Brian Nelson

Phillips 66 Hikes Dividend 25%!

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Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Phillips 66 (click ticker for report: ) announced on Tuesday that it would raise its quarterly dividend 25% to $0.39 per share. This equates to an annual dividend of $1.56 per share, and an annual yield of 2.6% at current levels. We applaud the move, though we aren’t surprised, as we have long believed that the firm has excellent dividend safety and growth potential. In our view, the longer-term fundamental story for Phillips 66 and the broader industry continues to look positive as refining capacity remains constrained and more advantaged crude flows through North American pipelines. At this time, Philips 66 remains our favorite idea in the refinery space and a holding in the portfolio … Read more

Strong Prescription Comps Drive Walgreens

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On Tuesday, pharmacy giant Walgreens (click ticker for report: ) posted strong fourth-quarter results bolstered by solid prescription comps. Sales increased 5.1% year-over-year to $17.9 billion, roughly in-line with consensus estimates. Adjusted earnings per share increased 16% year-over-year to $0.73, also in-line with consensus expectations. For the full fiscal year, Walgreens generated free cash flow around $3 billion, equal to 4.3% of revenue. Comps Source: Company Filings, Valuentum Although the 2-year trend remains negative, Walgreens posted positive same-store sales during the fourth quarter, with front-end sales up 1.6% year-over-year and prescription sales up 6.4% year-over-year (resulting in total same-store sales growth of 4.6%). The comp gains came in spite of declining traffic, leading us to believe that new initiatives such … Read more

Ford Once Again Leads the Pack with September Sales

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September auto sales once again revealed a strong US auto market that continues to capitalize on pent-up demand. Though the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) fell from its 16 million-unit rate in August to 15.3 million units in September, the sequential decline seems mostly attributable to a timing shift (there were two fewer selling days in September than a year ago), and we’re not reading too much into the perceived modest industry-wide slowdown. As we can see from the chart below, there is plenty of volatility in the numbers from month to month, something that investors should continue to expect. Source: NADA Ford Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Ford (click ticker for report: ) exceeded consensus estimates calling for flat … Read more

Jobs Slashed in Hopes of Operating Margin Expansion

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As the battle over the budget rages on, pharmaceuticals giant Merck (click ticker for report: ) and German conglomerate Siemens AG (click ticker for report: ) announced massive job cuts targeted at reducing annual operating expenses. Merck On Tuesday, Merck announced a bold plan to cut $2.5 billion in annual operating expenses, with the lion’s share of savings derived from marketing and R&D cuts. The firm anticipates $1 billion in cost savings by the end of 2014, with the remainder realized in 2015. 7,500 jobs have already been cut, but the firm will slash an additional 8,500 jobs in order to achieve its targeted cost savings. The restructuring is expected to result in pre-tax costs of $2.5-$3 billion, though only … Read more

Market Yawns at Government Shutdown

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It finally happened Monday night. After weeks of discussing the possibility of a government shutdown, the US government came to a standstill over the Affordable Healthcare Act and the budget, forcing governmental agencies to shutter doors and not pay employees on Tuesday. The shutdown impacts the Department of Defense most, where 400,000 workers out of the total 800,000 on leave are employed. The Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, and Department of Transportation are all also meaningfully impacted. At this time, the duration of the shutdown is unknown. It may not last long.   We think most market participants are not expecting a prolonged shutdown. Political parties should be sufficiently embarrassed, pride will be swallowed, and a deal will eventually … Read more

Valuentum’s October Edition of Its Dividend Growth Newsletter!

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Three Reasons Why Dividend Growth Investors Are Quite Savvy by Brian Nelson, CFA There are many different approaches to investing, but we think dividend growth investors are quite savvy, especially when they combine a rigorous dividend growth process in the form of the Valuentum Dividend Cushion with the valuation rigors behind the Valuentum Buying Index. Let’s examine the three reasons why we think dividend growth investors are a smart group. #1. Fool Me Once, Shame on You…Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me Today’s dividend growth crowd has seen enough. First, they witnessed the dot-com bubble (1997-2000), a period in stock market history where firms’ stock prices soared in some cases as a result of just adding an “e-“ prefix to their … Read more

J.C. Penney: Equity Offering Shows Desperation; Shares Score a 1 on the VBI; Lights Out by Mid-2014?

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With sales declining precipitously and bankruptcy looking like a real possibility, we have materially lowered our equity fair value estimate on retailer J.C. Penney (click ticker for report: ) to $3 per share. The firm now scores a 1 on the Valuentum Buying Index, and we’re avoiding shares at all costs in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter. Why Now? We haven’t liked J.C. Penney since former CEO Ron Johnson’s plan showed signs it clearly wasn’t working, and we have consistently maintained that Penney’s business model was obsolete and doomed to fail over the long term, even before Johnson made changes. Still, earlier this year, the firm improved its liquidity position when it raised over $2 billion in cash via debt with an interest … Read more

Nike Marks a Strong Start to Earnings Season

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After becoming the newest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, athletic apparel giant Nike (click ticker for report: ) posted a fantastic start to its 2014 fiscal year. First quarter revenue jumped 8% year-over-year to $7 billion, roughly in-line with consensus estimates. Earnings per share, on the other hand, soared past consensus expectations, growing 37% year-over-year to $0.86. Free cash flow totaled $379 million, equal to 5.4% of net revenue. Product Demand Remains Robust The primary reason behind Nike’s continued strength in the athletic apparel space is the robust demand for its products. The firm continues to innovate, particularly in the running and basketball spaces, and the innovations helped demand remain strong across all geographies. Revenue in North America, … Read more

Keeping Some Dry Powder

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A young cowboy named Billy Joe grew restless on the farm A boy filled with wonderlust who really meant no harm He changed his clothes and shined his boots And combed his dark hair down And his mother cried as he walked out Don’t take your guns to town son Leave your guns at home Bill Don’t take your guns to town — Johnny Cash “Don’t Take Your Guns to Town” << What does it mean to have “dry powder”? Valuentum pursues a standard quarterly report update cycle, and our latest update of companies in the Electrical Equipment industry was quite informative. This group includes many companies that operate within the heart of the industrial economy but fall short of … Read more

Third Quarter Results at Lennar and KB Home Were Resilient

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We were hit with a flood of housing data during the past week, with two of the nation’s largest homebuilders posting decent third-quarter results. Recent data also revealed a continued upward trajectory in home prices across the US. Let’s dig into the developments. Housing Price Improvements The S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (1) increased 1.84% sequentially to 162.49, revealing that housing prices have now finally recovered to 2004 levels. The pace of expansion is off slightly from the previous sequential month’s rate of 2.2% growth, but we do not believe the slight slowdown in the rate of growth is enough to draw any significant conclusions with respect to the pace of the upward trajectory. All of the 20 cities measured in the index showed … Read more