Brian Nelson

Yikes! Investor Expectations

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A few days ago, I received an email from a valued member of ours. He said that our call on Ford (F) was wrong because we removed shares from the Best Ideas portfolio too early. Another member mentioned a couple months ago that we removed Baidu (BIDU) from the Best Ideas portfolio too early, and he was extremely disappointed for this reason. One of our most valued financial advisor clients, whom said that our call on a certain industry had saved him millions in client assets, decided to cancel his subscription due to a structural shift in his business to ETFs. The puzzling part of all of this, however, is that our call on Ford reaped a ~35% gain, the … Read more

Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend

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As is often the case, the larger the dividend yield the more risky the payout. I talk about this quite a bit in the video: ‘Dividends, Dividends, Dividends.’ Please have a look. All else equal, we tend to prefer cash-flow-based operating companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) rather than opaque, risky structures such as business development companies (BDC’s), where traditional fundamental analysis is less-informative. Sure enough, a dividend cut at Prospect Capital (PSEC) came in a warm holiday package today. The business development company announced that it will reduce cash dividends to shareholders to $0.08333 on a monthly basis with the following record and payment dates: 8.333 cents per share for February 2015 (record date of February 27, 2015 and payment … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending December 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Agree Realty (ADC): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.43. Alexandria REIT (ARE): now $0.74 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.72. Associated Estates Realty (AEC): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Cameco (CCJ): now C$0.10 per share quarterly … Read more

Are the Oil & Gas Markets Doomed?

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Q: Are the oil and gas markets doomed? Valuentum’s Brian Nelson: In short, no. For one, if we thought the oil and gas space (XLE) were doomed, we would not be holding onto Chevron (CVX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) in the Dividend Growth portfolio. Instead, I think what we are witnessing in the oil and gas market is a flight to quality and balance-sheet strength. Our outlook for oil and gas equities has not changed before or after the recent fall in energy prices. Valuentum’s thesis accepts the fact that crude oil (USO) and natural gas prices will be extremely volatile, and that’s why we’ve gravitated toward firms such as Chevron, which has the strongest balance … Read more

Investing In Teen Retail Is Like Rolling the Dice

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There’s probably nothing more difficult to do in all of investing than predict the fashion trends of teenagers. Every season it seems there’s something new, and what was “in” a few weeks ago is now yesterday’s news. To me, predicting what kids will wear during each of the four seasons of the year is like asking my three-year-old what he did at school today: the answer is not always clear. Others say it’s like rolling the dice at the craps table. Very few firms make it in teen retail, and recent results reveal why. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) An excerpt from Abercrombie & Fitch’s third-quarter report: “As referenced in our earlier Business Update, our third quarter results were disappointing in … Read more

Kinder Morgan: A Dividend Growth Investor’s Dream

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Rich Kinder and I see eye to eye quite often. The riskiness of the master limited partnership (MLP) structure is not something to scoff at, especially in the face of declining crude oil prices. Kinder Morgan (KMI) will finalize the roll-up of its MLP subsidiaries come end of year, and we think holders of Kinder Morgan will literally reap dividends on the move. Yesterday brought news that the firm expects to declare dividends of $2 per share in 2015 and post $500 million of excess dividend coverage. The concept of excess dividend coverage is nothing new at Valuentum, as the Dividend Cushion focuses intensively on this very idea. The increase would represent a 16% move over the 2014 budget of $1.72 per share … Read more

Booyah! Jim Cramer Under Attack!

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TheStreet’s director, major shareholder, and employee is under fire from an activist investor that has disclosed a near-9% stake. Per SEC Filing: J. Carlo CannellCannell Capital LLCP.O. Box 3459, 150 East Hansen Avenue, Jackson, WY 83001(307) 733-2284 Mr. James J. CramerDirectorTheStreet, Inc.14 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005   Cannell Capital LLC – that twenty-two-year-old SEC-registered investment advisor which manages sundry accounts that collectively owned 8.95% percent of TheStreet,Inc. (“TST” or the “Company”) as of December 2, 2014 – hereby amends its filing position as regards TST from passive to active because certain matters of governance concern it. The structure of your relationship with TST leads these concerns. Allow me to review some facts. 1. The market capitalization of TST has … Read more

Gilead Sciences: The Going Rate for a Stock Analyst These Days?

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Image Source: September 2014 Best Ideas Newsletter, page 9 If there is one thing that I would encourage all of you to do when looking at your holdings in your portfolio it would be to look at their long-term charts. There is nothing that provides greater perspective than looking at historical performance and assessing when price moves may just be reasonable profit-taking (and/or risk-mitigation) versus something more serious. You don’t have to be a highly-trained technician to know that a 5% pullback on a stock that has more than quintupled is a meaningless move. Case in point: Gilead Sciences (GILD). I want you to check your stocks every day, if you feel the need, but you shouldn’t make assessments on … Read more

Valuentum Update – Post-Thanksgiving

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Hi members, We hope you had a long and happy holiday weekend with your families! I wanted to touch base today for a variety of reasons. I received a few emails over the holiday weekend regarding a couple of the newsletter portfolio holdings that are trading down with the markets.  Nothing out of the ordinary, but for those who are new to the stock market, this may be a bit startling and confusing. If you didn’t know already, we target the best ideas to converge to intrinsic value over a 12-24 month period, and sometimes longer, if market conditions do not cooperate. First, you should be aware of the collapse in crude oil prices (1). As it relates to the … Read more