Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 5, 2020

Dow Jones Surges Past 27,000; Bull Market Continues!
"What a bull market off the lows we are having. I don't think we're finished, as I have pounded the table time and time and time again about how bullish I am. In the words of Frank Sinatra, "The Best Is Yet to Come," and I truly believe that. Yesterday, I explained to readers why we're seeing this huge rally, "Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am." If you understand the duration and composition of equity value (page 74-83 in Value Trap), you can start focusing on what drives share prices and returns. How else could a market rally this much with 13% unemployment, right? How wonderful it would be if everyone understood the duration of stock value composition! What would happen to ambiguous, backward-looking factor investing? Finance could then start talking about things that make sense again." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

May 20, 2020

ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events
Image: Breaking out to new highs, Facebook is a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (which includes our favorite capital appreciation ideas in a portfolio setting). The social media giant is surging on news of a new Shops feature, something we've been expecting and raving about with respect to its potential for years--as we maintain our view that, anti-trust considerations aside, Facebook is poised to become the "new Internet." The high end of our fair value estimate range for Facebook is nearly $290, and we would not be surprised if the company eventually reaches those levels. Note: PayPal, another big weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, has been a huge winner of late, too. The value of our research remains heavily tilted toward proficiency in enterprise valuation and technical/momentum indicators, portfolio construction, idea generation, individual stock selection, and assessing dividend health and resilience, among other things. ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events: Unequivocally Bullish, S&P Target Range Was Withdrawn Last Month, Continued Focus on Individual Stock Selection with "Moaty" Operations, Huge Net Cash Positions, Strong Expected Future Free Cash Flows, Established Recurring Business Models, and Otherwise Attractive Economic Castles. Big Cap Tech and Large Cap "Growth" Remain Our Favorite Allocations.

May 6, 2020

Tyson Faces Operational Hurdles
Image Source: Tyson Foods Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On May 4, the major meat and prepackaged food provider Tyson Foods reported second-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that missed consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line, sending its shares sharply lower during the regular trading session that day. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) is hurting its production capabilities, in particular the operations of its meatpacking plants as numerous confirmed COVID-19 cases (that unfortunately includes fatalities) have emerged at those facilities and the facilities of its peers across the US, prompting many to close or scale back. For instance, Tyson was forced to temporarily close a large pork plant in Waterloo, Iowa, starting in late-April as many workers were calling out sick.

Apr 29, 2020

ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” -- The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back
Image Source: BEA. Real GDP fell at an annual pace of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. We’re taking the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested,” scaling up our existing positions to reflect that status. We plan to consider put options to hedge against downside risk, if or when the time comes. Moral hazard continues to run rampant, and the Fed and Treasury may have no choice but to continue artificially propping up this market, even buying stocks through certain vehicles, if necessary. Having warned members about the impending “Great Crash of 2020” and identifying savvy opportunities near the bottom, we are now withdrawing our S&P 500 target range as we move now to focus more on individual ideas through this turbulence. We expect to continue to identify opportunities for relative outperformance. 2019 was one of the best years in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio yet. In the Exclusive, we just registered our 25th consecutive monthly short idea in a row that has worked out. The markets may go much lower from here before we go higher again, but the Fed and Treasury won’t let this market go down in the longer run, in our view--even as we navigate a Depression-type economic environment in the near term. Stay the course.

Apr 25, 2020

Emergency Update on COVID-19
President of Investment Research at Valuentum, Brian Nelson provides an emergency update on COVID-19. He talks about how policymakers have dropped the ball thus far, and why investors should not let their guards down, despite what has been a nice bounce from the March 23 bottom.

Apr 22, 2020

What To Do Now?
Let's get President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's thoughts...

Apr 19, 2020

ICYMI -- Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?
President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report.

Apr 12, 2020

ICYMI -- Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution
President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of "Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation" explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside.

Mar 30, 2020

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?
Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. We established an S&P 500 target of ~2,550 in late February and more formally established a target range of 2,350-2,750 in the March edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter, prior to the crash. As predicted, the S&P 500 crashed to the mid-point of our S&P 500 target range of 2,350-2,750, now trading at ~2,590 at this moment. We continue to emphasize that panic selling during this crisis may continue to 2,000 on the S&P, while we emphasize that the range of fair value outcomes for equities has increased, both to the upside and to the downside. Let's recap the crash in bullet-point fashion, and explain what investors can expect next.

Mar 28, 2020

Attack COVID-19 With Forward-Looking, Expected Data
President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson shares his financial wisdom in detailing how the world must attack COVID-19 with forward-looking expected data (not backward-looking, empirical data) as the global economy faces what could become the worst business environment since the Great Depression, irrespective of government fiscal stimulus.