Brian Nelson

Freeport McMoRan Following the BHP Model

by

Early Wednesday morning, leading copper and gold miner Freeport McMoRan (click ticker for report: ) announced a $9 billion blockbuster deal to acquire its former holding McMoRan Oil & Gas (click ticker for report: ) and independent oil and gas company Plains Exploration & Production (PXP). The deal itself values Plains at approximately $45-50 per share ($25 per share cash/0.6531 shares of FCX per share), while Freeport will pay $14.75 per share for McMoRan Oil & Gas. Given the cloudy long-term outlook for copper and gold mining, mainly a result of the often unfriendly places these resources reside, we think the company is happy to purchase operations in the Gulf and continental US. We’ve seen mine nationalization in both South … Read more

Inside Intel’s Debt Offering

by

Chipmaker Intel (click ticker for report: ) has seen its share price take a large haircut this year, as investors worry about the decline of the PC, as well as Intel’s lack of presence in the mobile ecosystem. Still, the company sits on a $10.4 billion cash ($3 billion net cash) hoard, continues to make strides in mobile (though it’s not there yet), and it has continued to do well in the enterprise market. So why did the company just announce that it will raise $6 billion of debt? The first obvious reason is to capitalize on low interest rates. The 5 year notes of the offering will yield a paltry 1.35% ($3b), the 10 year notes will yield 2.7% ($1.5b), … Read more

Auto Parts Retailers Feeling the Auto Recovery

by

With the auto recovery in full swing, we’re starting to see a momentum swing from one of the best performing sectors of the past few years, the auto parts retailers. Instead of buying a new Ford (click ticker for report: ) or Toyota (click ticker for report: ), which require heavy capital investments, consumers have opted to repair their cars (whether at an auto shop or by themselves) instead of purchasing a new one. But, with the SAAR exceeding 15.2 million units in November, it’s clear that the fleet replacement is in full swing, in our view. AutoZone (click ticker for report: ) reported first quarter results Tuesday morning. Overall sales increased 3.5% year-over-year to $2 billion, which was roughly … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

by

At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more

Darden Struggling to Remain Relevant

by

Restaurant group Darden (click ticker for report: ), owner of chains like LongHorn Steakhouse, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, and Yard House, warned that its second quarter results will be weaker than expected. Net operating earnings are expected to total $0.25-$0.26 per share, well below the consensus estimate of $0.46 per share, with $0.05 lost due to the acquisition of Yard House and one penny lost to Hurricane Sandy. Perhaps the most surprising portion of the announcement was the momentum we were seeing going into the quarter, particularly at Red Lobster and LongHorn. Olive Garden saw same-store sales fall 3.8% in September, 3.9% in October, and 2% in November, driven mostly by huge drops in traffic. Red Lobster, which had finally … Read more

Toll Brothers’ Fourth Quarter Results Were Fantastic

by

Tuesday morning, one of the nation’s premier homebuilders, Toll Brothers (click ticker for report: ) reported spectacular fourth quarter results. Revenues surged 48% year-over-year to $632.8 million, well ahead of consensus expectations. Earnings per share jumped to $2.35 per share from $0.09 a year ago thanks to the release of deferred tax assets. Pretax income jumped nearly 300% year-over-year to $60.7 million. Key metrics for Toll’s business were mostly strong across the board. Net signed contracts in the fourth quarter jumped 70% year-over-year to 1,098 units, with a 75% surge in value to $684.1 million. The firm’s backlog jumped 54% to 2,569 units, with the value of that backlog increasing 70% to $1.67 billion. Stronger pricing also helped gross margins … Read more

November Auto Sales Roundup

by

November auto sales were strong across the board, with the SAAR expected to be around 15.2 million units. Let’s take a look at performance on an individual company basis. Ford Best Ideas Newsletter holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) healthily exceeded its consensus sales growth forecast of 3.5% unit growth, with sales expanding 6.5% during November and retail sales growing 12%. Total small car units surged 76% year-over-year, making it Ford’s best November small car performance in 12 years. Utilities and trucks units lagged cars, growing 2% and 3.7%, respectively, compared to 15.2% growth in total car sales. Although performance was boosted due to sales being pulled into November as a result of Sandy, we thought the results were good, … Read more

Are Any Rumored Buyouts Worth Betting On?

by

Buyouts and private-equity acquisitions can provide powerful stock moves and often act as the catalyst to drive stock prices to intrinsic value. In the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter, we had held shares of Collective Brands. We liked the company’s valuation, relatively small size, and its attractiveness to other companies (among other things). And while we’d never own a stock solely on speculation of M&A activity, a buyout turned out to be the catalyst for our call on Collective Brands to work out for members. Shares proceeded to appreciate over 35% on our cost basis! In recent months, we’ve heard rumors of cash-heavy companies and private equity funds interested in several different deals. Let’s take a look at a few higher-profile names. … Read more

A Dual Focus on Valuation and Yield Is the Best Way to Combat Changes in Future Dividend Tax Rates

by

With a potential hike in the dividend tax rate just around the corner, there is no more important time than now for income investors to evaluate their existing portfolio holdings to determine whether they are well-positioned for a higher-tax environment. Assuming there are no changes to the current trajectory, the top dividend tax rate is expected to rise to 39.6% next year (up from 15% currently), and the highest-income earners will see a Medicare surtax on top of that. Evaluate All Aspects of a Dividend Investment First of all, we think those investing in high-yielders (firms) at any price (HYAAP) may be most affected by this change in tax rates. These high-yielders at any price (HYAAP) tend to be favorites of those at or near retirement, particularly given the paltry payouts on fixed … Read more