Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 25, 2021

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity
Image: Shares of GameStop have been on an irrationally wild ride recently driven by what looks to have been an orchestrated and highly unethical (and perhaps illegal) short squeeze on the stock. According to some reports, during the pre-market session January 25, GameStop’s shares were up ~80%, and turned red during the trading session, with no fundamental news.In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading--or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations--would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Jan 21, 2021

ICYMI: Valuentum's Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks' Memo: "Something of Value"
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks' latest memo, "Something of Value," January 11, 2021.

Jan 8, 2021

L Brands Continues to Bounce Back
Image Source: L Brands Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. L Brands is home to the Victoria’s Secret, PINK and Bath & Body Works retail brands (PINK is included within its Victoria’s Secret umbrella). The firm has ~2,700 company-operated stores in Canada, the Greater China region, and the US along with more than 700 franchised locations worldwide. Sometime in 2021, L Brands intends to separate Bath & Body Works from its other operations, a plan management reiterated during a virtual December 2020 investor presentation. Bath & Body Works has been growing at a brisk pace of late while Victoria’s Secret has been a drag on company-wide performance at L Brands. The company has a lot on its plate, as navigating the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic while pursuing a major corporate overhaul is no easy task, though the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines should help improve its outlook as the global economy slowly begins to recover from the public health crisis. Recent fiscal stimulus measures in the US and elsewhere further supports L Brands’ outlook, as well as that of other retailers. Dick's Sporting Goods and Home Depot remain our two favorite omni-channel retail ideas for dividend-growth oriented investors.

Nov 18, 2020

Kohl’s Dead Cat Bounce May Still Have Legs
Image: Kohl's is breaking out of a month-long base on better-than-expected financial health and expectations that it will reinstate its dividend next year. The department store industry may be as poor as the airline business these days, but Kohl’s is managing to navigate the pandemic fairly well, even as it fights an uphill battle against e-commerce proliferation. The company’s annualized cash flow from operations, for example, is trending sufficiently above what we would consider normalized annual capital expenditures (~$700-$750 million). This suggests Kohl’s can be meaningfully free cash flow positive, even under a scenario where it can invest heavily in its business during “normal” times. Management even plans to start paying a dividend again during the first half of next year, and if existing trends hold and the holiday season is a success, a reinstated payout appears achievable, in our view. That said, however, in light of the poor backdrop of the department store business model and the preponderance of historical bankruptcies across the industry, we don’t view Kohl’s as a long-term investment idea by any stretch. Still, the stock’s technical breakout coupled with a better-than-expected financial position means its “dead cat bounce” could still have legs.

Nov 16, 2020

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process
With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company's revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There's a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Aug 26, 2020

L Brands Beats Low Expectations
Image Shown: Though shares of L Brands Inc are up year-to-date, they remain down significantly over the past five years as of this writing (before taking dividend considerations into account). The owner of the Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Bath & Body Works retail brands L Brands reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) on August 19 that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, those estimates were a low bar to beat as analysts had already factored in the significant headwinds the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic created for its business. Last fiscal quarter, L Brands reopened most of its stores and leaned on e-commerce sales channels to meet customer demand as best it could. For reference, Victoria’s Secret and PINK (collectively referred to as Victoria’s Secret by L Brands) sell lingerie and similar apparel/accessories while Bath & Body Works sells fragrances, soaps, hygiene products, and similar offerings.

Jan 23, 2020

Resetting Your Mental Model
Image Source: affen ajlfe. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing.

Nov 1, 2019

Our Reports on Stocks in the Retail--Apparel (Teen-30yrs, Off-Price, Outdoor) Industry
We've dropped coverage of stocks in the Retail--Apparel (Teen-30yrs, Off-Price, Outdoor) industry.

Apr 18, 2018

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages
Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website www.valuentum.com. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports.