Member Articles

Good News for Microsoft

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Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR PowerPoint Presentation By Callum Turcan Our favorite way to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is large-cap tech companies, particularly those with high quality cash flow profiles, pristine balance sheets, and strong growth outlooks supported by secular growth tailwinds. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fits that bill perfectly, which is why we include shares of MSFT as a holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We added shares of MSFT back to both of those newsletter portfolios on June 12 (link here) and we increased the weighting of MSFT in both newsletter portfolios on August 20 (link here). Overview Microsoft offers investors a combination of … Read more

This Stock Market Doesn’t Scare Me

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Dear members:   It’s amateur hour at Seeking Alpha, it seems. Most have been calling for a market crash the past week or so, but it’s hard for me to take many writers over there too seriously. Neither should you. We had the crash in February/March of this year, and the Fed/Treasury will do what it takes to prevent another one, in my view. Let me say it for the first time: This stock market doesn’t scare me.  The reality is that we finally bumped up into fair value range. It wasn’t a day or two after I sent out a market alert to you to let you know that markets are now fairly valued when we started to see some … Read more

General Motors Makes a Deal with Nikola

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Image Shown: On September 8, shares of General Motors Corporation (in orange) and Nikola Corporation (in blue) jumped higher during normal trading hours after announcing their strategic partnership. By Callum Turcan On September 8, General Motors Corporation (GM) and Nikola Corporation (NKLA) announced a strategic partnership that saw shares of GM and NKLA leap up 8% and 41% during regular trading hours that day, respectively. General Motors will receive an 11% equity stake in Nikola (via common stock issuance) worth ~$2 billion in return for agreeing to provide Nikola in-kind services as “General Motors will engineer, homologate, validate and manufacture the Nikola Badger battery electric and fuel cell versions” which involves utilizing General Motors’ “Ultium battery system and Hydrotec fuel … Read more

Dividend Growth Selection in a Low Yield Environment

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Dear members: — John Burr Williams’ historical work The Theory of Investment Value, published in 1938, set the foundation for the widely known discounting mechanism inherent within equity valuation frameworks today. His text is often credited with the origins of the dividend discount model. Though Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation identifies enterprise valuation, or the discounted cash flow model (the free cash flow to the firm model, to be precise) as the causal driver of values and prices, the concepts are very similar. Stock values and prices are a function of future expectations. — Today, with highly accommodative Fed and Treasury policy, interest rates are ultra-low, and even yields on junk-rated debt have plummeted. For example, Ball Corp (BLL), a junk-rated credit (jargon … Read more

Macy’s Is Treading Water for Now

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Image Shown: Shares of Macy’s Inc have flatlined since crashing during the first three months of calendar year 2020 as investors await signs of the embattled retailer’s turnaround strategy taking hold. By Callum Turcan On September 2, embattled retailer Macy’s Inc (M) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that saw the firm’s comparable sales drop 34.7% year-over-year at stores owned by Macy’s due primarily to physical store closures brought on by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The year-over-year decline in comparable sales deepened to 35.1% when including stores owned and licensed by Macy’s. Digital sales offered some reprieve as those were up 53% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, with digital sales as a percentage of the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week September 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Formula Systems (FORTY): now $0.5206 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.4609. Kenon (KEN): now $2.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.21 per share quarterly dividend. JOYY (YY): now $0.31 per share/ADS quarterly dividend. RCI Hospitality (RICK): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.03. Royalty Pharma (RPRX): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend. Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR): now $0.20329 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1017. Smith … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

Schlumberger and Liberty Oilfield Services Make a Deal

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Image Shown: Schlumberger NV is combining its OneStim business with Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. The picture above is an overview of the combined company on a pro forma basis. Image Source: Liberty Oilfield Services Inc – Schlumberger to Contribute OneStim to Liberty IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On September 1, Schlumberger NV (SLB) and Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT) announced that Schlumberger would combine its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the US and Canada, OneStim, with Liberty Oilfield Services. That includes Schlumberger’s pressure pumping and pumpdown perforating businesses in the relevant regions, and its frac sand business in the Permian Basin (West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico). In return, Schlumberger is getting a 37% equity stake in Liberty Oilfield Services … Read more

Apple Reportedly Launching 5G iPhone Soon

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Image Shown: Shares of Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Apple Inc have continued to surge higher this year. The tech giant is supported by strong demand for its hardware offerings, the launch of new services, and growing demand for its existing services. We are intrigued by the upcoming launch of its first 5G-capable iPhone, which is reportedly due to be released this Fall. By Callum Turcan Very recently, Bloomberg reported that Apple Inc (AAPL) is asking its suppliers to get ready to deliver at least 75 million 5G iPhones later this year, which may grow as high as 80 million. What makes these targets particularly noteworthy is that it appears Apple is expecting demand for its … Read more

The Merits of Concentrated Portfolios

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My dear friends: — Many thanks for your continued interest in our work.  — Though uncertainty in the efficacy of any vaccine for coronavirus disease (“COVID-19”) remains, the New York Times reported today that the CDC “has notified public health officials in all 50 states and five large cities to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high-risk groups as soon as late October or early November,” just weeks from now.  — While expected by the optimists, we continue to view this as good news. The sheer amount of resources, both public and private, seeking a vaccine for COVID-19 leads me to believe we’ll have one sooner than later, in time to set the economy up for a stronger-than-expected … Read more