AMZ

5 Years Later – #ThrowbackThursday on MLPs

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Image: Since Valuentum warned against the significant risks of the MLP business model June 11, 2015, on a price basis, the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) has fallen by more than 65%, while the S&P 500 has surged nearly 50%. There have been dozens and dozens of explicit (or phantom) MLP distribution cuts since we released our thesis 5 years ago to this day, and many MLPs have subsequently simplified their business models, rolling up into C-corps, as we predicted. By Brian Nelson, CFA 5 years ago, on June 11, 2015, Valuentum released its bearish case on Kinder Morgan (KMI) and the MLPs, a view that was highlighted on Barron’s.com and debated for months thereafter on various social media and website … Read more

MLP Speak: A Critique of Distributable Cash Flow

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–> Handout 1: Pitfalls of Distribution Yield Analysis (pdf) –> Handout 2: Linking P/DCF to Enterprise Free Cash Flow Valuation (pdf) Let’s talk about a controversial metric that is used in master limited partnership (MLP) reporting. Just how useful is it, and should it be allowed? By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been a few years since the fallout in the prices of most master limited partnerships (AMLP), but to me, it still feels like yesterday. We continue to have many concerns about the longevity of the business models of MLPs, and we maintain our view that the operating structure will be challenged over the long haul. New equity and debt funding (issuance) continues to, in part, fuel the distributions of most MLPs, … Read more

Taxes and the Distressed MLP Investor

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Image show above: Performance of the Alerian MLP ETF. “Perhaps the worst thing about MLPs is that investors can spend more time doing and thinking about tax-related items than actually evaluating the businesses of the underlying entities. This could result in poor investment decisions.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA What a sensitive topic for many… Our team presented at the Chicago chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) last weekend. It is always an honor and a privilege to have the opportunity to present to such wonderful people! They ask so many great questions. (By the way, I’m working on my schedule for 2017, so if you’d like our team to speak on a topic … Read more

Valuentum Applauds SEC’s Move To Evaluate Non-GAAP Reporting

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  Image Source: SEC By Brian Nelson, CFA Too many investors have been hurt. Management teams want to present their results the best way they can within the boundaries of the law, to bolster their holdings. Some analysts want to “pitch” their stocks in the most optimistic light possible, to preserve their jobs. The consumers of such research want the future to always be bright, so they want to believe the “good news.” The result: there are now very few places to find objective, unbiased research and analysis. It therefore has become more important for companies to provide the most accurate and helpful information possible, and non-GAAP earnings presentation isn’t it — in fact, it has gotten way out of whack. … Read more

The Market – On Its Head

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The sector/theme returns have almost been turned on their head as some of the worst performers in the first few weeks of 2016, namely materials (XLB), energy MLPs (AMLP, AMZ), and energy (XLE), have transformed into leaders through the latest data update, April 21. As we outlined in “Alerts: Adding More High-Quality Exposure, (April 2016)” the dividend “track record” growth craze is on, in our view, and yield-rich exposures from utilities (XLU) to the dividend-growth focus itself (SDY) have rallied more than 9% in the year thus far. The metals gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have also proved to be good trades out of the gates thus far in 2016, up ~18% and 23%, respectively, though … Read more

ETE Down 70%; IBM Poor Quality, Netflix Begins to Implode

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Shown above: Energy Transfer Equity’s recent share price performance. A lot of investors depend on us for our energy research. We’ve been busy publishing on the website, and we can’t possibly send out all of our research via email, so please come visit. Many are aware of our take in any case: the energy master limited partnership (AMLP, AMZ) isn’t going away tomorrow, but it may not last over the long haul. This is nothing new. We’ve been saying this since the peak in energy MLP share prices, which just so happened to coincide with Energy Transfer Equity’s (ETE) heights in the mid-$30s. Our readers understand that we’re taking the long view with MLPs when we talk about business models … Read more

You Can Change Your Mind!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA It looks like the energy master limited partnership (AMLP, AMZ) space has been catching a bid the past few days. It’s so important, however, to keep things in perspective, and the best way to do so is to look at an intermediate-term chart of the group, which remains under considerable stress, “Bye Bye Energy MLPs, Part II (Jan 2016)” The market wants some of the most beaten down equities to rally, including Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), which have fallen devastatingly from their respective peaks of $35 and near-$70 per share, respectively. If you’re not looking at charts, you’re leaving a lot of free information on the table. Energy master limited partnerships, … Read more

Kinder Morgan, MLPs, and the Risk of $0

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Valuentum’s Brian Nelson shares his analytical secrets and tips in an open seminar with Q&A. He’ll outline what he saw in the financials of Kinder Morgan that shocked him in June and what continues to worry him about MLPs today that prompted him to make such a controversial call to help investors avoid the collapse that has subsequently happened. There’s more, but we can’t give it all away in the teaser. Recordings Available — Order today! Select the ‘Buy Now’ button to purchase today.     You will receive a confirmation email with additional details following your registration. ————————- Webinar Background On June 11, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson wrote ‘5 Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan’s Shares Will Collapse,” removing … Read more

Giddy Up – It’s Earnings Season!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA During the trading session January 27, Apple (AAPL) failed to turn the tide of a disappointing fiscal 2016 first-quarter report (calendar fourth-quarter), “Apple Will Go Lower…And It Will Be ‘Forced’ Into Acquisitions,” and coupled with a Fed statement, where the Committee left interest rates unchanged, as expected, many market observers read between the lines and hit the sell button. On the basis of some of the concerns we’ve outlined, “Not Doom and Gloom – But Just Cautious,” we can completely understand the hesitancy by participants to stay fully exposed to this tumultuous equity market. In many ways, that the Fed has hit the brakes just a few weeks after the long-anticipated rate hike means the global … Read more

What’s Working in Today’s Market?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As emerging markets around the world suffer from commodity-price-led economic weakness, capital continues to find a safe-haven in US government bonds (TLT, TBT), but for those equity-oriented funds that mandate a fully-invested status, not something we’re particularly advocates of, assets within US equities have favored “lower-beta” utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) sectors while cyclically-dependent and credit-levered sectors such as the financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) have suffered thus far in 2016. The industrials (XLI) and energy (XLE) sectors have also encountered higher-than-normal selling pressure in the first few weeks of the New Year, as investors evaluate the global economic landscape and what a prolonged period of low energy prices may mean for the lowest quality … Read more