Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 8, 2024

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Dec 23, 2023

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024
From outperforming simulated newsletter portfolios to fantastic success rates in the Exclusive publication to option ideas and great income-oriented ideas and beyond, we continue to deliver across our simulated newsletter suite as our latest video outlines. It’s hard to know exactly what 2024 will bring in terms of a market return, but the internals of the stock market and the U.S. economy look great to us. The new bull market we’re in could last for years, and as a result, we are staying aggressive with many of our new ideas as we look to benefit from these favorable trends.

Dec 16, 2023

ICYMI -- Video: Our Top Stocks for 2024
Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson walks through the success of Valuentum's newsletter suite, the state of the economy and markets, and offers his favorite idea for each sector. Tune into this must-watch video.

Dec 7, 2023

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report refreshes on the website.

Nov 17, 2023

REITs Will Likely Continue To Underperform
Image: REITs have not performed as well as some may have thought. This article clearly explains that REIT dividends are risky and showcases that REIT investors have missed out on a lot of total return during the past decade or so. One has to go back a long time to see any real return from REITs, and changing working and shopping habits will likely continue to punish the broader REIT sector. We view REITs as a game of financial leverage tied to the vicissitudes of the commercial real estate cycle, all for a dividend yield that approximates that of risk-free assets these days. REITs seem to have a large following these days and many will come to the defense of REITs in their own way, but from a bird's eye view of this market, we remain puzzled by the love affair some have for them. We can only posit that some have a myopic focus on REIT-specific metrics, are not getting the best information when it comes to capital-market dependence risk, and perhaps don't truly understand the structural dynamics of the dividend payment with respect to the free dividends fallacy (i.e. that a REIT's share price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date). In our view, the structural dynamics that have hurt REITs for the past decade won't be going away anytime soon, and for investors looking to maximize their returns and the longevity of their retirement savings, there are much better options than REITs.

Oct 31, 2023

Public Storage Raises Core FFO Guidance for 2023
Image Source: Public Storage. Among the REIT sub-sectors, we continue to favor the self-storage space mostly because its traditional free cash flow dynamics are much more attractive. Self-storage REITs are generally recession-resistant, too, offer high operating margins, and generally lower maintenance capital requirements. Public Storage is our favorite self-storage REIT and yields ~5% at the time of this writing. Shares of PSA have soured with the broader equity REIT sell-off this year and have declined nearly 13% year-to-date in 2023. Though we expect a challenging market environment for equity REITs, we view Public Storage as the best long-term play in self-storage.

Oct 25, 2023

We Will Be Removing CubeSmart and Adding Altria to the High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio
Image: Entities with large net cash positions and substantial free cash flow generation have outperformed not only the broader stock market, but also key high yield areas, including REITs, mortgage REITs and master limited partnerships during the past 10 years. We’re going to continue to lessen our exposure to the equity REIT space, removing CubeSmart from the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio on November 1 and replacing it with Altria. We’re going to keep CUBE-rival Public Storage in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio for now, but the self-storage space has come under some pressure as consumers may be balking at storage prices as they reassess their spending habits amid higher inflation. Altria doesn’t have a great balance sheet, but the firm does comfortably cover cash dividends paid with free cash flow generation, and the firm does have sizable stakes in Anheuser-Busch-Inbev and Cronos that offer it considerable financial flexibility. Shares of Altria look cheap, too. The swap out of CubeSmart and swap in of Altria within the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio will be effective upon the release of the November edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter on November 1.

Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Aug 17, 2023

3 High Dividend Yielders for Consideration
Image: Entities with large net cash positions and substantial free cash flow generation have outperformed not only the broader stock market, but also key high yield areas, including REITs, mortgage REITs and master limited partnerships during the past 10 years. Source: The respective ETF sponsors. The skills to successfully invest for long-term capital gains or long-term dividend growth are much different than those required for generating high yield dividend income. Income investing is a much different proposition. However, the skills do center on a similar equity evaluation process, but one that requires an acknowledgement and heightened awareness of considerably greater downside risks. Income investing, or high yield dividend income investing, should at times be considered among the riskiest forms of investing, as many high dividend-yielding securities tend to trade closer to the characteristics of junk-rated bonds than they do most net cash rich and free cash flow generating powerhouses that we like so much in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.