Brian Nelson

Industrial Conglomerates Dominate News on Friday

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The latter part of this week brought about a plethora of news from the ‘Industrial Conglomerates’ industry. On Friday, General Electric (GE) announced a 16% increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.22 per share (a 3.3% annual yield). The industrial behemoth was just added to the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter October 21 on account of its fantastic Dividend Cushion score and solid third-quarter performance. General Electric’s dividend report will be updated with the new information shortly. Also on Friday, Honeywell (HON) approved an authorization to repurchase up to $5 billion of its common stock, now that the firm’s previous $3 billion share repurchase program approved in 2011 is substantially complete. We encourage Honeywell management to be a bit … Read more

Cisco’s Investor Update Reveals Challenges

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On Thursday, switching and routing giant Cisco (CSCO) hosted its 2013 Financial Analyst Conference, and management’s commentary during the meeting wasn’t encouraging. The firm’s fiscal first quarter 2014 results, released mid-November, had showcased significant order weakness (see here) and commentary on the company’s fiscal first-quarter conference call indicated that the firm did not anticipate material improvement in its order growth during the second quarter, but CEO John Chambers’ reiteration of his view today that emerging markets remain “extremely challenged,” particularly in Brazil and Russia, has sent shockwaves across much of the networking industry. It appears the market had been building in expectations that some order stabilization would occur at this point during the quarter, and Chambers comments may have mitigated … Read more

Toll Brothers Sees Leveling of Demand But Outlook Remains Strong

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On Tuesday, one of the largest luxury homebuilders in the US, Toll Brothers (TOL) released its results for the fiscal fourth quarter (ended October 31, 2013). Revenue growth and unit delivery expansion were fantastic, up 65% in dollars and 36% in units compared to the prior-year quarter. Net signed contracts of $839 million and 1,163 units rose 23% in dollars and 6% in units compared to last year’s period, while on a per-community basis, the fourth quarter witnessed net signed contracts per community (5.17) that was the highest for any fourth quarter since 2005. Backlog of $2.63 billion and 3,679 units rose 57% in dollars and 43% in units compared to the year-ago mark. The average price of homes delivered … Read more

Miners Continue to Be Cautious

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Though profit margins on iron ore operations are hefty, swings in commodity prices translate into large swings in equity prices as mid-cycle valuations are tweaked. Management teams within the mining space are well-aware of the boom-and-bust cycles of their business, and recent tactical moves indicate that constituents continue to be very cautious. We commented on Rio Tinto’s (RIO) and Vale’s (VALE) decision to cut spending, and recent news suggests that BHP (BHP) will also look to keep annual spending below $15 billion, a large cut from the $21.7 billion the firm spent in the previous fiscal year. The billions of dollars in reduced mining equipment spending doesn’t bode well for firms specializing in earth-moving equipment such as Caterpillar (CAT) and … Read more

Baidu Up Big Since August Email Transaction Alert; Valuentum Members Cheer!

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Valuentum has two actively-managed portfolios, one is its Best Ideas portfolio (housed in its Best Ideas Newsletter) and the other is its Dividend Growth Newsletter (housed in its Dividend Growth Newsletter). Each edition of its Best Ideas Newsletter is released on the 15th of the month, while each edition of its Dividend Growth Newsletter is released on the 1st of each month. Though not all members use the newsletters, the monthly publications represent the avenues through which we deliver the respective actively-managed portfolios that ultimately are the gauge we use to measure performance. We send out email transaction alerts to members to keep them abreast of new additions to and removals from these portfolios, as well as any weighting changes … Read more

Lumber Liquidators Is Still Pricey Even After Fall

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Traditionally, when a firm makes the list of the ’Top 25 Most Overvalued Firms’ in the stock market, the primary reason is that market participants have built in expectations far greater than what the firm can reasonably achieve. Lumber Liquidators (LL) has been on our ‘Top 25 Most Overvalued Firms’ list for some time, and the recent update to its outlook December 9, which came in below consensus expectations, sent shares tumbling. The specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in North America provided the following for its outlook for 2013 and 2014: Company Outlook for 2013 Based on year-to-date results and current trends, the company now expects to achieve the following for the full year 2013: Net sales in the range of … Read more

Surveying Results at the Auto Parts Retailers

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Monday was a day auto-parts retailer Pep Boys (PBY) would rather soon forget. The company reported fiscal third-quarter results (ending November 2013) that came up short with consensus expectations. Comparable same-store sales at the automotive retail chain declined 2.8% (well below its targets for low-single-digit expansion), consisting of a 0.5% comparable service revenue increase and a 3.6% comparable merchandise sales decrease. The firm swung to a modest quarterly net profit during the period, but its nine-month diluted earnings per share profit of $0.19 was significantly worse than the $0.51 per share profit recorded in the prior-year period. Same-store sales are decelerating as the quarterly mark (-2.8%) is materially worse than the nine-month tally, which was -1%. Through the first nine-months of … Read more

McDonald’s US Comparable Sales Fall

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On Monday, McDonald’s (MCD) reported lackluster November comparable sales. European comparable sales (comps) were solid, up 1.9%, but comps in the APMEA (Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa) and US weighed on expansion, falling 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively. Performance in the APMEA was weighed down by weakness in Japan, while US comps suffered from heightened competitive activity and relatively flat industry demand trends that were only partially offset by strength in breakfast, chicken menu choices and expanded value offerings. Systemwide sales advanced 3.1% in constant currencies during the month. The news from McDonald’s is unique in that it runs counter to a report from the National Restaurant Association, released December 2, that the Restaurant Performance Index, RPI (1), hit a four-month … Read more

PC Shipments Expected To Stabilize

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According to data released by the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker on December 2, personal computer (PC) shipments are now expected to drop more than 10% in 2013, slightly below the previous projection of -9.7%. Though 2013 will be the most severe yearly contraction on record, this news wasn’t the key takeaway. Instead, it was expectations for stabilizing demand by 2015 that provided a shot of optimism to the PC supply chain (see image below). Image Source: IDC The commentary provided by IDC was not terribly exciting, but market expectations are closer to the PC going the way of the dodo than stabilizing at just over 300 million units (roughly 2008 levels). We continue to believe that … Read more

Share Buybacks in Vogue for Portfolio Holdings

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Showcasing strong cash flow generation, portfolio holdings Union Pacific (UNP) and Phillips 66 (PSX) have issued new buyback programs recently. On November 21, Union Pacific announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to 60 million common shares by 2017. The new four year authorization allows for the repurchase of roughly 13% of current shares outstanding. On December 6, Phillips 66 approved a new $2 billion share repurchase program. Since the third quarter of 2012, Phillips 66 has authorized a total of $5 billion in share repurchases and has increased dividends from $0.20 per share to $0.39 cents per share on a quarterly basis. Though we tend to prefer immediate dividend growth instead of buyback initiatives for most dividend growth portfolio … Read more