Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 25, 2021

Nike Beats Estimates Aided By Its Omni-Channel Selling Strength
Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc popped higher after its latest earnings report. On June 24, Nike reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of NKE popped higher after the report. The top end of our fair value estimate range for Nike sits at $160 per share, meaningfully above where shares of NKE are trading at as of this writing--even after the latest bounce in its stock price.

Jun 24, 2021

Lululemon’s Growth Outlook Is Bright
Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Infographic. Athleisure wear maker Lululemon Athletica recently reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended May 2, 2021) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Its company-operated stores posted net revenue growth of 106% year-over-year as global economies began to recover from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The company’s direct-to-consumer (‘DTC’) net revenue grew 55% year-over-year (the e-commerce side of its business) last fiscal quarter, keeping in mind its DTC business more than doubled its net revenues in fiscal 2020. We were impressed with Lululemon’s latest results, and there could be room for shares of LULU to continue climbing higher. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $450 per share (well above where LULU is trading at as of this writing).

Mar 22, 2021

Nike’s Digital Strategy Supports Its Future Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion Prospects
Image Shown: Since announcing the launch of its Consumer Direct Offense initiative in June 2017, Nike has done a stellar job building its omni-channel selling capabilities. The company’s digitally-oriented direct-to-consumer strategy offers it the opportunity to enhance both its long-term revenue growth outlook and operating margin expansion potential. On March 18, Nike reported mixed earnings though its near-term guidance indicates its financial performance will continue to rebound after taking a beating from the COVID-19 pandemic. As of this writing, shares of NKE are trading in the upper bound of our fair value estimate range, indicating shares are roughly fairly valued at this time. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has made it clear that companies with strong omni-channel selling capabilities are in a much better position than their physical-store dependent peers. Home delivery, curbside pickup, and order online/pickup in-store represent some of the main ways companies are meeting demand received through their digital platforms. E-commerce demand has boomed over the past several quarters and that trajectory has legs, in our view. Though e-commerce was already steadily becoming a larger part of the global economy over the past two decades (adoption rates vary across geographical regions), the pandemic has accelerated that trend. Nike recognized the need to develop omni-channel selling capabilities earlier than most, and part of that strategy involved building out an ecosystem of mobile apps and related websites. The apparel, footwear, equipment, and accessory company announced its ‘Consumer Direct Offense’ initiative back in June 2017 and the goal is to build up a sizable direct-to-consumer (‘DTC’) business with a large e-commerce component. The company has its fitness apps Nike Run Club and Nike Training Club along with the Nike app, which supports its e-commerce operations, and its Nike SNKRS app that focuses on footwear. Its digital strategy also involved Nike parting ways with Amazon a couple of years ago so Nike could better control its digital strategy. On March 18, Nike reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended February 28, 2021) that saw its ‘NIKE Direct’ sales grow by 20% year-over-year, hitting $4.0 billion.

Mar 16, 2021

Roblox Goes Public; Strong Balance Sheet and Expected Free Cash Flow
Image Source: Roblox Corporation – S-1/A SEC Filing. Roblox Corp recently went public through a direct listing on March 10, 2021. The video game platform company has an extensive growth runway with multiple avenues to further expand its business. We are impressed with its free cash flow generating abilities, pristine balance sheet, and strong growth rates of late. Roblox’s outlook for 2021 indicates its growth story is expected to continue this year in earnest. Capital appreciation seeking investors should take a deeper look at Roblox, though we caution that its co-founder, CEO, and chairman controls most of the company’s voting power.

Jan 29, 2021

Starbucks Expects to Recover in Fiscal 2021
Image Shown: Shares of Starbucks Corporation appear fairly valued at this time. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $100 per share of SBUX.We're reiterating our fair value estimate of $80 per share of Starbucks, and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $100 per share. As of this writing, shares of Starbucks appear to be fairly valued at this time. While Starbucks’ operations are rebounding and its guidance for fiscal 2021 indicates the firm expects ongoing COVID-19 vaccine distribution activities will have a powerful impact on its near-term financial performance, the firm’s current share price already takes into consideration its pending recovery, in our view. We are not interested in adding Starbucks to any of our newsletter portfolios at this time.

