak in energy MLP share prices, which just so happened to coincide with Energy Transfer Equity’s (ETE) heights in the mid-$30s. Our readers understand that we’re taking the long view with MLPs when we talk about business models … Read more

Valuentum: Still Bullish on Kinder Morgan Since Mid-Teens

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“Valuentum called the collapse in Kinder Morgan’s shares from $40 per share to the low-teens, and now we have called the rebound to $20 from the low-teens. Though this action may not fit into the playbook of the “buy and hold” investor, the idea of “selling” overpriced stocks that are going down and “buying” overpriced stocks that are going up is a core part of our methodology.” By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m still getting emails about how wrong we were about our calls on Kinder Morgan (KMI). Will they ever stop? We’re doing our best to relieve investors of the shackles of “buy and hold” thinking, which is separate, distinct and runs counter to investing with a focus on long-term … Read more

Recent Add Cracker Barrel Surges Ahead; BHP Cuts

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February 23 was met with intense selling as investors digested news that the crude oil (USO) markets won’t become rational anytime soon. As we had outlined in our opening piece to the Best Ideas Newsletter a few days ago, “,” Saudi Arabia is not going to back down, and the Oil Minister of the member nation of OPEC even went so far as to say he “welcomes new additional supplies,” suggesting that the global glut of crude oil will continue for the foreseeable future. Commodity-oriented equities led the selling pressure. For those that have been reading our work for the past several months, none of this is new “news.” We’ve been warning about the risk for some time, and we … Read more

ETP’s Distribution Financially Engineered? Debt Junk-Rated?

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The term “financially-engineered distribution” has increased in prominence as of late, as investors face an unprecedented swoon in the prices of master limited partnerships (AMLP). But what is a financially-engineered distribution and how does it differ from an organically-derived dividend, paid by Microsoft (MSFT) or Apple (AAPL), for example? We’ll cover this, and we’ll also talk about why we think Energy Transfer Partners’ debt is “junk.” We have to look at the SEC filings to help explain. Let’s first start with our definition of a financially-engineered payout. Based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the cash flow statement breaks down into three distinct components: cash flow from operations, cash flow from investing and cash flow from financing activities. Bear with … Read more

FAQ: Help Me Understand Your Research on MLPs

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FAQ: It looks like your fair value estimates and your adjusted Dividend Cushion ratios aren’t bad. What gives? A: Thank you for your question. The Valuentum process rests on uncovering undervalued companies that are trading at a discount to intrinsic value, but also ones that are supported by the market via strong technical and momentum indicators. The latter consideration is absent from most, if not all of the energy sector, including MLPs. MLPs themselves, however, have a nuanced valuation adjustment in our process that leads us to have significantly less conviction than in other areas. Pasted below is a slide deck that mentions that adjustment (i.e. we exclude growth capex, even though we feel that it is an integral part of … Read more

This MLP’s Distribution Is At Serious Risk

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A version of this article was originally published on November 16. The Keystone XL pipeline has been perhaps the most talked about issue surrounding midstream operators in recent years. The rejection of the proposed pipeline by the US government has brought increased attention and bravado to pipeline opponents, while also highlighting the increased risks associated with midstream entities. Specifically, pipeline opponents are now turning their attention to Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) Trans Mountain pipeline in southern Canada. Environmental advocates are pushing for a similar result that was realized along the northern Pacific coast of Canada, where the Canadian government will ban crude oil tankers, effectively ending the usefulness of Enbridge’s (ENB) Northern Gateway pipeline. These developments are both damaging to pipeline … Read more

Dividends Not Safe as Energy Markets Swoon

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We’ve been cautious on the oil and gas markets (XLE, AMLP) for some time, and that includes our October move closer to market neutral on the sector, but we’re still underweight the group. We’ve been saying that crude oil prices are more likely to hit the $20 per barrel level than move significantly higher, and we maintain our view that they may never again return to the $100 per barrel, a level many have grown accustomed to. After all, why should they? Unfortunately, the fallout continues to punish traditional “buy and hold” investors who have been trained to ignore most “news” and may still be holding on the belief of the fallacy of mean reversion, something that we believe cannot … Read more