CEN

2022 Oil & Gas Market Update: “The Outlook for Crude Oil Prices Remains Quite Bullish”

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Transcript Hello, this is Callum Turcan, Associate Director of Research at Valuentum Securities. WTI and Brent have pulled back moderately from recent highs, though near-term futures remain just above $100 per barrel which is well above levels seen last year. As of early July, both WTI and Brent are in backwardation, meaning spot prices are trading at a higher price than later dated future contracts. In other words, the trajectory of future crude oil prices is expected to have a downward slope. Please note that backwardation does not mean that things are going to rapidly deteriorate for the global energy complex, as this dynamic is due to global oil inventories steadily declining over the past two years or so. Backwardation … Read more

The Free Cash Flow Shortfall in the Master Limited Partnership Space

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With the recent acceleration of master limited partnership simplification transactions, we find it appropriate to revisit the internally-generated cash flow shortfall present throughout much of the space. The table provides a breakdown of traditional free cash flow (cash from operating activities less all capital spending) relative to distributions paid, as well as a measure of the elevated financial leverage often found within the group. In case you missed it, “Nearly 60 Distribution Cuts Later, We Maintain Our View on the Hazards of the MLP Business Model.” By Kris Rosemann We think it is worth noting that the two entities at the top of this list in terms of traditional free cash flow coverage of distributions paid have significantly reduced their … Read more

Master Limited Partnership Simplifications on the Rise

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  With the announcement of three separate master limited partnership simplification transactions on May 17 alone, we must revisit our thesis that the business structure may not be in it for the long haul. By Kris Rosemann At Valuentum, we continue to believe the master limited partnership (MLP) business model is at risk over the long haul, and recent news from the space only seems to support the notion that the MLP model we once knew may be fading more quickly than some had expected. If there is nothing inherently wrong with the structure of MLPs, then the rate at which simplification transactions are occurring would certainly be an alarming development, but we continue to point to factors such as … Read more

Nearly 60 Distribution Cuts Later, We Maintain Our View on the Hazards of the MLP Business Model

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Image Source: Brian Cantoni Valuentum has been highlighting the inherent risks associated with the master limited partnership (MLP) structure for some time now, but we are not alone in acknowledging the limited sustainability of such structures. Internal simplification transactions may only become more common moving forward as management teams seek to optimize the structure of their entities. Readers should continue to cast a skeptical eye on this business model. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Quite possibly, Valuentum made the “call of the century” when it outlined its warning on MLPs in June 2015, embedded in its Kinder Morgan (KMI) “call,” and more explicitly in September 2015, “Why the MLP Business Model May Be a Goner.” There was a … Read more

Objectivity in Analysis and the MLP Enigma

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how financial statement analysis keeps analysts objective. He also goes into how the distribution yields of MLPs may not reflect underlying business dynamics. Nelson also explains an inconsistency in the use of financing that supports the idea that MLPs are using external capital market issuances to fund distributions. Running time: ~15 minutes.

MLP Speak: A Critique of Distributable Cash Flow

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–> Handout 1: Pitfalls of Distribution Yield Analysis (pdf) –> Handout 2: Linking P/DCF to Enterprise Free Cash Flow Valuation (pdf) Let’s talk about a controversial metric that is used in master limited partnership (MLP) reporting. Just how useful is it, and should it be allowed? By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been a few years since the fallout in the prices of most master limited partnerships (AMLP), but to me, it still feels like yesterday. We continue to have many concerns about the longevity of the business models of MLPs, and we maintain our view that the operating structure will be challenged over the long haul. New equity and debt funding (issuance) continues to, in part, fuel the distributions of most MLPs, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 13

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 13. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (AEF): now $0.054 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.045. Acushnet Holdings (GOLF): now $0.155 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.140. AGNC INVT 1000 DR REP 1 SRS F PRF (AGNCP): now $0.27222 per share quarterly dividend. Altius Minerals (ATUSF): now CAD 0.05 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.04. American Tower (AMT): now $1.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.01. … Read more