Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 7, 2023

Vertex Pharma Hits All-Time Highs!
Image: Vertex Pharma is one of our favorite biotech ideas, and the company continues to power to new highs. Vertex Pharma is one of the best biopharma ideas on the market today. The company’s CF franchise throws off a lot of free cash flow, and it holds a pristine balance sheet with a huge net cash position. Not only this, but the firm’s pipeline has impressive potential. Vertex’s next line-up up therapies could go a long way toward solving the opioid epidemic, while its ventures with CRISPR Therapeutics offer further long-term upside potential in gene-editing technology, one of the most exciting areas of biotech these days. The high end of our fair value estimate range stands north of $460, and we continue to like Vertex as a core idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Jul 20, 2023

Stock Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jun 26, 2023

Latest Report Updates Concentrated in Mining & Chemicals and Healthcare Industries
In our 16-page equity research reports, we offer a fair value estimate for each company based on a rigorous and transparent discounted cash flow process, assess the attractiveness of a stock based on a firm-specific margin of safety, and provide a relative valuation comparison in the context of the company’s industry and peers. Each report includes detailed pro forma financial statements, explicit fundamental forecasts, and scenario analysis. A cross section of the ValueCreation and ValueRisk ratings provides a financial assessment of a company’s business quality (competitive position), while the ValueTrend and Economic Castle ratings offer insight into the trajectory of a firm’s economic profit creation (ROIC versus WACC). Included in each 16-page report is a company's rating on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), a methodology that combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a firm's technicals and momentum indicators to derive a score between 1 and 10 for each company (10=best). We believe the VBI methodology helps identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to consider buying, helping to avoid value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost of holding a stock with great potential but at an inopportune time. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the VBI into practice. Read more about the Valuentum Buying Index rating system, "Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too." Members can access our 16-page company research reports by using our 'Symbol' search box in our website header.

Jun 12, 2023

FDA Accepts License Application for Vertex Pharma’s and CRISPR Therapeutics’ Key Investigational Treatment
Image: Vertex's pipeline is impressive. We like its areas of focus and the progress it continues to make with key therapies in CRISPR and pain management. The combination of robust financials and a tremendous pipeline of game-changing therapeutics from exa-cel to VX-548 makes Vertex Pharma a no-brainer idea for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, in our view. Vertex Pharma's shares are up nearly 18% so far in 2023, and we think its long term remains very bright. The company's dominance in CF gives it moaty economic characteristics, while the possible launch of as many as five new products in the next five years offers tremendous promise. Vertex Pharma's risk-reward situation continues to be skewed positively in investors' favor.

May 23, 2023

Call Me Unconcerned
Image: Large cap growth has dominated returns the past five years. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to have significant exposure to this area. We’re taking it slow this time of year. With the area of large cap growth nearly doubling since the beginning of 2018, trouncing the return of the broader market, dividend growth strategies, the area of small cap value and general REIT indices, it’s just hard to find much wrong with staying pat. The proliferation of artificial intelligence will likely propel big cap tech and large cap growth to new highs, while small cap value may continue to be weighed down by the banks--and dividend-oriented strategies may face continued pressure from rising interest rates and tired real estate markets. Things were a bit murky during 2022, but thanks for keeping the faith.

May 22, 2023

Nice! -- NASDAQ-100 Follows Through on Breakout
Image: NASDAQ-100 breaks through August 2022 resistance.

May 17, 2023

Our Reports on the Health Care Bellwethers Industry
Our reports on the Health Care Bellwethers industry can be found in this article. Reports include JNJ, CVS, ABT, ABBV, LLY, AMGN, MRK, PFE, VRTX, UNH, BMY, GILD, ISRG, MDT, WBA, ZTS.

Feb 8, 2023

Net-Cash-Rich Vertex Pharma’s Lucrative Cystic Fibrosis Franchise Continues to Power Performance
Image Source: Vertex Pharma. We’re huge fans of Vertex Pharma. We love its net-cash-rich balance sheet, strong free-cash-flow generating capacity and lucrative and established CF franchise. We also like its long-term potential in CRISPR gene-editing technology and pain management alternatives to opioids and believe the company has other opportunities that may eventually reach commercialization across its pipeline. Our fair value estimate of Vertex Pharma stands at $320 per share, and we continue like the company as our primary biotech exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.