Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Jan 19, 2023

Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.

Jan 17, 2023

Goldman Sachs Drops, Morgan Stanley Pops in “Bull Market for Advice”
Image: Morgan Stanley’s ‘Wealth Management’ division has provided the company with stability, while Goldman Sachs continues to feel weakness across several of its business segments. Image Source: TradingView. Banking entities have kicked off fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season. The quarterly results across those that have reported have been mixed thus far, among the largest entities, but perhaps the dichotomy among players was no more pronounced than the market’s reaction to Goldman Sachs’ and Morgan Stanley’s respective fourth-quarter 2022 results. Goldman Sachs’ shares fell to the lower end of our fair value estimate range, while Morgan Stanley’s shares surged toward our fair value estimate. We think Morgan Stanley’s shares could run to the high end of our fair value estimate range, or $118 each, in part on the basis of technical momentum, but we’re not making any changes to our banking fair value estimates following the results at this time.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Nov 8, 2022

Berkshire Continues to Be a Staple in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image Source: Fortune Live Media. Warren Buffett has made some missteps over the years. For every Occidental Petroleum, there is a Kraft Heinz that hasn’t worked out. For every Apple, there is an IBM that has failed to live up to expectations. We hope our readers view our work in a holistic way, much like they view Buffett’s. In the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, for example, where Meta Platforms, PayPal, and Disney haven’t lived up to expectations, other Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio “holdings” such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Vertex Pharma are up 79%, 56%, and 40% so far this year, respectively. We don’t think investors judge Warren Buffett solely on his missteps in Kraft Heinz and IBM (during a bull market no less!), no more than we hope readers won’t judge our work solely on Meta, PayPal, or Disney (during a punishing bear market!), particularly when other ideas are soaring--and the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is outdistancing the SPY so far this year. Within any investment portfolio, there will be winners and there will be losers. It’s all part of investing. Buffett understands this. Valuentum understands this. We hope you understand this, too!

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 26, 2022

Visa’s Stock Remains Resilient, Huge Free Cash Flow Margins
Image Source: Visa. Visa is one of our favorite ideas for long-term capital appreciation potential and is included as a top “weighting” in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company boasts tremendous free cash flow margins, and its competitive profile is among the strongest across all of our coverage. Management just boosted its dividend in a big way, while also upping its share buyback authorization. We continue to be huge fans of the name.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!