Member Articles

Roaring 20s? — Consumer Staples Valuations Stretched

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Strong outlooks for Kimberly-Clark, United Technologies, Hexcel and Lockheed Martin point to an economy that is still gaining momentum. We caution investors of consumer staples stocks, however, with many equities holding large net debt positions, and the sector trading at almost 20 times forward earnings. Learn about the difference between the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive publication and much more in this note. Image Source: Alan Levine — By Brian Nelson, CFA Welcome new members!    As you’re getting familiar with the website, please watch the Navigation Video. For those passionate about financial analysis and to see how deep our team goes with our research, please watch the Financial Analysis Video. Finally, don’t forget to flip through the , and read our … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.165. AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.49. American States Water (AWR): now $0.305 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Apollo Global Management (APO): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.46. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.60 per … Read more

Primer on the Banking Sector: Where Are We in the Cycle?

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Image Source: GotCredit Three of our favorite banks are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and US Bancorp. These are three very high-quality institutions which are also very well managed. They all benefit from cultures that encourage the right kind of risk/reward thinking. If these equities start to trade at a meaningful discount to our fair value estimates, they may be are worth considering as long-term investments, in our view. Summary We’ll talk about how banks make money, and the three most important costs of running a bank. The Great Financial Crisis revealed the tremendous risks of banking equities, and we’ll walk through these in depth. We’ll discuss how to conceptualize where we are in the banking cycle, and how that … Read more

Economic Commentary: Bank Earnings, US-China Phase One No Big Deal and More

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Bloomberg recently reported that U.S. banks’ record-breaking earnings have likely peaked for this cycle. We’ll get the team’s thoughts on this, and we’ll also cover views on the corporate credit cycle, China GDP, and the US election cycle. We don’t think the US-China Phase One deal amounts to much, other than removing the uncertainty that it, itself, created. Let’s kick things off with our views on a recent Bloomberg piece, U.S. Banks’ Record-Breaking Earnings Streak Has Probably Peaked, “which notes that “global interest rates remain stubbornly low and geopolitical tensions (remain) high.” Matt Warren is Valuentum’s Independent Bank and Economic contributor, and we’ll start there. Matthew Warren: The views expressed in the article seem a bit overly bearish assuming the … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 17

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Autohome Inc. (ATHM): now $0.77/ADS annual dividend. Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. (CCU): now $0.4355 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1985. First Republic Bank (FRC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Costco (COST): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.65. Donegal Group (DGICB): now $0.1325 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1275. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): now $1.01 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.95. Plumas … Read more

Our Thoughts on Chevron Buying Noble Energy

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Image Shown: An overview of Chevron Corporation’s all-stock acquisition of Noble Energy Inc that was announced in July 2020. Image Source: Chevron Corporation – July 2020 Noble Energy Acquisition Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 20, Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced it was acquiring Noble Energy Inc (NBL) through a $5.0 billion all-stock transaction, or $13.0 billion when factoring in net debt and the book value of non-controlling interests. Shareholders of Noble Energy will receive approximately 0.12 share of Chevron for each share of Noble Energy. At the time the deal was announced, shareholders of NBL were receiving a ~12% premium based on the ten-day average closing stock prices. Chevron intends to issue ~58 million shares to cover the deal, keeping … Read more

Our Thoughts on Rackspace and Zoom Video Communications

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Image Source: Rackspace Technology Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation The appeal of the SaaS space is that these types of companies are asset-light and are light on capital expenditures, potentially allowing for meaningful free cash flows if scale is achieved. Secular growth tailwinds underpin their free cash flow growth trajectories, and the pandemic has accelerated changes that were already underway long before COVID-19 came into the picture. We appreciate that Rackspace is beginning to pay down its net debt load, though more work needs to be done on that front. Zoom Video Communications posted truly impressive results; however, we caution that there are many competitors in the live online video chat arena and staying on top … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more