DIS

Strong Holiday Sales Boost Toy Makers

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Between the rise of video games and the popularity of cell phones and tablets among children, one might expect the US toy industry to be experiencing a robust decline. However, according to NPD, holiday sales were strong enough to propel the toy market to $16.5 billion in sales during 2012, down just $100 million compared to 2011. The report claims dollar sales and unit sales surged 18% and 10%, respectively, during the final two weeks of December, driving sales 1.3% higher year-over-year for the busiest month of the year. Leapfrog (LF), which focuses primarily on educational toys, topped the ‘best-selling toy list’ with 4 out of the 10 best sellers as well as 3 out of the top 4 (including the … Read more

Fiscal Cliff Averted; Aerospace Rallying

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After a volatile December, two of our favorite aerospace names, Astronics (click ticker for report: ) and EDAC Technologies (click ticker for report: ), are rallying significantly after a deal was finally reached to avert the fiscal cliff. Precision Castparts (click ticker for report: ), which had steadily moved higher during the fiscal-cliff ordeal thanks to optimism surrounding its planned acquisition of Titanium Metals (TIE), is also seeing strength today. We assumed both profit taking and overblown fears of defense cuts were the culprit behind the increased volatility, and it seems as though that could be the case. We continue to see substantial upside at these firms thanks to the massive, multi-year commercial aerospace backlogs of the large airframe makers. Our Best Ideas portfolio … Read more

You Are Ahead of the News As a Valuentum Member

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Remember When We Said Economic Prognosticators Were Off Their Rockers? From the September 2012 edition of our Best Ideas Newsletter (see page 2), released September 15, 2012: “Could you imagine if you had listened to bond-king Bill Gross (please note he is not the equity king), Marc Faber (author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report) or the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which called for a recession in September 2011 – some 30% in the S&P 500 ago (yes, 30%!). Aside from being incorrect, bearish economic prognosticators fully admit that their expectations have little to do with what may happen to the equity markets in the future (as Bernanke’s unlimited QE has shown). Still, such admissions do not stop … Read more

FAQ: Why Doesn’t the ‘Percentage Undervalued/Overvalued’ Match Up to the Actual Discount/Premium to Valuentum’s Fair Value Estimate of the Company?

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We view the intrinsic value of a firm as a range, not a single point estimate. So instead of us saying that a company is worth exactly $55 per share, for example, instead we’d say it is worth between $50 (low end) and $60 per share (high end) — think of this range as our margin of safety. We use a margin of safety due to the inherent uncertainty of predicting with absolute precision a firm’s future free cash flow stream — a firm’s future free cash flows determine our estimate of the company’s intrinsic value, and the future is not known yet. As a result, the ‘percentage undervalued/overvalued’ (as shown on our 16-page reports) is calculated by comparing the firm’s current price with the … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

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At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more

More Special Dividends

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As we previously mentioned, special dividends are “in” this holiday season, as a few more firms declared one-time dividends. Louisiana-based bank Teche Holding Company (TSH) announced that it will pay out its regular quarterly dividend of $0.365 per share with an additional payment of the same amount. However, the firm intends to skip its dividend in the first quarter of 2013, and it was careful not to commit to resuming its dividend in the second quarter, though it says it is likely to resume. Teche is a pretty obscure bank with a market capitalization under $100 million, but the situation underscores the uncertainty felt by so many firms at the current juncture. Retailer Stein Mart (SMRT) followed suit, declaring a … Read more

Disney Paints a Cloudy Picture for 2013

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Media giant Disney (click ticker for report: ) reported solid fiscal year 2012 fourth quarter results Thursday afternoon. The company saw revenue jump 3% year-over-year to $10.8 billion, a tad below consensus expectations. Earnings were in-line with expectations, increasing 17% year-over-year to $0.68 per share. Free cash flow, one of our favorite metrics when evaluating a company, fell nearly in half during the period to $602 million, though the decline reflected accounting timing more than any broader weakness. Fiscal year 2012 free cash flow jumped 22% year-over-year to $4.2 billion—enough to pay for the Lucasfilm deal on its own. Despite the hiccup in the current period, we expect free cash flow trends to remain strong at the media giant. On … Read more

Disney Steals Lucasfilms

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Tuesday afternoon, entertainment giant Disney (click ticker for report: ) purchased Lucasfilms and all associated assets from legendary film maker George Lucas for $4.05 billion—half in cash, half in 40 million newly minted shares of Disney stock. We can’t imagine the deal was anything but a steal for Disney, which now owns Lucas’ catalog of films, which includes six Star Wars movies, as well as the Indiana Jones franchise. Disney also acquires all licensing revenue, which amounts to over $200 million in 2012 alone. This doesn’t even account for successful businesses Skywalker Sound, LucasArts (video games), and Industrial Light & Magic. Though video games might not look very strong give the failure of EA’s (click ticker for report: ) Knights … Read more