Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

May 23, 2023

Call Me Unconcerned
Image: Large cap growth has dominated returns the past five years. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to have significant exposure to this area. We’re taking it slow this time of year. With the area of large cap growth nearly doubling since the beginning of 2018, trouncing the return of the broader market, dividend growth strategies, the area of small cap value and general REIT indices, it’s just hard to find much wrong with staying pat. The proliferation of artificial intelligence will likely propel big cap tech and large cap growth to new highs, while small cap value may continue to be weighed down by the banks--and dividend-oriented strategies may face continued pressure from rising interest rates and tired real estate markets. Things were a bit murky during 2022, but thanks for keeping the faith.

May 22, 2023

Nice! -- NASDAQ-100 Follows Through on Breakout
Image: NASDAQ-100 breaks through August 2022 resistance.

Apr 27, 2022

Microsoft Soars, Strong Revenue Growth Continues Unabated
Image Shown: Microsoft Corporation put up a solid fiscal third quarter earnings report and we continue to be big fans of the name. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Power Point Earnings Presentation Covering the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022. On April 26, Microsoft Corp reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended March 31, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of MSFT jumped higher by ~4%-5% in afterhours trading on April 26 as investors cheered on the good news and its promising near term outlook. Microsoft’s cloud-oriented products and services were a bright spot in the fiscal third quarter and underpinned its impressive pricing power. The firm was able to stay ahead of inflationary pressures and maintain its strong margins while growing its revenues. We include shares of MSFT as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Our fair value estimate for Microsoft sits at $332 per share, well above where Microsoft is trading at as of this writing, indicating that the company has substantial capital appreciation upside. Additionally, we view Microsoft’s dividend growth trajectory quite favorably due to its rock-solid financial position, bright longer-term growth outlook that is underpinned by secular tailwinds and recent acquisition activity, its pricing power, fortress-like balance sheet, and ability to generate sizable free cash flows in almost any operating environment. Shares of MSFT yield ~0.9% as of this writing.

Mar 9, 2022

Salesforce Has Room to Run
Image Source: Salesforce Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Salesforce offers software that assists its customers with marketing, customer service, sales, digital commerce, business development, collaboration, analytics, recruitment, and numerous other activities. These offerings aim to improve workplace productivity by streamlining certain functions and automating others. Salesforce provides a comprehensive suite of software solutions designed for businesses and government entities across its Customer 360 platform, while using analytics and AI to discover insights to further generate value for its customers. Over the two-plus decades Salesforce has been operating, the company has grown into a tech powerhouse by investing heavily in the business and continuously pursuing major acquisitions. Some of Salesforce’s bigger deals (by enterprise value) include acquiring Slack for $27.7 billion in a cash-and-stock deal that closed in July 2021, and buying Tableau for $15.7 billion through an all-stock deal that closed in August 2019. Let's dig a bit deeper into this idea.

Dec 21, 2021

Adobe Signals Near Term Growth Rate Slowing Down, Longer Term Outlook Still Quite Bright
Image Source: Adobe Inc – December 2021 Financial Analysts Meeting IR Presentation. On December 16, Adobe reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended December 3, 2021) that modestly beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, shares of ADBE plummeted in the wake of its latest earnings report as management signaled that the firm’s near term growth rate would slow down in fiscal 2022 versus levels seen in fiscal 2021. Investors were apparently hoping for more, though in our view, Adobe’s longer term growth outlook is still quite bright. Our fair value estimate sits at $576 per share of Adobe.

Dec 10, 2021

What Really Is the ”S” in ESG Investing
Image: The Valuentum Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scoring System shows how “Social” considerations are analyzed. Social considerations tend to ebb and flow and reflect the values of society. Renewed interest in diversity, inclusion, and equity, for example, have made these areas a greater focus for companies and investors. As we have evolved as a society over decades and generations, the types of social considerations that may have primacy will change over time, so it’s important to make sure social considerations are just one part of your research. In addition to looking at how a company scores on the Valuentum ESG rating system and how it aligns with your own values, be sure to also look at whether such an idea is in the simulated newsletter portfolios, how it rates on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), its Dividend Cushion ratio for dividend-paying stocks, and much more. It’s extremely important to reward those companies doing the social good, but equity prices and returns will always be driven in part by a company’s cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow.

Nov 3, 2021

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 24, 2021

Cisco Systems’ Growth Outlook Continues to Improve
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – 2021 Investor Day Event Presentation. Things at Cisco Systems are beginning to turn around and management made sure to highlight the company’s improving outlook during its big Investor Day event held on September 15. We include Cisco Systems as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios as the firm has a fortress-like balance sheet (i.e., large net cash position), tremendous free cash flow generating abilities, and its growth outlook has improved immensely since contending with serious headwinds from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.6% as of this writing.

Aug 19, 2021

Cisco Systems Continues to Recover; Growth Outlook Quite Promising
Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Presentation. On August 18, Cisco Systems reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended July 31, 2021) that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Cisco Systems also offered guidance for both the first quarter of fiscal 2022 along with full-year guidance for fiscal 2022, breaking with tradition (usually the company does not offer full fiscal year forecasts). Cisco Systems is included as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We continue to be huge fans of Cisco Systems, and shares of CSCO initially moved significantly higher during the morning trading hours on August 19.