Brian Nelson

Valuentum’s Guide to Recent Market Turmoil

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The global equity markets continue to face immense selling pressure.    Chinese markets have wiped out roughly $4.5 trillion in wealth the past couple months alone, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average today racked up its fourth consecutive 200-point loss, the longest streak in its storied history. Major US market indices, including the S&P 500, are in “correction” territory, which is defined as a 10% decline or more from their recent highs.   For those that have been following Valuentum’s work, you know that we’ve been all over the recent developments, putting readers far ahead of the market movements. From the email alerts on removing the positions in Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer Partners to trimming the position in Apple to retaining outsize 30%+ cash positions in both newsletter … Read more

The Nelson Tweet

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The following is what Mr. Nelson wrote at ~6:30am this morning in advance of the day’s trading. Open up 600, finish lower on China fears? — Brian Nelson, CFA (@ValuentumBrian) August 25, 2015

China Eases to Support Country’s Stock Bubble; US Markets Cheer Behavior?

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Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets (FXI) since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at a median reported earnings multiple of 60+ times, according to Bloomberg. After direct government intervention in the country’s markets failed, China has now moved to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements, and this somehow has the US markets cheering. Does such irrational behavior by US investors finally mark the peak? Here are 5 observations worth noting. 1. The Financial and Capital Markets are Fragile If the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 taught this generation anything, it was a lesson in the fragility of the financial and capital markets … Read more

Is the Time Right to Invest in Home Improvement?

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The US housing market has been hot this summer. Both purchases of previously-owned homes and residential housing starts reached their highest monthly levels in the month of July since 2007. The improved demand has been driven by a resilient labor market, historically-low mortgage rates and “pent-up” demand from the Great Recession. Purchases of previously-owned homes advanced 2% sequentially in July to an annualized rate of 5.59 million houses, handily beating consensus estimates of 5.43 million. The increased levels of demand come despite limited support from first-time buyers, however. Millennials, now coming of age, are making their first “rent-versus-buy” decisions, and many, having witnessed the housing bubble burst late last decade, aren’t viewing ownership as the wise investment decision that their … Read more

The Debt Bubble Is Deflating; Will It Pop?

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The fundamental concerns surrounding the financial health of China-dependent companies across the globe are tangible, and the risk of a currency crisis and eventual credit crunch are real, if they aren’t already happening. Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), the fourth-largest iron ore producer in the world, announced over the weekend, that profits were nearly completely wiped out (down nearly 90%) for the fiscal year ending June 30, even as the firm shipped 33% more tons of iron ore during the period over last year’s mark. The largest iron ore producers, BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO), are only adding to production overcapacity, conditions that are wreaking havoc on the commodity price. Iron ore prices are to remain under pressure as … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 21

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending August 21. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altria (MO): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Brinker (EAT): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Community Bank System (CBU): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. Connecticut Water Service (CTWS): now $0.2675 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2575. Dillard’s (DDS): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. Ferrellgas Partners (FGP): now $0.51 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. FirstMerit … Read more

The Dow Crashes 531 Points

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Missed Vauentum’s pre-crash commentary? See here. Memories of the Financial Crisis are still vivid in our mind. The framed front pages of the Wall Street Journal reporting the demise of Lehman, AIG and WaMu on those fateful days in 2008 drape the walls of the Valuentum office as a stark reminder of the fragility of the financial and capital markets. We’re not alone. Many investors remember seeing their savings cut to pieces at the depth of Financial Crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), in collapsing 531 points Friday, has captured those same individuals’ attention…again. They haven’t forgotten the pain of the years of the credit crunch when they wondered whether they’d ever be able to retire during the dreadful … Read more

FAQ: I LOVE YOUR CONTENT!!! Can you help me navigate your website better?

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FAQ: I LOVE YOUR CONTENT!!! Can you help me navigate your website better? A: Absolutely. Here are some key steps to make sure you find what you are looking for as quickly and easily as possible. 1. Make sure that you are logged in to the website. If you access the home page, and it doesn’t say “Welcome, you are logged in” at the top underneath the grey navigation bar, you won’t be able to access the premium content on the website. To rectify this, please be sure to enter your login credentials in the ‘Member Login’ section on the top left column of the home page to get started. 2. Once you are logged in, you now have access … Read more

The Flight to Safety

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Image Source: Pravine Chester It’s no secret that investors have been disappointed with returns across the equity market in 2015, and this week has not made the unrest any easier to deal with. Money managers across the globe will be looking at a short-term chart of the S&P 500 (SPY), observing that the broad US index has finally broken down from a critical multi-month base, and many will look to “lighten up” on some of their equity positions that they have been reluctantly “letting run” for months. It is no surprise to us why Netflix (NFLX) was one of the market’s worst performers in Thursday’s trading session. The company is trading at nearly 500 times earnings (not a typo), and the low … Read more

Potash Miners Digging Themselves a Hole

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The global potash industry is a highly profitable one, known for its high margins and high barriers to entry; the former has attracted the investments of high-profile mining companies Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP Billiton (BHP). This, along with the disbanding of the Belarusian Potash Company has brought about concerns of the stability of the global potash market. The market was formerly dominated–and pricing was more or less controlled–by two informal cartels, the Belarusian Potash Company and Canpotex. Following the disbanding of the former, the competition for pricing power and market share has intensified, and many fear that this will lead to an oversupply in the market. Russian potash producer Uralkali withdrew from the Belarusian Potash Company in the summer … Read more