Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 20, 2023

Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout
Image Source: Mike Mozart. If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive contractionary monetary policy, we believe the market may start to view the existing levels of “high” near-term interest rates as dry powder for the Fed to stimulate the economy in the future, if or when it’s needed. The Fed has now built up a very nice insurance policy with little damage done to the U.S. stock market, and we think equities, particularly the stylistic area of large cap growth, may continue to reward investors as such a positive view is eventually factored in. New highs may once again be in the cards, and we remain bullish on the equity markets today, despite the ominous volatility experienced the past 20+ months.

Jan 15, 2023

Is It Time To Turn Bullish? Inflation Tamed?
The link to download the January 2023 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter is in this article!

Jan 11, 2023

Don't Let "Them" Spin the Narrative
Here’s the bottom line: The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has failed both during the COVID-19 crisis as well as during 2022, when diversification was needed most. The strongest performers during 2022 were among the weakest performers in the years prior, and their 5-year returns still pale in comparison to those of big cap tech and large cap growth during the past five years. Small cap value, of which factor investing has been built on top of, continues to trail most other stylistic areas during the past five years. We’re staying the course. Though we expect continued tough sledding during the first quarter of 2023, we think the year will offer an incredible opportunity for investors to dollar cost average into what could be yet another strong decade of returns for stocks!

Jun 18, 2022

The Stock Market Is Nearing Technical Support Levels
Image: This year has been a difficult one for equity investors, but the selling pressure that has been common in the markets may start to slow as broader indices such as the S&P 500 begin to approach technical support levels. On the S&P 500, we think there is substantial technical support in the 3,200-3,500 range, which to us suggests that further near-term downside may be limited. The S&P 500 closed at 3,674.84 on Friday, June 17, and we think fair value is much higher. What might be a fair value for the S&P 500 today? Well, throwing the 10-year S&P 500 average multiple of 16.9x on 2023 expected earnings numbers of 251.76 gets to a 4,255 mark on the S&P 500, which is above the last closing level of 3,674.84 for the index. Benchmark Treasury rates remain low relative to history, and balance sheets of many S&P 500 companies are overflowing with net cash, supporting such a multiple, too. All told, investors might expect the stock market to hit technical support levels on the S&P 500 of 3,200-3,500 in the near term, but from where we stand, stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration over the long haul.

Nov 28, 2021

Bitcoin, U.S. Large Cap Growth, and Technology Continue to Dominate Returns
Image source: Seeking Alpha, retrieved November 28. Bitcoin (GBTC), Technology (XLK), U.S. Large Cap Growth (SCHG), Russell 1000 Growth (IWF), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) have dominated returns the past 5 years. U.S. MLPs (AMLP), Crude Oil (USO), Energy (XLE), Chinese Stocks (FXI), and various bond ETFs (JNK), (AGG), (MUB) have trailed.

Aug 7, 2021

Valuentum Weekly
Image: Bitcoin, technology and large cap growth have led the pack the past 5 years while pipeline MLPs, crude oil and energy stocks have fallen way behind. Large cap growth > small cap value. Bonds, non-US stocks continue to lag. The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever!

Jul 30, 2020

Excerpt from ‘Value Trap’ 2nd Edition: MPT Sounds a Lot Like "Empty"
The second edition of President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's book 'Value Trap' will be released in the coming weeks. Here is a short excerpt to whet your appetite.

Feb 7, 2020

Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths
Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC.