Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 13, 2020

Dollar General Near All-Time Highs, Decides to Issue Long-Term Debt at Attractive Rates
Image Source: Dollar General Corporation – May 2016 Investor Day Presentation. Dollar General is now trading near its all-time highs after rising ~8.5% year-to-date, at a time when the S&P 500 is down almost 15%, as of the end of normal trading hours on April 9. We include shares of DG in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and recently covered some of Dollar General’s operational updates in our ‘US Beer Sales Reportedly Surge During the Pandemic, Dollar General Well-Positioned to Meet Rising Demand’ article that can be viewed here. We are following up on that piece, and our note covering Dollar General’s most recent financial updates that can be viewed here, to highlight how Dollar General is maintaining its liquidity position during these harrowing times. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is wreaking havoc on global economies and staying on top of debt maturities is a key part of maintaining the funds needed to meet surging demand for consumer staples products (keeping inventory management and other considerations in mind). Shares of DG yield ~0.9% as of this writing.

Apr 12, 2020

ICYMI -- Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution
President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of "Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation" explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside.

Apr 6, 2020

Wayfair’s Sales Rise as US Households Stay In
Image Shown: Shares of Wayfair Inc shot up on April 6 after publishing a very favorable business update. E-commerce firm Wayfair sells furniture and home décor online and operates several websites including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, and Perigold. Shares of W surged upwards on April 6 after the e-commerce company put out a very promising business update that stated Wayfair’s sales were skyrocketing upwards. While most of the US economy (and others) is shutting down to contain and ride out the pandemic, Wayfair’s business model appears more resilient than the market was previously giving it credit for. That being said, the company remains very free cash flow negative and carries a net debt position. Its recent convertible debt issuance will provide Wayfair with much needed liquidity, but it remains to be seen if the company’s success of late will translate into positive free cash flows in the medium-term.

Apr 3, 2020

US Beer Sales Reportedly Surge During the Pandemic, Dollar General Well-Positioned to Meet Rising Demand
Image Source: Valuentum. According to some reports, US beer and alcohol sales are surging during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. As of early Wednesday April 1, Johns Hopkins University reported there are now over 850,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 around the world and that includes over 42,000 fatalities. We are still months away from human trials commencing on a potential vaccine, and it likely won’t be until 2021 at the very earliest that a vaccine could enter commercial production. As we wait out this pandemic, we hope everyone and their loved ones stay safe. We continue to like Dollar General in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and view the firm as well-positioned to ride out the storm and emerge on the other side as a stronger enterprise. Back on March 17, we published a piece on our website, ‘Dollar General Holding Up Relatively Well in the Face of COVID-19’, that we encourage our members to take a look if they haven’t done so already (link here).

Apr 3, 2020

Repub from July 2019 -- The Valuentum Economic Roundtable
We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market.

Mar 30, 2020

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?
Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. We established an S&P 500 target of ~2,550 in late February and more formally established a target range of 2,350-2,750 in the March edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter, prior to the crash. As predicted, the S&P 500 crashed to the mid-point of our S&P 500 target range of 2,350-2,750, now trading at ~2,590 at this moment. We continue to emphasize that panic selling during this crisis may continue to 2,000 on the S&P, while we emphasize that the range of fair value outcomes for equities has increased, both to the upside and to the downside. Let's recap the crash in bullet-point fashion, and explain what investors can expect next.

Mar 28, 2020

Attack COVID-19 With Forward-Looking, Expected Data
President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson shares his financial wisdom in detailing how the world must attack COVID-19 with forward-looking expected data (not backward-looking, empirical data) as the global economy faces what could become the worst business environment since the Great Depression, irrespective of government fiscal stimulus.

Mar 27, 2020

Grocery Outlet Is Firing on All Cylinders
Image Shown: Discount grocer Grocery Outlet Holdings Corporation has stores in six states; Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Image Source: Grocery Outlet – December 2019 IR Presentation. On March 24, discount grocer Grocery Outlet Holdings Corp reported fourth-quarter and full fiscal year earnings for fiscal 2019 (period ended December 28, 2019), and the firm beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates (albeit only marginally on the top-line). In the fiscal fourth quarter, the grocer’s GAAP net sales were up 12% year-over-year while Grocery Outlet went from a GAAP net loss of $5 million in the same quarter last fiscal year to a GAAP net profit of $10 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. That was partially due to Grocery Outlet utilizing the proceeds from its IPO in June 2019 to pay down its relatively large debt load, which in turn cut its quarterly interest expenses down by more than half year-over-year. From the end of fiscal 2018 to the end of fiscal 2019, Grocery Outlet’s total debt load (inclusive of short-term debt) fell from over $857 million to just below $448 million.

Mar 26, 2020

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill
Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending bill to offset the negative impact of the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The bill passed 96-0 after several senators forced a vote on an amendment on that bill that would have changed the nature of the “beefed up” unemployment benefits (that amendment failed 48-48, and would have needed 60 votes to pass). As of this writing, there are over 65,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US according to Johns Hopkins University, and we sincerely hope everyone, their families, and their loved ones stay safe during this pandemic. A vote in the US House of Representatives is expected this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. The House is expected to convene at 9AM EST and the goal of each party’s leadership is to secure passage of the bill via a voice vote (please note that this differs from unanimous consent, which requires every member of the House to agree to such a legislative process in order to pass a bill without having the majority of lawmakers return to Washington DC, but this is easier/faster to achieve than a recorded roll call vote that would force every member of the House to return). Assuming the House swiftly passes the bill that was approved in the Senate, President Trump has clearly communicated he would sign the bill into law right away. Please note this bill is formally known as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (‘CARES’) Act.

Mar 23, 2020

US Fiscal Stimulus Update
Image Source: frankieleon. The US Congress is debating and working on a massive multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus package to mitigate the negative impact the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is having on the domestic economy and to provide for additional healthcare funds to cash-strapped entities to combat the virus.