CURV

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong

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Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seemingly have worked out a plan for Apple to keep advertising on the Twitter platform after what looked to be a temporary pause by the iPhone maker. Though the news is immaterial to our thesis on Apple in any respect, it was good to see the two tech giants work whatever differences they had out. Certainly, a fallout between Musk and Cook would not be a good thing for the tech sector and innovation, more broadly, as the two wield large influences across Silicon … Read more

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead

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Image Source: Valuentum “Nearly all of the slowdown was driven by our discretionary categories, Apparel, Home and Hardlines, as our guests became increasingly cautious in their spending in those categories at both Target and throughout the industry more broadly. So far in the month of November, trends have been largely consistent with what we were seeing at the end of October, in terms of our comp trends, the mix of sales between frequency and discretionary businesses and the focus on promotions by our guests.” – Target’s 3Q Conference Call By Brian Nelson, CFA After Walmart (WMT) reported its third-quarter earnings November 15, “Walmart Is Back on Track; Markets Looking Healthier,” we thought things were looking a bit better across the … Read more

Best Idea Dollar General Outperforms

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Image Shown: Dollar General Corporation outperformed during its latest earnings update. Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – 10-Q SEC filing covering the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 By Callum Turcan On August 25, Dollar General Corporation (DG) reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended July 29, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The discount retailer also raised its full year guidance for fiscal 2022 in conjunction with its latest earnings update after previously raising its full year guidance during its fiscal first quarter earnings report, which we covered in this article here. We include Dollar General as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the high end of our fair value estimate range … Read more

Best Idea Dollar General Beats Consensus Estimates and Raises Guidance in the Face of Substantial Headwinds

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Image Shown: Dollar General Corporation’s GAAP net sales rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 on a year-over-year basis due to growth in its net store count. Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – May 2022 8-K SEC Filing  By Callum Turcan On May 26, Dollar General Corporation (DG) reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended April 29, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Even in the face of major supply chain issues and inflationary headwinds, Dollar General modestly increased its net sales and same-store sales growth guidance for fiscal 2022 and maintained its other forecasts. We include Dollar General in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as we are big fans of its resilient business model, strong cash flow … Read more

Best Idea Dollar General Roaring Higher

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Image Shown: We like the niche Dollar General Corporation has carved out for itself in the competitive discount retail industry. Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – Fiscal 2021 Annual Report By Callum Turcan Though the discount store retail industry is incredibly competitive, we like the niche that Dollar General Corp (DG) has carved out for itself by targeting towns and cities in the U.S. with populations of 20,000 or less. These are regions where e-commerce economics are not attractive due to hefty fulfillment costs, and often are underserved in terms of shopping options. Dollar General operates over 18,100 stores across 46 U.S. states and is included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We continue to be big … Read more

Best Idea Dollar General Announces Plans to Go International

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Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – Fiscal 2020 Annual Report By Callum Turcan On December 2, Dollar General Corporation (DG) reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 29, 2021) that matched consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The discount retailer also once again raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2021, which we will cover in just a moment. For reference, please note that Dollar General’s fiscal years end in late-January or early-February. We will start off by stressing that Dollar General put up banner performance in fiscal 2020 (period ended January 29, 2021) when its same-store sales boomed higher by over 16% and its GAAP net revenues grew by almost 22% on an annual basis. … Read more

Qurate Retail Faces Difficult Turnaround Process

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Image Source: Qurate Retail Inc – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation Executive Summary: Qurate Retail Inc is home to several well-known retail brands including QVC and HSN that operate television networks and online marketplaces that sell curated products. The company is contending with several exogenous shocks such as inflationary pressures and supply chain hurdles, while customer engagement levels are on the decline after growing during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Qurate Retail has a massive net debt load and sizable annual financing obligations, and its margins have deteriorated substantially of late. Due to its complex share structure and management organization, weak financial position, and lackluster outlook, we are not interested in Qurate Retail’s common or preferred … Read more