Brian Nelson

Are the Oil & Gas Markets Doomed?

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Q: Are the oil and gas markets doomed? Valuentum’s Brian Nelson: In short, no. For one, if we thought the oil and gas space (XLE) were doomed, we would not be holding onto Chevron (CVX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) in the Dividend Growth portfolio. Instead, I think what we are witnessing in the oil and gas market is a flight to quality and balance-sheet strength. Our outlook for oil and gas equities has not changed before or after the recent fall in energy prices. Valuentum’s thesis accepts the fact that crude oil (USO) and natural gas prices will be extremely volatile, and that’s why we’ve gravitated toward firms such as Chevron, which has the strongest balance … Read more

Investing In Teen Retail Is Like Rolling the Dice

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There’s probably nothing more difficult to do in all of investing than predict the fashion trends of teenagers. Every season it seems there’s something new, and what was “in” a few weeks ago is now yesterday’s news. To me, predicting what kids will wear during each of the four seasons of the year is like asking my three-year-old what he did at school today: the answer is not always clear. Others say it’s like rolling the dice at the craps table. Very few firms make it in teen retail, and recent results reveal why. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) An excerpt from Abercrombie & Fitch’s third-quarter report: “As referenced in our earlier Business Update, our third quarter results were disappointing in … Read more

Kinder Morgan: A Dividend Growth Investor’s Dream

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Rich Kinder and I see eye to eye quite often. The riskiness of the master limited partnership (MLP) structure is not something to scoff at, especially in the face of declining crude oil prices. Kinder Morgan (KMI) will finalize the roll-up of its MLP subsidiaries come end of year, and we think holders of Kinder Morgan will literally reap dividends on the move. Yesterday brought news that the firm expects to declare dividends of $2 per share in 2015 and post $500 million of excess dividend coverage. The concept of excess dividend coverage is nothing new at Valuentum, as the Dividend Cushion focuses intensively on this very idea. The increase would represent a 16% move over the 2014 budget of $1.72 per share … Read more

Booyah! Jim Cramer Under Attack!

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TheStreet’s director, major shareholder, and employee is under fire from an activist investor that has disclosed a near-9% stake. Per SEC Filing: J. Carlo CannellCannell Capital LLCP.O. Box 3459, 150 East Hansen Avenue, Jackson, WY 83001(307) 733-2284 Mr. James J. CramerDirectorTheStreet, Inc.14 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005   Cannell Capital LLC – that twenty-two-year-old SEC-registered investment advisor which manages sundry accounts that collectively owned 8.95% percent of TheStreet,Inc. (“TST” or the “Company”) as of December 2, 2014 – hereby amends its filing position as regards TST from passive to active because certain matters of governance concern it. The structure of your relationship with TST leads these concerns. Allow me to review some facts. 1. The market capitalization of TST has … Read more

Gilead Sciences: The Going Rate for a Stock Analyst These Days?

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Image Source: September 2014 Best Ideas Newsletter, page 9 If there is one thing that I would encourage all of you to do when looking at your holdings in your portfolio it would be to look at their long-term charts. There is nothing that provides greater perspective than looking at historical performance and assessing when price moves may just be reasonable profit-taking (and/or risk-mitigation) versus something more serious. You don’t have to be a highly-trained technician to know that a 5% pullback on a stock that has more than quintupled is a meaningless move. Case in point: Gilead Sciences (GILD). I want you to check your stocks every day, if you feel the need, but you shouldn’t make assessments on … Read more

Valuentum Update – Post-Thanksgiving

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Hi members, We hope you had a long and happy holiday weekend with your families! I wanted to touch base today for a variety of reasons. I received a few emails over the holiday weekend regarding a couple of the newsletter portfolio holdings that are trading down with the markets.  Nothing out of the ordinary, but for those who are new to the stock market, this may be a bit startling and confusing. If you didn’t know already, we target the best ideas to converge to intrinsic value over a 12-24 month period, and sometimes longer, if market conditions do not cooperate. First, you should be aware of the collapse in crude oil prices (1). As it relates to the … Read more

Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Were Weak…

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According to preliminary survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation, retail sales during the Thanksgiving weekend tumbled 11% to $50.9 billion from $57.4 billion during the same weekend last year. Executives are having a difficult time explaining the sharp drop off in retail sales (RTH), given similar aggressive strategies and promotions as previous years, but we think there are a few reasons for the hefty decline. For one, the lure of the post-Thanksgiving “mad-rush” may be wearing off, and the emerging “negative” social stigma of those willing to shop (instead of resting with family) coupled with those who believe they are “being forced to work” during the holiday (see Walmart strike) without fair wages may be turning off … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending November 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Becton, Dickinson (BDX): now $0.60 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.545. Capital City Bank (CCBG): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.02. Glacier Bancorp (GBCI): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. Hormel Foods (HRL): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. McCormick & Company (MKC): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Merck (MRK): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

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Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more