Member Articles

Intel Seeks 5G Network and IoT Growth to Offset Data Center Weakness

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Image Source: Picture taken by the author. By Callum Turcan A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Intel Corporation (INTC) reported earnings on July 25. The semiconductor boosted full-year revenue guidance by $0.5 billion to $69.5 billion while increasing non-GAAP EPS up to $4.40 (from $4.35 previously) for fiscal year 2019, keeping in mind Intel’s top- and bottom-lines are expected to weaken modestly on a year-over-year basis due to poor performance at its data center segment. Management reiterated that Intel still expects to generate $15.0 billion in free cash flow in fiscal year 2019 after spending $15.5 billion on capital expenditures. We like Intel’s free cash flows and income growth trajectory. Shares of INTC … Read more

In the News: Amazon, GE, Kraft-Heinz, Disney, CVS Health, Gilead

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We’re reiterating the large range of fair value outcomes for Amazon. We’re staying far away from General Electric and Kraft-Heinz. Netflix may have its back against the ropes with Disney Plus. CVS Health and Gilead were two setbacks in the newsletter portfolios in the past, but we kept losses to a minimum and new ideas more than offset the weakness. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to do very well. By Brian Nelson, CFA Amazon (AMZN) Image Shown: Amazon has a large range of fair value outcomes, and shares are trading roughly in line with our fair value estimate. The e-commerce powerhouse’s shares have come in aggressively since it reported second-quarter results July 25. We get a lot of questions … Read more

What About Gold?

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A version of this note was emailed to members August 8, 2019. Please contact us at info@valuentum.com if you are not receiving our emails. What About Gold? By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Hope you are having a great day! I wanted to thank you so much for being here. I’m so appreciative of your interest and attention, and for making Valuentum what it is — we are making a huge difference for investors, and it’s all because of your support! Don’t forget to leave a review of Value Trap. Even a couple sentences mean a lot! For those new members that are just getting familiar with our offerings, with the basic premium membership, we offer two newsletters and access to … Read more

Booking Holdings Pops, Still Underpriced

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Booking Holdings, formerly Priceline, reported solid second-quarter 2019 results. We continue to believe this Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding is undervalued. Our fair value estimate stands at ~$2,130+. By Brian Nelson, CFA Booking Holdings (BKNG), formerly Priceline, was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in February 2015, registering a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index at the time, at ~$1,240 per share. Shares of the company are soaring during the trading session August 8 on news of a strong second-quarter report. Shares currently trade hands for ~$1,950 each. For some of our new members that may not be familiar with Booking Holdings, the company operates the “world’s leading brand for booking online accommodation reservations,” Booking.com. It also operates KAYAK … Read more

Tallgrass Energy’s Growth Runway Shorter Than Expected

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Image Source: Tallgrass Energy LP – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Valuentum’s High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio parted ways with Tallgrass Energy LP (TGE) on August 1, as we wanted to reduce our exposure to the midstream space. We don’t like TGE as much as we once did and think it’s best to move on to better opportunities. Please note Blackstone Group Inc (BX), through affiliates of Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, closed its purchase of Tallgrass’ general partner in March 2019 which included those parties acquiring a 44% economic interest in Tallgrass. In 2018, Tallgrass reorganized as a C-Corp which we were very supportive of. Additionally, the midstream company has been very free cash flow positive historically (when defined as net … Read more

Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge

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The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China. No changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time. During the past few days, the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) have escalated a trade war, turning it into a currency war, the latter allowing its yuan to drop to lower levels against the U.S. dollar. The US has now labeled China a “currency manipulator,” and China has responded by suspending U.S. agricultural purchases. China is one of the largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods. The Valuentum team builds on its previous conversation … Read more

Sprouts’ Growth Spurt Followed by Weak Operating Margins and Terrible Guidance

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Image Source: Sprouts Farmers Market Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) is a grocery chain that focuses heavily on selling organic foods, healthy foods, and other higher priced items in nearly two dozen US states through 331 stores as of August 1. The company does not pay out a common dividend at this time, and please keep in mind Sprouts’ fiscal year and calendar are slightly different (fiscal year 2018 ended on December 30). While Sprouts has a lot of room to grow as it enters new domestic markets, we caution that the company is operating in a very competitive industry and shares of SFM already appear fully valued, if not generously valued, as … Read more

Realty Income Posts Solid Earnings, Acquires Overseas Real Estate for First Time

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Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Realty Income Corporation (O) is a REIT focused on free-standing, single-tenant commercial properties in 49 US states, Puerto Rico, and now the UK. At the end of the second quarter of 2019, Realty Income had economic interests in almost 6,000 properties. The REIT reported second quarter earnings on August 5, and we liked what we saw. Realty Income is included in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and shares of O yield 3.9% as of this writing. Please note that the REIT pays out a monthly dividend and has been doing so for 589 consecutive months (~49 years). Financial Overview As you can see in the graphic below, Realty Income … Read more

Oil Major Second-Quarter 2019 Earnings Roundup

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Earnings Coverage by Ticker: BP, COP, CVX, RDS.A/RDS.B, TOT, XOM Let’s look at the Oil Majors that have recently reported earnings. BP’s Upstream Operational Execution Remains Strong On July 30, BP plc (BP) reported non-GAAP flat year-over-year underlying replacement cost profit of $2.8 billion in the second quarter of 2019. Marginal reductions in operating income from its upstream and downstream segments were offset by a reduction in corporate-level expenses. BP owns a 19.75% stake in Rosneft (OJSCY) which saw earnings move lower in the second quarter by an estimated ~25%. Unlike its peers who generally reported significant weakness at their downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, marketing, and retail operations), BP’s … Read more

Markets Crumbling Under Trade War

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Markets Crumbling Under Trade War — Just a reminder to lock in the Exclusive today. The price of the publication will go up tomorrow. The Exclusive highlights an income idea, a capital-appreciation idea, and a short idea each month. It is limited to 1,000 subscribers. Learn more here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Stock markets around the globe are under considerable pressure during today’s trading session, August 5, as onlookers no longer have faith that the White House and China officials are being truthful about the progress of trade talks. We think credibility is severely damaged, and China letting the yuan decline against the US dollar suggests the country may go to just about any lengths to defend itself against US … Read more