Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jun 1, 2021

ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.

May 10, 2021

Utility PPL Is Pursuing a Major Transformation and Has a VBI Rating of 9
Image Source: PPL Corporation – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. After updating our valuation models for the utility sector, PPL recorded a VBI of 9 and we are keeping a close eye on the firm. Our fair value estimate for PPL sits at $45 per share. As of this writing, shares of PPL yield ~5.8%. The utility’s outlook is bright, and we are excited by its potential upside once the pending transactions with National Grid are complete. In the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, we include the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLU) to gain broad exposure to the space.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.

Jan 13, 2021

Surveying the Clean Energy Landscape for Ideas
Image Source: American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) – January 2021 IR Presentation.  There’s a lot of interest in clean energy these days! Though our favorite ideas within a portfolio context are always the ideas within the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, we also highlight interesting ideas via our articles that we publish on our website. In this article, let’s dig deep into the clean energy space. We’ll talk more about 1) Ameresco (AMRC), one of the green energy ideas we highlighted in the past that has performed incredibly well, 2) NextEra (NEE), a large utility “family” to keep an eye on (a utility firm and a merchant power spinoff), 3) First Solar (FSLR), a US-based manufacturer of solar panels, and 4) various alternative fuel and power storage companies, including Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE) and Gevo Inc (GEVO). The recently-passed omnibus spending package in the US included significant funds to support various alternative and renewable energy activities. For example, the production tax credit for wind farms was extended for one year while the investment tax credit for solar plants was extended by two years. This is a major benefit for both manufacturers of solar modules and wind turbines along with the utility firms (XLU) that would own/operate such assets. Looking ahead, we expect that the US federal government will be very accommodative toward the green energy space as President-elect Biden and the incoming US Congress (which will be controlled by the Democratic Party) will likely step up federal investments in the space (such as subsidies, low or no interest loans, favorable procurement contracts, and other considerations). The share prices of various solar companies are on the rise as witnessed through the performance of funds such as Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) surging higher of late, while the impressive price performance of iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) showcases the widespread nature of investor excitement toward almost all green energy oriented firms. Other securities in this realm include ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES) and SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG).

Nov 20, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week November 20
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Sep 1, 2020

Valuentum Website Overview
Overview of the key features of www.valuentum.com (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information.

Aug 31, 2020

Berkshire Hathaway Is Finally Putting Its Enormous Cash Pile to Use
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B are recovering from the steep pandemic-induced fall as the company has started to put its enormous cash-pile to work. On August 31, Berkshire Hathaway announced it had  “acquired slightly more than 5% of the outstanding shares in five of the leading Japanese trading companies” and that the firm considered these to be “passive stakes.” Those positions were acquired over approximately the past year through purchases made on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Here are the five companies in alphabetical order (by ticker): Itochu Corporation, Marubeni Corporation, Mitsui & Co. Ltd., Mitsubishi Corporation, and Sumitomo Corporation.

Aug 13, 2020

Berkshire Hathaway Recovering Lost Ground
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B started to recover some of their lost ground in early-July, and the company’s second quarter earnings report has kept the momentum going in the right direction. On August 8, Berkshire Hathaway reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Due to the impressive recovery in US equity markets since bottoming in late-March, Berkshire Hathaway’s investment portfolio put up tremendous performance last quarter, though its first quarter performance was harrowing. We include Berkshire Hathaway Class B as a holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.