Brian Nelson

Stocks That Are Cheap on Both a DCF and Relative Value Basis

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We think stocks that are undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow (DCF) basis and a relative value basis may be attractive to the pure value investor. Stocks that we consider undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow basis and on a relative value basis, if not already rated a 9 or 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), may soon become highly-rated on the index once/if their technical/momentum indicators improve. We think a screen like the one described may be one to monitor closely for new ideas (if Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas and/or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio ideas are not of interest). Importantly, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the Valuentum Buying Index into practice, while the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio combines our … Read more

Dividend Yields to Consider Avoiding!

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Image Source: Eugene Zemlyanskiy By Brian Nelson, CFA As many investors know, a company’s stock can often become cheap for good reasons. That is, the stock is not trading cheaply because of Mr. Market’s irrational behavior, but instead is trading at depressed levels due to deteriorating underlying fundamental characteristics that actually justify its current share price, even if traditional valuation techniques (read multiple analysis) suggest the firm’s shares are inexpensive. On a similar note, firms that boast high dividend yields may do so because the market has little confidence in the sustainability of its dividend and believes a cut may be just around the corner. Though we fall short of saying stocks with materially negative Dividend Cushion ratios–our dividend-cut predictive … Read more

Post-Earnings Update: AbbVie

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Image Source: Global Panorama AbbVie’s top-line performance has been relatively strong (unlike its big pharma peers), translating into a generous dividend–further enhancing the appeal of the equity. But is the company’s attractive fundamentals about to change? Let’s take a look at AbbVie’s fundamentals following its second-quarter report, released July 28. By Alexander J. Poulos Overview One of the main appeals of big-pharma companies such as AbbVie (ABBV) and peers Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Pfizer (PFE) is their comparatively attractive dividend-yield potential as high margins generated from patent-protected compounds lead to internally generated cash flows above the funding needs of the business. As long as big pharma firms can continue to churn out a steady stream of new products … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 11

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending August 11. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Badger Meter (BMI): now $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.115. Black Stone Minerals (BSM): now $0.3125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2875. Buckeye Partners (BPL): now $1.2625 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.25. CAE (CAE): now CAD 0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.08. Carlisle (CSL): now $0.37 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Carlyle (CG): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. … Read more

Chicago Bridge’s Troubles Continue

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Image Source: Chicago Bridge We’ve lowered our fair value estimate for Chicago Bridge & Iron. By Kris Rosemann We’ve lowered our fair value estimate to $18 from $34 and widened our margin of safety for Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) after it cut its bottom-line guidance for 2017 and suspended its dividend August 11. Management may not have the best handle on its business at the moment, as evidenced by the number of projects it was forced to take a significant charge on doubling from two to four from the first to the second quarter of 2017. The bottom-line guidance reduction can be used as evidence of how precise and transparent management has been of late. The company expects second … Read more

North Korea and the Bomb

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Tensions between the United States and North Korea have heightened, and we may look to August 2017 as the dawn of yet another Cold War. The news has little impact on our thesis, however. Stocks generally remain overvalued, and some of them considerably. Let’s cover a few stocks in the news and reiterate our generally positive stance on defense contractors, two of our favorites recently highlighted in the Nelson Exclusive publication. Learn more about the Nelson Exclusive here. “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” Trump said, arms crossed, from his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Tuesday. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” – CNN, … Read more

ETF Analysis: Banks and Financials

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Please select the image below to download the report. Tickerized for ETFs under coverage and stocks included in the XLF.

Discovery-Scripps Joining Forces to Take on the Changing Digital Media Landscape

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Image Source: Lwp Kommunikáció Discovery Communications has agreed to acquire Scripps Networks, but will it be enough for the two to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving–and consolidating–media landscape? By Kris Rosemann The cable TV industry is not what it was only a few short years ago, and Discovery Communications (DISCA) finally getting its hands on the assets of Scripps Networks (SNI) is only further evidence of this. Both companies have had a relative amount of success in delivering compelling programming to targeted audiences in years past via traditional pay-TV channels, but the days of tuning in to Shark Week on The Discovery Channel through your local cable provider are fading fast. The cord-cutting revolution is one that has been well-covered … Read more

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva

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Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Generic Drug Deflation Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) maintains its position as one of the world’s largest manufacturer of generic medications, but the marketplace for a generic drug differs from the market dynamics of the branded space. We view … Read more