Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 12, 2021

ALERT: We’re Still Bullish! Some Portfolio Tweaks
Trust you’re doing great, and hope you are enjoying your membership to Valuentum! We’ve received a number of questions from members during the past several weeks, and we’d like to address them briefly in this note. We will write a follow-up note in the coming days that goes into our broader outlook for 2021 and beyond. However, we want to get these takeaways to you as soon as possible, as our inboxes have been overflowing. If you haven’t read our market/analysis recap for the year 2020, please do so.

Oct 15, 2020

Johnson & Johnson Once Again Raises Guidance
Image Shown: An overview of Johnson & Johnson’s financial performance during the third quarter of fiscal 2020. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 13, Johnson & Johnson reported third quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended September 27, 2020) that beat consensus non-GAAP EPS estimates and consensus GAAP revenue estimates, though its GAAP EPS fell short of consensus estimates likely due to turbulence created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Johnson & Johnson’s GAAP revenues were up 2% year-over-year last fiscal quarter while its GAAP gross margin stayed broadly flat at 66.9%. A sharp reduction in other expenses resulted in Johnson & Johnson’s GAAP net income more than doubling year-over-year in the fiscal third quarter. The company once again raised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2020 (boosting both its top- and bottom-line forecasts) during its latest earnings report, just as it did back during its fiscal second quarter earnings report. Stronger than expected performance at Johnson & Johnson’s ‘Medical Devices’ business operating segment was largely responsible for the guidance increase according to management commentary during the firm’s latest earnings call. We continue to include shares of Johnson & Johnson in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios.

Sep 26, 2020

Update on Johnson & Johnson
Image Shown: An overview of Johnson & Johnson’s expectations for fiscal 2021 provided during its second quarter of fiscal 2020 earnings report. We continue to like shares of Johnson & Johnson as a top-weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. Johnson & Johnson is a top-weighted holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and we continue to be big fans of the healthcare and consumer staples giant. The company recently published some key updates that we wanted to draw our members’ attention towards. Before we begin, please note that Johnson & Johnson is near the front of the pack when it comes to developing a potential coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine. Should Johnson & Johnson prove successful, global health authorities would be better able to combat the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sep 18, 2020

Outperformance of Valuentum's COVID-19 Ideas
Image: Valuentum's COVID-19 ideas. Hypothetical returns are calculated on a price basis. To my amazement, the equal-weighted hypothetical returns of our top 10 COVID-19 ideas not only exceeded the market return over the simulated measurement period by a huge margin, but because of the impeccable timing of their release, they also did better than the returns of a backfilled index from the start of the year that--get this--was filled with stocks that in April were already "outperforming the S&P 500 since the start of 2020." I sincerely hope this provides some perspective of just how awesome our research and idea generation has been this year. If I had a mic, I would drop it!

Sep 3, 2020

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years
Image Source: http://www.epictop10.com/. "When I left as director in the equity and credit department at Morningstar in 2011, I thought I knew a whole heck of a lot about investing. I felt like I was one in the top 5-10 in the world as it relates to the category of practical knowledge of enterprise valuation (maybe include Koller at McKinsey, Mauboussin at Counterpoint, and Damadoran at Stern on this list). After all, I oversaw the valuation infrastructure of a department that used the process extensively, and the firm was among just a few that used enterprise valuation systematically. Then, at Valuentum, our small team would go on to build/update 20,000+ more enterprise valuation models. There can always be someone else out there, of course, but I don't think anybody has worked within the DCF model as much as I have across so many different companies. That said, through the past near-10 years managing Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios, I've also learned a number of things to become an even better portfolio manager." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Aug 23, 2020

Latest Stock Report Updates
Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.

Jul 21, 2020

Johnson & Johnson Beats Estimates and Raises Guidance
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 16, Johnson & Johnson reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Most importantly, Johnson & Johnson increased its full-year guidance for 2020 as the firm is well-prepared to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, in our view. We continue to like shares of JNJ in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. As of this writing, shares of JNJ yield ~2.7%.

Jun 18, 2020

Recent Events Concerning Johnson & Johnson
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – First Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. We include Johnson & Johnson as a top-weighted holding in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and as a medium-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The firm’s Dividend Cushion ratio sits at a solid 2.1 and please note that this forward-looking dividend coverage ratio factors in our expectations that Johnson & Johnson will grow its per share dividend by mid-single-digits annually over the coming years. Johnson & Johnson earns a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating and an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Growth rating, with shares of JNJ yielding ~2.8% as of this writing. In our view, Johnson & Johnson’s strong balance sheet and high quality cash flow profile provide it with the financial strength to ride out the storm created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic with its current dividend policy and financials intact.

Jun 16, 2020

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks
Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. In addition to unlimited quantitative easing and "whatever it takes, squared" Fed policy, today, June 16, the Trump administration announced that it is weighing a $1 trillion stimulus bill to help support the economy. While uncertainties remain regarding specifics of the bill (it might include state assistance, extension of unemployment benefits, etc.), the move is consistent with the outsize spending we expect to further bolster the bull case, "ICYMI -- Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." We continue to emphasize that, in light of unlimited QE and runaway fiscal stimulus, the longer-duration components of intrinsic values are expanding considerably, and as a result, fair values, themselves, are actually rising during this recession and pandemic [a good estimate of the value of the S&P 500 today may be between 3,530-3,920, as outlined in the following: "Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes.]."