Nov 19, 2020

Boeing’s Financials Are Absolutely Frightening
The reality is that Boeing’s financials are still pretty scary. During the first nine months of 2020, the company burned through an incredible $15.4 billion in free cash flow, even as it cut capital spending by a few hundred million. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, its total consolidated debt now stands at $61 billion, with total cash and marketable securities of $27.1 billion. This compares to total consolidated debt of $24.7 billion and total cash and marketable securities of $10.9 billion, as of the end of the third quarter of 2019. The grounding of the 737 MAX and the outbreak of COVID-19 have combined to be an absolute wrecking ball to Boeing’s financials, and it may take a very, very long time before things start looking better on the books. S&P, Moody’s and Fitch still give the company investment-grade credit ratings (BBB-/Baa2/BBB-), but we’re not sure the aerospace giant deserves them. Here’s what Fitch noted October 2020: “…many of the company's quantitative rating factors will be inconsistent with the 'BBB' category for three years (2019-2021) and into 2022.” It’s probably fair to say that Boeing’s debt should be rated junk, but that would cause some severe reverberations in the credit markets, in our view.

Nov 5, 2020

General Motors Playing Catch Up
Image: Hummer EV. According to General Motors’ website, the Hummer EV will be a “zero emissions, zero limits all-electric supertruck.” Today’s GM is in much better shape than it was during the Great Financial Crisis when it succumbed to legacy issues as evidenced by its resilience during the COVID-19 meltdown, but the reality is that operationally-leveraged cyclicals with sticky costs, messy financials, and encroaching rivals don’t tend to command a large multiple. Throw in the opaqueness of its financing arm, which adds $88.9 billion in long-term debt to the balance sheet as of the end of last year, and GM becomes too difficult a stock to own, in our view. At $36 each, GM’s shares may have bounced back a bit too much based on our fair value estimate.

Oct 30, 2020

Newmont Posts a Stellar Earnings Report, Raises Dividend
Image Shown: An overview of Newmont Corporation’s recent accomplishments. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. Shares of Newmont Corp are included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio because we view its long-term dividend growth trajectory quite favorably, and the gold miner has not disappointed. At the start of 2020, Newmont significantly increased its quarterly dividend. Due to a combination of its enlarged dividend, very promising growth outlook, sizable expected synergies from its 2019 acquisition of Goldcorp, and its stellar cash flow profile, we added shares of NEM as a holding to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020.

Sep 11, 2020

Our Thoughts on Newmont’s Bright Outlook
Image Shown: Newmont Corporation’s gold reserves are extensive and should support the gold miner’s ability to generate meaningful cash flows over the years and decades to come. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – August 2020 IR Presentation. As of this writing, shares of NEM yield ~1.5% on a forward-looking basis, and we view its forward-looking dividend coverage as rock-solid given Newmont has a Dividend Cushion ratio of 3.2, earning the firm an “EXCELLENT” Dividend Safety rating. In our view, Newmont offers investors a combination of income growth and capital appreciation upside, and we continue to like Newmont as a holding with a modest weighting in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Our Dividend Cushion ratio and Dividend Safety rating factors in our expectations that Newmont will steadily grow its per share dividend over the coming years.

Aug 31, 2020

Alibaba Mirrors the Performance of Its Western Peers
Image Shown: Alibaba Group Holding Limited posted strong results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2020, mirroring the performance of its large-cap tech peers based in Western countries (particularly the US). Image Source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited – June Quarter 2020 Earnings Presentation. At a time when US-China geopolitical tensions are rising and the Trump Administration is pushing the Chinese tech firm ByteDance to divest (at least) the US-based operations of TikTok, many Chinese tech firms are still thriving. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has fundamentally altered daily life for most households around the world. Social distancing practices have aggressively driven up e-commerce demand along with demand for cloud computing offerings (as more employees work from home and as households stay indoors for significantly longer periods).